Tom Warner Profile picture
Nov 25, 2022 9 tweets 2 min read Read on X
This little video is truly incredible. I recommend everybody watch it several times, to let it sink in. It says so much about why Russia is losing this war. A short thread.
It shows a Ukrainian drone dropping a small grenade on a group of 11 Russian soldiers huddled sleeping in a (weakly) defensive dug-out pit, on the front line east of Bakhmut. What's amazing to watch is how sluggishly - if at all - the men react.
One man starts to get on his legs, but he merely shoves his way through other groggy men a few feet further from where the grenade hit and settles back to sleep. No one tries to change their overall situation before the next grenade hits. Three of the men don't move at all.
These men are suffering from moderate to severe hypothermia, when the body stops shivering and the mind goes into a stupor or even shuts down. They were probably laying huddled all night without proper clothing or bags. Night temperatures have been in the mid-high 30s F / 0-4 C Image
They're surely also sleep deprived. But above all, they're hopeless men in a hopeless situation. Whether convicts roped into a paramilitary force or recent conscripts to the regular army, these men have given complete control of their fates to people who treat them like garbage.
They have presumably been ordered to hold their position, and threatened with punishment or even execution if they fail. Yet they haven't been given the goods or training to stay warm.
Their situation can't be compared to the Soviet "cannon fodder" who charged at the Nazis, hopelessly for themselves but realistically making some small contribution to victory.
Today's Russian soldiers die like blind worms in a pit out of their commanders' sheer incompetence and their own failure to take responsibility for their own fates, achieving absolutely nothing.

And it's going to get a lot colder.
PS To the many people who are adding or substituting alcohol and/or lack of food to the causes: sure those are possible, even likely, but this much sluggishness or inaction among so many men has got to be hypothermia. Above all I'd rank despair.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Tom Warner

Tom Warner Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @warnerta

Aug 25, 2024
So what's really going on with the arrest of Telegram CEO Pavel Durov's arrest in France? Why is Russia so furious?

Because the legal proceedings against Durov are likely to expose and ruin a growing Kremlin infiltration of Western and Asian social media and alt-finance.
Many people have been misled into believing that Durov's long, complex relationship with the Kremlin was broken when Putin and his cronies squeezed Durov out of his first social media company, VKontakte.
theverge.com/2014/1/31/5363…
Durov then moved to the Emirates and focused on Telegram. But his $400m involuntary buyout from VKontakte wasn't big enough for his dreams, and his operations were too shady to raise funds in the US.
sec.gov/newsroom/press…
Read 12 tweets
Aug 11, 2024
If true - if Russia deliberately uses conscripts to hold the fronts against Ukraine's incursion - then for the first time conscripts are a big part of this war. So let's talk about what makes conscripts so different from mobiks and also so different from Soviet-era conscripts. 🧵
Since 2008, Russia has had a mostly professional army. That changed in fall '22 when Putin was forced to admit his initial ground forces of about 200k professional soldiers weren't enough for this war. So he ordered a "mobilizatsia" of 300k more fighters: hence, the mobiks.
Mobiks were mostly middle-aged, mostly with limited military experience. And mobiks were mostly lousy fighters, reluctantly pushed into the deadliest jobs. But after nearly two years of high attrition, the survivors are experienced fighters, as good as professional soldiers.
Read 15 tweets
Aug 7, 2024
This is a good thread everyone should read, but it misses:
- This was planned before the current crisis near Pokrovsk.
- It responds to the Kharkiv offensive, exposing its vulnerability to outflanking.
- It humiliates Putin & his army just when recruiting is becoming harder.
Rob's right that this maneuver could flop badly if Ukraine gets trapped in Russia and takes big losses. But he overestimates the combat-effectiveness of the largely conscript forces in Kursk.
Conscripts are kids drafted for 1-year service in the army, border guards or domestic troops. They're used for grunt labor, aren't prepped for combat, and aren't sent to war. Because: see above, and fears of the conscript-mother activism that helped topple the Soviet empire.
Read 5 tweets
May 14, 2023
Here's a thesis to make Russian hypernationalist veins burst.

In the coming offensive, Ukraine will both outgun and outman Russia.

One reason Ukraine has already turned the war’s tide is that after months of defensive fighting for attrition, Russia's manpower advantage is gone.
Among all the arguing over Russian casualty numbers, a couple figures in the news went little noticed.
On May 2, Gen. Milley estimated Russia's current troop strength in Ukraine at "around 200,000".
foreignaffairs.com/podcasts/how-t… Image
That's about the same size of force Russia started with. In other words, all the manpower added by mobilization, and by all other kinds of recruiting - volunteers, prisoners, forced conscription in occupied regions - has been countered by casualties, desertion and surrender.
Read 6 tweets
Dec 3, 2022
THE TWITTER FILES NOTHING BURGER :
How a dumbass far-right billionaire and a crappy former Moscow Exile reporter stumbled over themselves trying to invent a story that Twitter suppressed a big 2020 election scandal. 🧵
Tonight Elon Musk, the tech mogul who bought Twitter to welcome back neo-Nazis, and Matt Taibbi, the gonzo denouncer of "blood-sucking" bankers, published their joint project THE TWITTER FILES, which purports to expose a Democrat conspiracy to suppress a 2020 election scandal. /2
The story tries to make it look like Democrats inside and outside Twitter conspired to heavy-handedly suppress an important scandal just before the 2020 election, when the contents of Hunter Biden's laptop were leaked to the media. Only, they ended up proving the opposite. /3
Read 26 tweets
Nov 17, 2022
It was a good verdict today. But one point should be clarified. Aside from his superiors in Moscow, the person most responsible for shooting down MH17 was this guy: GRU officer Sergei Dubinsky, who also went by the call sign "Khmury" and the pseudonym Sergei Petrovsky. 1/x Image
The media has focused more on FSB officer Igor Girkin, who according to the verdict was Dubinsky's "superior" and so the highest-ranking person involved. But this conclusion stems entirely from Girkin's formal title as "defense minister" of the "Donetsk People's Republic." 2/x Image
The (Google-translated) verdict says: "At the operational level, Girkin was the highest military leader of the DPR and was therefore (finally) responsible for the deployment of military resources in and for the DPR." 2/x
courtmh17.com/nieuws/2022/ui…
Read 24 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(