This little video is truly incredible. I recommend everybody watch it several times, to let it sink in. It says so much about why Russia is losing this war. A short thread.
It shows a Ukrainian drone dropping a small grenade on a group of 11 Russian soldiers huddled sleeping in a (weakly) defensive dug-out pit, on the front line east of Bakhmut. What's amazing to watch is how sluggishly - if at all - the men react.
One man starts to get on his legs, but he merely shoves his way through other groggy men a few feet further from where the grenade hit and settles back to sleep. No one tries to change their overall situation before the next grenade hits. Three of the men don't move at all.
These men are suffering from moderate to severe hypothermia, when the body stops shivering and the mind goes into a stupor or even shuts down. They were probably laying huddled all night without proper clothing or bags. Night temperatures have been in the mid-high 30s F / 0-4 C
They're surely also sleep deprived. But above all, they're hopeless men in a hopeless situation. Whether convicts roped into a paramilitary force or recent conscripts to the regular army, these men have given complete control of their fates to people who treat them like garbage.
They have presumably been ordered to hold their position, and threatened with punishment or even execution if they fail. Yet they haven't been given the goods or training to stay warm.
Their situation can't be compared to the Soviet "cannon fodder" who charged at the Nazis, hopelessly for themselves but realistically making some small contribution to victory.
Today's Russian soldiers die like blind worms in a pit out of their commanders' sheer incompetence and their own failure to take responsibility for their own fates, achieving absolutely nothing.
And it's going to get a lot colder.
PS To the many people who are adding or substituting alcohol and/or lack of food to the causes: sure those are possible, even likely, but this much sluggishness or inaction among so many men has got to be hypothermia. Above all I'd rank despair.
So what's really going on with the arrest of Telegram CEO Pavel Durov's arrest in France? Why is Russia so furious?
Because the legal proceedings against Durov are likely to expose and ruin a growing Kremlin infiltration of Western and Asian social media and alt-finance.
Many people have been misled into believing that Durov's long, complex relationship with the Kremlin was broken when Putin and his cronies squeezed Durov out of his first social media company, VKontakte. theverge.com/2014/1/31/5363…
Durov then moved to the Emirates and focused on Telegram. But his $400m involuntary buyout from VKontakte wasn't big enough for his dreams, and his operations were too shady to raise funds in the US. sec.gov/newsroom/press…
If true - if Russia deliberately uses conscripts to hold the fronts against Ukraine's incursion - then for the first time conscripts are a big part of this war. So let's talk about what makes conscripts so different from mobiks and also so different from Soviet-era conscripts. 🧵
Since 2008, Russia has had a mostly professional army. That changed in fall '22 when Putin was forced to admit his initial ground forces of about 200k professional soldiers weren't enough for this war. So he ordered a "mobilizatsia" of 300k more fighters: hence, the mobiks.
Mobiks were mostly middle-aged, mostly with limited military experience. And mobiks were mostly lousy fighters, reluctantly pushed into the deadliest jobs. But after nearly two years of high attrition, the survivors are experienced fighters, as good as professional soldiers.
This is a good thread everyone should read, but it misses:
- This was planned before the current crisis near Pokrovsk.
- It responds to the Kharkiv offensive, exposing its vulnerability to outflanking.
- It humiliates Putin & his army just when recruiting is becoming harder.
Rob's right that this maneuver could flop badly if Ukraine gets trapped in Russia and takes big losses. But he overestimates the combat-effectiveness of the largely conscript forces in Kursk.
Conscripts are kids drafted for 1-year service in the army, border guards or domestic troops. They're used for grunt labor, aren't prepped for combat, and aren't sent to war. Because: see above, and fears of the conscript-mother activism that helped topple the Soviet empire.
Here's a thesis to make Russian hypernationalist veins burst.
In the coming offensive, Ukraine will both outgun and outman Russia.
One reason Ukraine has already turned the war’s tide is that after months of defensive fighting for attrition, Russia's manpower advantage is gone.
Among all the arguing over Russian casualty numbers, a couple figures in the news went little noticed.
On May 2, Gen. Milley estimated Russia's current troop strength in Ukraine at "around 200,000". foreignaffairs.com/podcasts/how-t…
That's about the same size of force Russia started with. In other words, all the manpower added by mobilization, and by all other kinds of recruiting - volunteers, prisoners, forced conscription in occupied regions - has been countered by casualties, desertion and surrender.
THE TWITTER FILES NOTHING BURGER :
How a dumbass far-right billionaire and a crappy former Moscow Exile reporter stumbled over themselves trying to invent a story that Twitter suppressed a big 2020 election scandal. 🧵
Tonight Elon Musk, the tech mogul who bought Twitter to welcome back neo-Nazis, and Matt Taibbi, the gonzo denouncer of "blood-sucking" bankers, published their joint project THE TWITTER FILES, which purports to expose a Democrat conspiracy to suppress a 2020 election scandal. /2
The story tries to make it look like Democrats inside and outside Twitter conspired to heavy-handedly suppress an important scandal just before the 2020 election, when the contents of Hunter Biden's laptop were leaked to the media. Only, they ended up proving the opposite. /3
It was a good verdict today. But one point should be clarified. Aside from his superiors in Moscow, the person most responsible for shooting down MH17 was this guy: GRU officer Sergei Dubinsky, who also went by the call sign "Khmury" and the pseudonym Sergei Petrovsky. 1/x
The media has focused more on FSB officer Igor Girkin, who according to the verdict was Dubinsky's "superior" and so the highest-ranking person involved. But this conclusion stems entirely from Girkin's formal title as "defense minister" of the "Donetsk People's Republic." 2/x
The (Google-translated) verdict says: "At the operational level, Girkin was the highest military leader of the DPR and was therefore (finally) responsible for the deployment of military resources in and for the DPR." 2/x courtmh17.com/nieuws/2022/ui…