Thread by @Mssr_le_Baron

As we approach the end of the year, I'd like to lay out my thoughts about trends for the coming decade and where the country and the GOP is going.

Batten down the hatches and prepare for the coming storm.

1. GOP Civil War.
This is more or less locked in at this point, and it will be a significant driver of events in the next decade, as internal party conflicts will cause the end of the GOP as a national party. Factional conflicts can no longer be papered over.

Within the GOP are roughly a few factions:
1. The Online Art Right (BAP et al)
2. The McParty (Neocon)
3. The Northeastern Establishment (Populism Inc)
4. The Family (Evangelicalism)

Alliances will be made and remade between different factions as they jockey for power within the Party, using Trump and DeSantis as warring potential figureheads. These figures will nominally lead the factions, but be unable to control the schemes of their nominal loyalists.

If Trump loses, he will run as an Independent. If DeSantis loses, enough donors will back him or a third party to generate vote splitting or staying home. Either way, the party will be unable to maintain discipline and will lose the 2024 election cycle, badly.

After this, the GOP will go into the wilderness. The collapse of the national party will leave behind independent state and local parties which will control non-trivial power but which will no longer have any national oversight. The leaders in these seats will have opportunities.

2. Regionalization and Feudalization
The Democrats will become the party of total federal control, but states will stop heeding their orders. The FEDGOV has already shown relative weakness by being unable to stop governors in their quiet rebellions or mediate interstate conflict.

Because the institutions will be torn apart by legitimacy crises and lack of internal party cohesion, power will cease to be attached to formal office. Instead, state and local leaders will amass personal power using their offices, but not *for their offices*.

Replacing institutional rule will be personal networks and patrimonialism. Elites will use their personal wealth and retinues to conduct politics, which will become about hard power (men, guns, cash) and hostile soft power (coalition building, hieratic image, and intimidation).

3. Demographics is Destiny
The changing demographics of this country will lead to new political pivot points. The new swing voter will be Hispanic, as Hispanics continue to trend rightward. The Hispanic vote will end up splitting 55-45.

The GOP already runs on Chinese-American money. As the effects of this continue trickling down, the GOP will advocate more and more for Chinese interests in order to secure donor money and the support of ballot harvesting kingmakers. Chinatowns will become GOP strongholds.

The White Working Class will become a GOP bloc vote. Because of the lumpy nature of demographics, this will lock in GOP control of certain regions while making it impossible to contest other regions. This will accelerate polarization as more and more voters move to safety.

4. Ethnogenesis
Asabiyyah is like a muscle. It strengthens as you use it, and weakens from good times. The necessity of acting according to collective group interests in order to survive in a racialized democracy (in which elections are mere headcounts) will force cooperation.

Qanon is the mythology of a developing White working class consciousness. Though the literals of Qanon may fade away, what will remain and even strength is the act of and understanding of working together in an increasingly hostile terrain.

Having to bloc vote and bloc act will condition the White working class into conceiving of itself as one group. Because of high levels of White outpreference and altruism, the symbols of White identity will be implicit rather than explicit.

The Amerikaner race is born.

The original ruling classes of America were the Puritans and Cavaliers, both of Anglo-Norman stock. After Reconstruction, they merged into one ruling ethnicity, the WASPs. This group identity lasted roughly from 1880 to the 1950s, after which rising Jews and WASPs blended.

The current mixing event started in the 1990s, and was already alarming to Jewish observers then. It is the Hapakenazi mixture event. At that time, about 40% of Jews were marrying out to East Asians. This is now in its second generation and is now developing an identity.

A clan is basically a family of families. An ethnicity is basically a clan of clans. The act of race-mixing is linking up previously disconnected networks into a very large clan of clans. Cultural syncretism will give it new traditions.

Material pressures will also force an increase in this group's asabiyyah, causing the Hapakenazi to metamorphize into the Yankee race. As more and more institutions adopt BIPOC+LBGTQ only policies, straight Hapakenazis will be denied formal elite positions.

This will cause them to use their inherited power, money, and influence to build alternative power bases. Because hard power will be important, these will take the form of hard power strongpoints like farms and factories and castles defended by militiamen.

5. Pajeet Counterelite
The median reform Jew net worth is about a million dollars. The median WASP (defined as GSS White, High Church Protestant) and East Asian net worths are about half a million. Hindu Americans have rapidly become one of America's highest earning groups.

Their net worths are skyrocketing, moving far beyond that of the common people of America. Hindu Americans, over the past decade, have now also risen to a median net worth of half a million. This now puts them past even the White genpop.

https://twitter.com/Mssr_le_Baron/status/1581673683520671744

Indians are quickly becoming a plurality in American elite institutions, and every elite internal conflict increases this percentage. This will also contribute to the forming asabiyyah of the "Yankee" race. Every time an old White elite eliminates a rival, Indians backfill.

Once a position is held by an Indian, the high average asabiyyah and ingroup preference of Indians means it is usually not given back in a meritocratic fashion, but is used to patronize one's own race or even one's specific caste or subcaste. The process only goes one way.

Very soon, growing awareness of this behavior will precipitate open conflict over America's remaining elite institutions. Here is one potential map of a 2032 America, although national elections will not matter anymore and actual control will be lumpy, changing county to county.

6. CLIMAX: THE BATTLE OF STAMFORD BRIDGE

Neutral, meritocratic selection of elites is a product of Anglo values and Anglo society. Elite fracture will culminate in a battle over the fate of the new US, and the result will be some form of ethnic elite system with the winners subjugating the losers.