@ArchiteuthisDx@ShaiDardashti@silverbull0@benbakhshi The big question, which applies to $RDI as well. But the people involved aren't getting younger. I feel comfortable with the horizons today, whereas more like five years ago, I would not have been interested.
@ArchiteuthisDx@ShaiDardashti@silverbull0@benbakhshi I was noting to another friend that I view $BX as an analog, especially to $VNO today; I remember studying the former when it was selling for $5 in 2009. I did not buy; possibly my biggest mistake of omission.
@ArchiteuthisDx@ShaiDardashti@silverbull0@benbakhshi But the point I made to him was that $BX was never a great *trade*, especially before 2021. Yet, it was a sensational *investment* from 2009 until today, with monstrous dividends for most of the way.
@ArchiteuthisDx@ShaiDardashti@silverbull0@benbakhshi Perhaps this never goes away, but the biggest mistake that I see in investing is everybody being deeply concerned about the next one year, with total silence regarding the next ten. With real estate, we #neversell.
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@benbakhshi@HotRockCapital In reflecting on the past two decades or more of investing, a phenomenon—or bifurcation—that I see might be considered as (1) "backbone compounding" and (2) seeking optionality.
@benbakhshi@HotRockCapital Meaning that nearly everybody will not outperform—over very long periods—a classic Buffett-style "moat" business, especially with dividends reinvested.
@benbakhshi@HotRockCapital One close friend bought a bunch of stocks in the early '00s, but he didn't care about stocks, and literally forgot about his portfolio. Single best financial move he ever made! He woke up in the late 2010s and texted me, "dude, I've still got $MSFT, $BRK," etc.!
@chartin9s $FMG was a Leucadia blowout because the deal included a royalty. Further, Inmet Mining's (today $FM:TSE) Cobre Las Cruces deal was another low-profile homerun: fasken.com/en/solution/cl…
@chartin9s Amazingly, there is a target today that combines all of that into one structure: an iron ore and copper royalty play. It iterates those past deals...
@benbakhshi@AlanLevinson10 Recession may hit certain industries and locations far harder than others. For example, NYC suburbs got crushed in '08-'09, but less so Palo Alto. Today, raw materials industries may be much less impacted than tech, housing, etc.
@benbakhshi@AlanLevinson10 Also, I feel that—as abstract as this sounds—inflation distributes liquidity better through the economy than was the case during '11-'12 disinflation.
@benbakhshi@AlanLevinson10 For example, a decade ago it felt that there was no cash in Rust Belt locations, while QE was swelling financial centers with liquidity. This warped the economy...
@alsynergy2020@ShaiDardashti@silverbull0@benbakhshi He provides a template for real-assets investing: from shoe manufacturing to cleaning clothes, into wealth denomination in land and horses! There was an era—namely the 1940s to 1970s—when that sort of thing is what defined wealth. It is forgotten...
“They used to ask him: ‘Mr. Isaac, how do you measure in times of high inflation how you are doing this year?’ and he said: ‘If I have one more apartment, one more hectare of farm, one more cow.’ He measured real assets.”
@benbakhshi Some of the lowest prices per square foot are available today in stocks on a look-through basis. I believe that our cost basis for $DAFL (DuArt) is around $8 per square foot in Midtown Manhattan. Today the building is being marketed by JLL at $50 per square foot.
@benbakhshi As you know, we pursue this exact core competency as well; below is excerpted from Steve Roth's 2004 $VNO annual report:
@benbakhshi Below is our winning team today, where we ride with Roth, and actually have done better than him with yield in both $SRG and $CPPTL, the former Sears and Penney: