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Expound the profound-Cut'n thru bs 1 layer @a time Profile picture
@frankoz95967943
Nov 24, 2022 ā€¢ 19 tweets ā€¢ 6 min read ā€¢ Read on X
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We bears all want to see that epic crash.

There are so many things working against that happening.

A quick šŸ§µ Image
How did this go from 1T to 8T?
Its nearly the size of the feds balance sheet.

Its not a coincidence - corps took on debt and bought back stonk, executives paid in options got rich.

Even in stagflation, corps will do well - they are sitting on mountains of debt - those that globalized will benefit from incredible triage in labor rates around the world.

Habeeb in india is now nearly 20% cheaper to employ... Image
Stagflation makes US employees even MORE expensive - corps cant (or wont) afford; so more work will be shipped overseas, more ppl in america will fall behind.

US becomes more of an empty shell, 2 societies - one at the top making all the important decisions where labor will be employed and factories will be built and the other barely holding on

What is the counter argument?
And as you consider all this - consider this as well - thats 7T in injected capital.

Where will it go?

Say there is a crash - will ppl pull all their equity out of the market?

Will they buy commodities? Bonds? or just hoard cash?

Really think this one thru...
Here is Druk talking about the dollar.

US has a mountain of debt and its nearly impossible to impose new taxes without bringing the entire house of cards down.

So the fed will have to monetize.

This would weaken the dollar, stonks moon.
Anti-milkshake?

Nearly every corporation is doing same thing - taking on debt, buying back stonk- here is $UNH Image
$LOW Image
$AAPL Image
$GE is an interesting study - they are paying DOWN debt AND retiring shares....this might be set to explode higher next earnings.... ImageImage
$WMT is doing it Image
$TGT is doing it Image
But heres the problem - Trump had the best intentions when he cut corporate taxes; He then imposed HI import tarrifs on china - the idea - coerce corporations to invest domestically.

Make imports EXPENSIVE

Instead?

Corporations took the money and ran... Image
So now re-consider the "dollar will weaken" - ok - all these corps took on trillions in debt combined to buy back stonk.

They have to pay that back.

With what......rubles? yen? yuan?

#milkshake

@SantiagoAuFund
@SantiagoAuFund And when u rich the LAST thing you want is a tax event - aka selling shares.

Its MUCH better to just borrow against them.

Stonk buybacks make what you hold "more marginable" - aka - you can write ++loan against them.

This works so long as stonk goes up.
seekingalpha.com/news/3890287-pā€¦

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More from @frankoz95967943

Expound the profound-Cut'n thru bs 1 layer @a time Profile picture
Apr 14
This is a currency/trade/capital flows thread.

Stay with me - you will like this, but its complex....

Genomics is the study of DNA, and the RELATIONSHIPS (pay attn to that) of those genes and how they interact with each other.

šŸ‘‡šŸ§µ
DNA is like the instruction manual for building that castle. It tells your body how to grow and what it should look like. It's like a super long, twisty ladder inside tiny parts of you called cells.
Genes are like the special LEGO bricks in the instruction manual. Each gene has instructions for a specific part of you, like your eye color or how tall you might grow.
Read 19 tweets
Expound the profound-Cut'n thru bs 1 layer @a time Profile picture
Apr 12
There is a different way to look at the US that very people think about.

Namely, the flow of $$ from US out to the planet

When the world sends USA cheap goods, its not just deflationary,but its also massively beneficial to foreign asset h0dlrs.

This is a currency thread
šŸ§µšŸ‘‡
So first of all, understand trade.
US prints money, lends it into existence in US.
People use that $$ and buy stuff, usually from abroad.

They send us cheap crap, we send them worthless pieces of paper.
Its what they do with that cash is whats important.

Do they:
a) buy us Equities?
b) buy US debt?
c) lend it to other nations who need dollars?

Most countries internally do not use USD.
Read 54 tweets
Expound the profound-Cut'n thru bs 1 layer @a time Profile picture
Apr 6
Lets build.

This is the US02Y bond yield.

As yields on this debt instrument goes up?
The cost of borrowing goes up.

So when that green line goes up your credit card, variable mortgage, new car loan interest rate, student loan, all goes up.

The orange line is the SPR

šŸ§µšŸ‘‡ Image
the 2y going up is NOT bullish....but it can be FAKED to MAKE it bullish.

The US did 2 things:
a) print a FUCK ton of money to sell to the world to devalue its currency
b) fucked with the vix

here is b) Image
and here is a)

The whole point of this was to devalue its way out of trouble.

Its also why you can no longer afford groceries and why your job is going overseas.

When covid hit the govt had the excuse to intervene (1)

But then they just couldnt stop spending.... (2) Image
Read 8 tweets
Expound the profound-Cut'n thru bs 1 layer @a time Profile picture
Apr 1
In a currency war, you win by out "devaluing" your currency vs your trading partner.

You do this to gain market advantage - your products become CHEAPER than your competitor, killing your competitors industry.

The white line is china - when the white line goes up (9 of them) china devalued.

Notice that giant plunge near #4?

Notice the yellow line - thats global liquidity - and its inverted - so you can clearly see central bank interventions and its impact on the chinese currency.

G7 loaded up on debt, and out china'ed china....

Lately they stopped - because inflation now is raging.
šŸ§µšŸ‘‡Image
Remember - currencies are a RATIO.

So when chinas currency goes up on this chart - it gets WEAKER relative to USD.

Which means the USD gets STRONGER.

Stronger USD = bad for US exports, particularly to china.

It means China wins global trade vs US because everything is so cheap.Image
Tariffs equalize trade and offset this nonsense.

Tariffs make this cheap chinese export due to currency games less competitive.

US cannot control what china does, but it can control what it imports from china.

theguardian.com/us-news/2025/aā€¦
Read 49 tweets
Expound the profound-Cut'n thru bs 1 layer @a time Profile picture
Mar 31
Lets build -this is a short one, but if you been following a while, you know my view that the vix has been sanitized thru currencies (and suppressed)

Here is tech stonk - ndx.

šŸ§µšŸ‘‡ Image
add uvix - now a 1:1000 instrument after all the reverse splits - used to suppress long dated vix premium.

Uvix was launched 3 years ago to this day, 1 month after the poot invaded ukraine.

I firmly believe its a war powers entity designed to protect the stonk market. Image
Oil producers currencies.

On this chart - purple down means their currency got VERY strong relative to mexico (I use mexico to remove USD influence)

Notice the correlation to stonk..... Image
Read 23 tweets
Expound the profound-Cut'n thru bs 1 layer @a time Profile picture
Mar 24
Lets build.

This is the vix.

I am drawing it mid page for a reason - and you will see why shortly.
šŸ§µšŸ‘‡ Image
This is dxy and the vix.

No, the dxy is NOT the dollar - dxy is a "basket of currencies" mostly made up of the euro-pee

2nd chart zoomed in - notice the drop in dxy is associated with drop in vix - so what happened? Image
Image
The green line is the euro-pee
2nd chart zoomed in - do you see it?

Theres all this talk "money goes home" which is true, but not for the reason people think....

It was to bring down that vix thru currency channel - green line down, EUR stronger, USD weaker.

usd weaker - vix--

make sense?Image
Image
Read 19 tweets

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