Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #neversell
Most recents (13)
@ArchiteuthisDx @ShaiDardashti @silverbull0 @benbakhshi The big question, which applies to $RDI as well. But the people involved aren't getting younger. I feel comfortable with the horizons today, whereas more like five years ago, I would not have been interested.
@ArchiteuthisDx @ShaiDardashti @silverbull0 @benbakhshi I was noting to another friend that I view $BX as an analog, especially to $VNO today; I remember studying the former when it was selling for $5 in 2009. I did not buy; possibly my biggest mistake of omission.
@ArchiteuthisDx @ShaiDardashti @silverbull0 @benbakhshi But the point I made to him was that $BX was never a great *trade*, especially before 2021. Yet, it was a sensational *investment* from 2009 until today, with monstrous dividends for most of the way.
@alsynergy2020 @ShaiDardashti @silverbull0 @benbakhshi A highly successful developer from my area; once when asked if he would sell any of his real estate, his response was: "Sell our real estate? We don't sell real estate. We buy real estate."
legacy.com/us/obituaries/…
legacy.com/us/obituaries/…
@alsynergy2020 @ShaiDardashti @silverbull0 @benbakhshi He provides a template for real-assets investing: from shoe manufacturing to cleaning clothes, into wealth denomination in land and horses! There was an era—namely the 1940s to 1970s—when that sort of thing is what defined wealth. It is forgotten...
@alsynergy2020 @ShaiDardashti @silverbull0 @benbakhshi Or the classic:
“They used to ask him: ‘Mr. Isaac, how do you measure in times of high inflation how you are doing this year?’ and he said: ‘If I have one more apartment, one more hectare of farm, one more cow.’ He measured real assets.”
— Eduardo Elsztain (on his grandfather)
“They used to ask him: ‘Mr. Isaac, how do you measure in times of high inflation how you are doing this year?’ and he said: ‘If I have one more apartment, one more hectare of farm, one more cow.’ He measured real assets.”
— Eduardo Elsztain (on his grandfather)
Re-reading Capital Returns: Investing Through the Capital Cycle
h/t Han Lue for the Hard Copy
h/t Han Lue for the Hard Copy
"The Capital Cycle analysis/approach is used to understand how changes in the amount of capital employed within an industry are likely to impact future returns. How is the competitive position of a company affected by changes in the industries supply side?"
"Executive pay is frequently linked to a company's size. The incentives are skewed for managers to favor growth. There is evidence that managers with an ownership stake are more likely to *shrink* capital employed through buybacks."
My Investment Process
It starts with a 6 parts diagram.
1⃣Signal: idea origination.
2⃣Filtering: To kill, watchList or research the idea
3⃣Research: DD
4⃣Portfolio Mgt: enter/exit, sizing
5⃣Portfolio Maintenance: continuous eval on/off ER seasons.
6⃣Execution
🧵
#Investing
It starts with a 6 parts diagram.
1⃣Signal: idea origination.
2⃣Filtering: To kill, watchList or research the idea
3⃣Research: DD
4⃣Portfolio Mgt: enter/exit, sizing
5⃣Portfolio Maintenance: continuous eval on/off ER seasons.
6⃣Execution
🧵
#Investing
Principles:
🟢Process is NOT static, it is a living one. I continuously evaluate/improve it. Thus welcome u feedback.
🟢Measurement is prerequisite to improvement - I try to measure each moving piece.
🟢Post mortem often, and embrace mistakes.
🟢Process is NOT static, it is a living one. I continuously evaluate/improve it. Thus welcome u feedback.
🟢Measurement is prerequisite to improvement - I try to measure each moving piece.
🟢Post mortem often, and embrace mistakes.
1⃣Signal-idea generation.
🟢I have 5-6 core areas and follow 8-12 stocks in each area. It is my organic idea gen source.
🟢events: macro data, insider buy, etc
🟢I follow like-minded(better) investors.
Signals are not equal. Ideal when multiple ones pointing to 1 stock.
🟢I have 5-6 core areas and follow 8-12 stocks in each area. It is my organic idea gen source.
🟢events: macro data, insider buy, etc
🟢I follow like-minded(better) investors.
Signals are not equal. Ideal when multiple ones pointing to 1 stock.
THREAD: $EXO.MI
What if I told you that you could invest in a rare combination of a family-controlled compounder and special-situation machine, with stellar management, at a ~35% discount to NAV with ongoing buybacks?
Disc.: I love Exor and it's a #neversell for me.
(1/15)
What if I told you that you could invest in a rare combination of a family-controlled compounder and special-situation machine, with stellar management, at a ~35% discount to NAV with ongoing buybacks?
Disc.: I love Exor and it's a #neversell for me.
(1/15)
Exor is an Italian holding company, with origins tracing back to the end of the 19th century when Giovanni Agnelli founded Fiat. In 1927, he established Istituto Finanziario Industriale (IFI), a holding company bringing together his holdings in Fiat and other sectors.
(2/15)
(2/15)
In 2009, IFI merged with IFIL to form Exor. Family-controlled companies tend to focus on long-term value creation rather than playing the quarterly earnings game; provided that mgt cares for minority shareholders and is proactive in taking advantage of market conditions.
(3/15)
(3/15)
Goodman Group $GMG $GMG.AX is arguably one of Australia’s best managed company over the past two decades. An industrial REIT powerhouse, it is a dominant global player in warehousing and logistics that powers e-commerce. A bet against treasuries?
Let’s take a deep dive. 👇
Let’s take a deep dive. 👇
1. Investment Thesis: A stalwart, A-grade Industrial REIT, with excellent management, a long history of growth, in a cyclically growing industry, dependable dividends / future earnings. A buy and hold for the core portfolio.
2. Personal History. I first bought GMG for split-adjusted $3.40 in Feb 2011, and then sold for $6.20 in Dec 2015 – how clever I felt at the time, making 15.5% CAGR inc. divvies. Since then the market has uncovered the true value of GMG, driving up the price…
1/ Thread: $ETSY 4Q'20 Earnings Update
By now, it's widely recognized how good Etsy is, so the debate is centered around valuation. I'll comment on that, but first here are my notes.
Disclosure: $ETSY is a major core holding of mine (~20% weight).
By now, it's widely recognized how good Etsy is, so the debate is centered around valuation. I'll comment on that, but first here are my notes.
Disclosure: $ETSY is a major core holding of mine (~20% weight).
2/ GMS in 2020: $10.3 Bn growing +106%
Revenue $1.7 Bn growing +111%
"we roughly achieved our 2023 aspirations in 2020"
Etsy grew 2.5x as fast as e-commerce, and it is now 4th largest e-commerce site by monthly visit.
Revenue $1.7 Bn growing +111%
"we roughly achieved our 2023 aspirations in 2020"
Etsy grew 2.5x as fast as e-commerce, and it is now 4th largest e-commerce site by monthly visit.
3/ Etsy is not just an US story now; the pace of international growth and domestic GMS in those markets highlight not only cross-border network effects in play, but also Etsy itself has become a potent international brand.
1/ Thread: $IAC/ $ANGI Q4'20 Update
"At IAC, 2020 was a year of giving back. Not just giving back via spinoffs or distributions to the shareholders who have supported us, but giving back to the communities that have enabled us."
A very stakeholder friendly into :)
"At IAC, 2020 was a year of giving back. Not just giving back via spinoffs or distributions to the shareholders who have supported us, but giving back to the communities that have enabled us."
A very stakeholder friendly into :)
2/ $1 invested in Silver King ( $IAC predecessor) in 1995 would be $40 today, which is 16% CAGR over 25-yr i.e. 50% higher than $SPY
What an incredible track record.
What an incredible track record.
3/ $ANGI
Fixed price model generated $160 Mn in 2020. More data points in terms of how fixed price perfectly fits in.
$ANGI, however, dropped ~10% after seeing lukewarm growth in January. I expect $IAC to really hone its focus on ANGI once Vimeo spin-off.
Fixed price model generated $160 Mn in 2020. More data points in terms of how fixed price perfectly fits in.
$ANGI, however, dropped ~10% after seeing lukewarm growth in January. I expect $IAC to really hone its focus on ANGI once Vimeo spin-off.
A single prediction for the New Year. Those unfamiliar with the Federal Reserve Board’s Regulation T will hear lots about it during 2021. The rule limits the percentage of an investment in equity securities that can be borrowed with a margin loan. A wake up call is scheduled...1/
It was widely reported this week that total margin debt reached a new high of $722B. The WSJ’s 12/28 lead Business and Finance story profiled a $TSLA retail investor, a civil engineer, who had parlayed a $23k option investment in $TSLA into a $2m position. Oh boy. 2/
The gentleman is to surely and genuinely be commended for the investment. An 87x gain in a short period is extraordinary (I've never done that, nor will I). That said, a quick perusal of $TSLA twitter commentary and recommendations is terrifying. 3/
wsj.com/articles/inves…
wsj.com/articles/inves…
My Top Picks for 2021: 5 Longs and 5 Shorts:
$SEAC: 2020 saw the stock drop 67% on bad Framework deal closure numbers and limited revenue growth. With the release of their Video App and Ad Insertion Model in Q3/Q4 of this year, the dynamics will shift back to growth as they execute on the product diversification strategy
$IAC: Interactive Corp is a #NeverSell in my mind. It is continually undervalued by the market while continuing to show they can execute on their Internet Incubator model over and over. Vimeo is an incredibly unique asset and its upcoming spinoff should be value generating
I’m sharing a thread of investing/business related books I’ve read this year.
A Man For All Markets – Edward Thorp
Autobiography about a really interesting person. Amazing how he went from developing a strategy to win at blackjack to a really successful hedge fund. With a longer track record he could be considered one of the greats.
Autobiography about a really interesting person. Amazing how he went from developing a strategy to win at blackjack to a really successful hedge fund. With a longer track record he could be considered one of the greats.
The Big Short – Michael Lewis
Lewis is probably one of the best financial writers and this story is one of the most interesting of the past decades. If you liked the movie you’re going to love this one.
Lots of insights from 08 and previous years to see what actually happened.
Lewis is probably one of the best financial writers and this story is one of the most interesting of the past decades. If you liked the movie you’re going to love this one.
Lots of insights from 08 and previous years to see what actually happened.
Man, $UA was a great #NeverSell stock for the first 10 years after the IPO
"Yeah, but that would never happen to a TRULY great company like Nike!"
And those business headwinds came with a lost decade for Nike's stock price.
On a TSR basis, underperformed the S&P 500 by roughly 70pts over this period.
On a TSR basis, underperformed the S&P 500 by roughly 70pts over this period.
"Concentration builds wealth, diversification preserves it"
What if...
Concentration simply increases the range of outcomes?
=> Bigger winners & bigger losers
What if...
Concentration simply increases the range of outcomes?
=> Bigger winners & bigger losers
For some people this realization is enough to skip extreme concentration & diversify.
Others read the same message as "I will get concentrated AF but only pick the good stocks."
But can you, ex ante?
Others read the same message as "I will get concentrated AF but only pick the good stocks."
But can you, ex ante?
Makes me wonder how valuable the stories about investors who "got there" through hitting big with a concentrated portfolio really are?
Is it on average a path to outperformance?
Or or we just not hearing enough about the concentrated investors with miserable outcomes?
Is it on average a path to outperformance?
Or or we just not hearing enough about the concentrated investors with miserable outcomes?
