Thread by @cirnosad

Why did Russia pull out of Kherson city and the right bank? And why did it only pull out after annexing it? Let's go through some misconceptions and see what comes next. 🧵

Falsities:
1. Kherson was under no threat of falling, Russia had trounced Ukraine in every confrontation.

2. Logistics were not yet threatened, the bridge was up until the Russians destroyed it themselves and they had plenty of ferries.
3. Though there were threats of dam destruction, given its structure it would have taken something on the order of a nuclear bomb to do it.

4. Overall, not that many troops were tied up in Kherson so displacing them into other areas would not provide sufficient force concentration to justify the political expense.
5. Kherson city was not offered up under any kind of political deal, so Russia got nothing out of that.

So why did Russia do it?
It's quite simple and it's the same reason Russia pulled out of Kharkov: Russia wants to win the war not battles. It does not need to win the battle in Kherson through the narrow/vulnerable logistics it provides.
It didn't need to hold Kharkov countryside

Russia is minimizing all its vulnerabilities inside Ukraine, still using a minimum force.

You see, Russia doesn't want to capture territory YET. It first wants to destroy Ukraine, through depopulation, decapitation and destruction of infrastructure. [We'll get on why soon]

Prior to leaving Kherson, Russia ensured the city could no longer be used. The electrical, communication and water infrastructure was scuttled. The winter will not be kind to what remains of the city and most inhabitants have already evacuated. Kherson is basically no man's land.

The objective for Kiev is a mirror reflection, it needs to restore control over territory and maintain order/life in the ones it still holds. The urgency is on Kiev's side here, not Russia's. It depends on the impression that it can win for continued foreign aid &Russia knows it.

[An aside: Russia has secondary objectives, to destroy much of NATO's military potential and I would say it has achieved 30% of that -- and it would love to give the impression that Ukraine can still win to goad them to send more weapons and treasure into the Kievian black hole.]

As one of the harshest winters on record approaches, Russia is on the verge of plunging Kiev's infrastructure into the abyss. It's worse than it seems due to secondary effects such as sanitation and damage to piping due to freezing. Cities will become as uninhabitable as Kherson.

Many civilians will flee Ukraine for the EU (some to Russia), filtering themselves in the process and making things even worse for NATO whose resources will drain faster.

The remaining resources will dwindle down to bare necessities for well-connected individuals...

... But the state in Kiev needs to continue to function -- and this is what Russia is counting on. With civilians in the dark, everything belonging to the state will light up like a Christmas tree. The next phase of the war, SMO 2, will begin.

Russia can develop its next attacks in one or more of many direction, it has a lot of options and that is what makes it so dangerous and has compelled the US to beg for negotiations (fruitlessly).

Think about it from Kiev's perspective...

When Russia attacks, it will also make the situation even harder for Kiev. It will most likely capture NPPs and shut them down safely. It will move to block or destroy critical logistical infrastructure. It will decapitate much of the SBU.

Russia wants to win at minimal expense.

That is why depopulation is a must -- it achieves denazification.
That's why goading on attacks is a must -- it achieves demilitarisation. [NOTE: I've left aside the nuclear dimension to keep things simple]
That leaves one final question, why the annexation prior to pullout?

The truth is, Russia annexed Kherson just after making the decision to pull out of it. It did so for a simple reason: it will now need to capture the entire right bank in order to restore Kherson, as the Kremlin is legally obliged to do.
The Kremlin burnt the bridge behind it.

Russia will victoriously enter Kherson, from the right bank, all the way from Kiev, through Krivoy Rog and Nikolaev, with Russia conquering ghost towns and graveyards. There will be no catharsis for on-lookers, Ukraine will already have been defeated. /End

By the way: Had Russia not pulled out of Kharkov, I would have thought SMO 2 would never come. With Russia pulling out of Kherson after annexing it, it's all but a certainty.