Thread by @TrentTelenko

This is another sub-tweet 🧵in response to one of mine on the difficulty of sanctions stopping commercial electronics from reaching Russia.

This line in the thread is killer:
"Trying to stop them getting out would be like trying to stop the flow of screwdrivers."

See👇
1/n

https://twitter.com/6502_ftw/status/1592930218934927360

The difficulty of stopping the grey market electronic component trade to Russia doesn't mean it should not be tried.

It can and should be.

The issue is how difficult, costly, and unreliable sanctions can make the supply chain for Russian high tech weapons.

2/n

Production lines need parts at a rate that can support production.

Simply making it so that the full build of materials needed for a finished drone or missile are highly irregular in showing will have the same sort of effect as strategic bombing.

You reduce both the total
3/n

...number built and their quality because incomplete drones, missiles or vehicles will accumulate awaiting that one chip needed to complete them.

Then you have to dig through multiple levels of sub-components to install that electronic fiddly bit to make what Russia is
4/n

...producing work.

And the very act of removing things to get to that one spot on a printed circuit board to install a chip will introduce some amount of electro-static discharge (ESD) damage whenever the Russian worker doing isn't being *very* careful.

5/n

Economic sanctions are a form of "Attrition Warfare."

The point of sanctions isn't about "It must be be perfect or it is a failure."

It is about making the target of sanction work harder and pay more to achieve a specific economic or military capability.

6/n

Sanctions targeting commercial electronic components found in Russian weapons won't stop the grey trade

What it will do is force Russia to pay grey market dealers a "Risk Premium" to get the electronics & make their consistent delivery to support a production line impossible
7/n

A recent post on Strategypage-dot-com made clear the western component problem & China's sensitivity to the risk of secondary sanctions.

Procurement: Mobilizing Russian Industry For War
strategypage.com/htmw/htproc/ar…
8/n

Russia's gangster state's biggest weakness is its inability to effectively administer complicated supply chains.

Everyone steals, everyone lies, everyone gets a piece of the grift and few are punished for doing so.

9/n

Western sanctions on commercial electronics push Russia's military supply chain farther into 'Grey Zone' where there are more opportunities for traditional Russian theft, lies and taking a percentage.

This is why "Attrition" is often called the strongest form of warfare.

10/10