Thread by @jeffgiesea

I want @elonmusk to succeed, but I believe his erratic, monarchic approach to Trust & Safety issues going to backfire. A quick 🧵

I’ll admit, it is satisfying to watch Twitter’s “regime change” for those of us acquainted with the company’s longstanding political bias. But he needs to move Twitter to sanity for his deal to succeed, not from one form of crazy to another.

This means taking a more professional, conciliatory approach. And yes, making compromises. These compromises might seem weak in the short term but will advance an equilibrium of free speech, political neutrality, positive user experience, and profitability in the long run.

Specifically, he needs to hand off these issues to a Yoel Roth-type figure and quickly build a new team & process for Trust & Safety with an emphasis on foreign influence in particular. His current approach of polling, off-the-cuff decisions, and mass amnesty is foolhardy.

Here is what will happen if he doesn’t take a professional approach.

Note: I am not saying I want these things to happen. This is the way I predict the establishment swarm will react to his continued approach and how it will impact the business (see @johnrobb’s work)

First, more advertisers will drop Twitter. Current brand advertisers will move from a “wait and see mode” to a hard no. Ad agencies will blackball the company. This will cripple Twitter ad revenue potential, which has huge upside potential.

Second, app stores will face pressure drop or suppress Twitter, which will make it more difficult for new users to discover and sign up. This will impact Twitter’s distribution and overall growth potential.

Third, payment processors will come under pressure to drop Twitter. (Again, I don’t want this or think this is fair, it’s just reality). This will cripple efforts to drive recurring subscription revenue, which is where Musk sees the most possibility for value creation.

Fourth, the technical infrastructure companies Twitter relies on will come under pressure to drop the company (as they have for other platforms like Gab as I understand it). These issues can be overcome, but it’s just another headache.

Fifth, politicians and political agitators will come after Twitter in new ways. I would expect to see a lot of (predatory) lawfare directed at the company, for example. They’ll come up with endless red tape issues and headaches to make things more difficult.

Many people say “Twitter is a private company, it can do what it wants.” This is true in theory but not the way the world works. Twitter is a global public square. It impacts politics in many countries. It is a geopolitical battle space. It is too important to be left alone.

So @elonmusk faces a decision: continue with his current approach, challenge the system, and face pain and predation. Or take a more conciliatory and professional approach that involves compromises but that may advance his goals more longer term. I advocate the latter.

It will be an uphill battle either way, but the conciliatory approach will work better in my view. Better to be “wholesale sane, retail mad” rather than “wholesale mad, retail sane.”

Ok back to dad-ing at the playground. I hope you all had a wonderful #Thanksgiving