Marvin Barth's strategic vision to navigate uncertainty: a unique perspective differentiated by ~30yrs of high-level policy and cross-market experience.
Dec 17, 2023 • 26 tweets • 5 min read
@biancoresearch with a very nice thread on the increasing group-think a the Fed & its associated costs. Well worth the read. This is a topic I’ve thought a lot about, and have some further thoughts upon.
2/x 1st important note is the difference in selection process for Fed Board Governors & Bank Presidents.
Governors, including the Chair, serve 14 year terms & have permanent FOMC voting rights. They are nominated by the President & confirmed by the Senate. The Chair must be…
Nov 24, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Really interesting thread from @biancoresearch, which if you've seen my tweets on Pros' (and markets') reliability in inflation forecasting, suggest you should *not* bet on a US recession. My research also suggests recession is less likely given (largely unnoticed) US capex boom.
Thread 2/4...Indeed, the US slowdown - yes, slowing is coming - probably will look a lot like the inverse of the (revised away) US "recession" of 2001 where a sharp plunge in capex was offset by very strong house building (the start of the housing boom that triggered the GFC...
Oct 18, 2022 • 15 tweets • 3 min read
“Russell Napier is copying your research!” My inbox exploded after this interview was published.
Yes, a capex boom is underway. But it is already a decade old, US centric, and its causes and consequences are quite different from Napier’s thesis.
A powerful US capex boom began ~2012. 10y-average capex/GDP now is near its highest in half a century. Nobody seems to have noticed precisely because it looks more like a “plateau” than the boom/bust pattern of the past.
