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Nov 23 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/…

This is claimed to be "bombshell new polling" but no new polling is mentioned. #VicVotes
Perhaps because of the paywall some people are confusing this story with the Mulgrave exit poll rubbish. This one is analysis by Redbridge with seat predictions but how much polling is included, when and where from is not spelled out.
Non paywall version (I think) here
The front page says "current polling and focus groups suggests support for Labor [..] is sliding fast"

Focus groups do not measure changes in support or levels of support.

HS also calls a poll with 36-36 primaries "latest polling" but that's Resolve's numbers a few days ago.
There's a major disconnect between Redbridge's projections and seat betting, not that that is an argument against Redbridge since seat betting has often been wrong before. At least one of these will be wrong; ALP currently favourite in 52 seats on one market.

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More from @kevinbonham

Kevin Bonham Profile picture
Nov 25
"[..] told The Age the Coalition was on track for a “better result than anyone has publicly predicted”, with the party confident of picking up [..] Ashwood, Box Hill, Yan Yean, Ringwood and Melton."

Yan Yean?

theage.com.au/national/victo…
Yan Yean is on 16.9% but that is inflated by several points because the Liberal candidate was disendorsed last time. The real margin is probably more like 10-12%.
Yan Yean is also vacant and is outer metro so there are things going on there that should cause a large swing, explaining why it is far shorter in betting than others on similar margins. Would still be quite a bolter for it to fall.
Read 5 tweets
Kevin Bonham Profile picture
Nov 25
#Newspoll Vic (state) 54.5 to ALP
ALP 38 L-NP 35 Green 12 others 15
Andrews net -2 (46-48)
Guy net -25
Read 7 tweets
Kevin Bonham Profile picture
Nov 24
Blocked @mayorquimby123 for persistent bad faith debating but thought it was worth giving this a broader audience:

Defenders of Victorian Group Ticket Voting often argue that everything's fine because voters can easily just vote 1-5 and stop BTL. They're wrong. #VicVotes
The reason they're wrong in terms of fairness to voters is that a 1-5 and stop BTL vote is not a fully effective vote. It helps only 1-3 parties then exhausts. The effort barrier to expressing your own preferences between *all* parties is much greater.
Under GTV a voter who fully agrees with their party ticket can give full preferences by just numbering one box. A voter who does not agree with any party ticket needs to number every box to do so. That effort barrier is plainly and simply politically discriminatory and wrong.
Read 5 tweets
Kevin Bonham Profile picture
Nov 23
Debate on govt's electoral reform bill has moved to the area of much interest to me, public funding (S132). The Greens are now moving an amendment to remove the proposed 4% threshhold for public funding entirely (I support keeping it but to parties not candidates). #politas
There is a valid argument for a threshhold of some sort that isn't money-saving - discourage unnecessary proliferation of uncompetitive candidates/parties. Anyway, amendment defeated without division.
Labor now moving amendments to change from per-candidate funding to per-party funding. I support this change very strongly (there may be some discussion about exact wording.)
Read 20 tweets
Kevin Bonham Profile picture
Nov 23
This is circulating and is clearly illegal mis/disinfo. In fact (i) Sack Dan Andrews is a Druery thing not a Labor thing (ii) SDA preferences other micros (iii) SDA orderings of the major parties vary between tickets.

#VicVotes

@electionsvic
@electionsvic Indeed the major party orderings submitted by SDA not only vary as to which party is put first but also often chop and change the order of major party candidates (obfuscating which party is really being helped.)
(It may be the material originates outside Victoria but Victorians circulating it are republishing material that misleads in relation to the casting of a vote by making a false statement about the consequences of voting ATL for a party.)
Read 5 tweets
Kevin Bonham Profile picture
Nov 22
There's a stoush going on about this. It's another Lower House case where the preferences will definitely never reach the candidate concerned so it is all about symbolism, but some comments about it anyway. #VicVotes
Both major parties have put Baker-Pearce 5th. However the Liberals have put him above Animal Justice, Greens and Labor, while Labor has put him above the Liberal Democrats, Family First Victoria and Freedom Party Victoria.
Labor's card has some obvious up-down ordering to make the card easy to follow (this is common). The Liberal card has no such design and appears to be a conscious ordering.
Read 5 tweets

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