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Expound the profound-Cut'n thru bs 1 layer @a time Profile picture
@frankoz95967943
Nov 24, 2022 • 19 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X
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We bears all want to see that epic crash.

There are so many things working against that happening.

A quick 🧵 Image
How did this go from 1T to 8T?
Its nearly the size of the feds balance sheet.

Its not a coincidence - corps took on debt and bought back stonk, executives paid in options got rich.

Even in stagflation, corps will do well - they are sitting on mountains of debt - those that globalized will benefit from incredible triage in labor rates around the world.

Habeeb in india is now nearly 20% cheaper to employ... Image
Stagflation makes US employees even MORE expensive - corps cant (or wont) afford; so more work will be shipped overseas, more ppl in america will fall behind.

US becomes more of an empty shell, 2 societies - one at the top making all the important decisions where labor will be employed and factories will be built and the other barely holding on

What is the counter argument?
And as you consider all this - consider this as well - thats 7T in injected capital.

Where will it go?

Say there is a crash - will ppl pull all their equity out of the market?

Will they buy commodities? Bonds? or just hoard cash?

Really think this one thru...
Here is Druk talking about the dollar.

US has a mountain of debt and its nearly impossible to impose new taxes without bringing the entire house of cards down.

So the fed will have to monetize.

This would weaken the dollar, stonks moon.
Anti-milkshake?

Nearly every corporation is doing same thing - taking on debt, buying back stonk- here is $UNH Image
$LOW Image
$AAPL Image
$GE is an interesting study - they are paying DOWN debt AND retiring shares....this might be set to explode higher next earnings.... ImageImage
$WMT is doing it Image
$TGT is doing it Image
But heres the problem - Trump had the best intentions when he cut corporate taxes; He then imposed HI import tarrifs on china - the idea - coerce corporations to invest domestically.

Make imports EXPENSIVE

Instead?

Corporations took the money and ran... Image
So now re-consider the "dollar will weaken" - ok - all these corps took on trillions in debt combined to buy back stonk.

They have to pay that back.

With what......rubles? yen? yuan?

#milkshake

@SantiagoAuFund
@SantiagoAuFund And when u rich the LAST thing you want is a tax event - aka selling shares.

Its MUCH better to just borrow against them.

Stonk buybacks make what you hold "more marginable" - aka - you can write ++loan against them.

This works so long as stonk goes up.
seekingalpha.com/news/3890287-p…

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More from @frankoz95967943

Expound the profound-Cut'n thru bs 1 layer @a time Profile picture
Jun 26
This is beef.

Since covid its up nearly 175%

Many of you eat hamburger and madonnas.

This is why madonna's is no longer affordable.
👇🧵 Image
Here is mcdonna's vs beef

"Oz - they didnt collapse with beef going up??!"

correct.

And there's raisons.... Image
Enter currencies - zimbabwe'ing the currency has implications for the underlying

when u c it Image
Read 15 tweets
Expound the profound-Cut'n thru bs 1 layer @a time Profile picture
Jun 25
The Final Reckoning - A Nation Consumes Itself
🧵👇

I study the vix, geopolitics and currencies - trying to make sense of what is actually happening in the context of sound bites we get here or there from government.

Its hard to paint an actual picture from a single sound bite or news article.

But when you put them all together you paint a tapestry - some call it a masterpiece - others call it a dystopian hellscape.

For each point I will try to include a relevant news topic.

Lets begin.
The U.S. is not just struggling; it's in a death spiral.

Driven by hyperinflation & desperation, the government is making choices that solidify its descent into kleptocracy and civil breakdown.

Here’s the terrifying truth that is unfolding
Crypto: Not Innovation, But Capitulation.

The government, facing a worthless dollar, is now frantically trying to contain crypto by regulating it into the banking system.

This isn't forward-thinking; it's a desperate attempt to co-opt the flight from fiat before total loss of control.

Its an admission the dollar is no longer a store of value which is pretty damning for a government to turn against its own currency like this.

#DeDollarization #CryptoControl

abcnews.go.com/Business/geniu…
Read 35 tweets
Expound the profound-Cut'n thru bs 1 layer @a time Profile picture
Jun 17
Lets build.

This is my calculated vix.
The higher it goes the higher the vix should be.

👇🧵 Image
It is a function of bond yields.
Bond yields SLOW the markets down.
Its MORE expensive to borrow

The west runs on finance- price of debt (the yield) matters a lot, just like it matters to you when you buy a car a house or put chipotle on credit. Image
Zoomed in on right side Image
Read 42 tweets
Expound the profound-Cut'n thru bs 1 layer @a time Profile picture
Jun 17
A while back i calculated what the vix SHOULD be based on yields.

(1) you can see clear correlation
(2) it broke but the peaks still match
🧵👇 Image
The vix is a function of bond yields. Image
Read 9 tweets
Expound the profound-Cut'n thru bs 1 layer @a time Profile picture
May 5
Currency fiddling.
Pegs.
Making your currency artificially weaker -

This is all great when you are attempting to game the system.

Until one day it blows up in your face.

👇🧵 Image
I have an open quiz, go ahead and take it before moving forward - cause its important to understand the game....
So what happened to TWD?

well, the game is "make our currency weaker so we can export more"

This has been going on a long time - they arent the only ones doing this.
Read 48 tweets
Expound the profound-Cut'n thru bs 1 layer @a time Profile picture
Apr 23
Its wednesday.

Lets break your brain again.

This is a currency thread.
🧵👇
This is complex, so clear your mind, get some coffee and relax.

You are in charge of a country call it "MyCountry" with a currency called "Denaro's"

In the past you invested heavily to build your factories and vities to make things as efficient (read low cost) as possible.
Now you want to increase trade.

What do you do?

You weaken your currency - now, your products compared to the world are cheaper than anywhere else.

Your orders explode.
Read 59 tweets

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