Really interesting thread from @biancoresearch, which if you've seen my tweets on Pros' (and markets') reliability in inflation forecasting, suggest you should *not* bet on a US recession. My research also suggests recession is less likely given (largely unnoticed) US capex boom.
https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1595818074904571905
Thread 2/4...Indeed, the US slowdown - yes, slowing is coming - probably will look a lot like the inverse of the (revised away) US "recession" of 2001 where a sharp plunge in capex was offset by very strong house building (the start of the housing boom that triggered the GFC...
Thread 3/4 Where I disagree with @biancoresearch is on the outlook for equities. Booming capex with input costs falling & solid US hshld income & savings? That suggests better-thanexpected earnings, & while rates markets still underprice the Fed, most of real rates pain is done.
Thread 4/4 Interested in my fuller #outlook for 2023 and the cognitive dissonance of profession forecasters? Read all about it here: thematicmarkets.substack.com/p/clash-of-the…
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