1/ The economic collapse of Poland is going to be one for the ages. The numbers are wild. 🧵
2/ The plan is to increase defence spending by 2.6% of GDP. With $17bn of new contracts with the US and South Korea, they’ve already hit 2.5% of GDP. ALL of that money flows abroad!
3/ Poland’s current account has collapsed into deficit this year. In the last two quarters it averaged 4% of GDP. That large a deficit is difficult enough to fund for a rich country like Britain or even the United States.
4/ Now add on the 2.5% of GDP being spent on weapons and we get to a 6.5% of GDP current account deficit. In a relatively poor Central European country with its own currency! 🚨
5/ But wait, there’s more! Poland’s inflation is close to 20%. 20%! They’re in the same territory as Argentina and Turkey were prior to both entering an inflation-depreciation doom loop.
6/ The zloty has declined 12% this year against USD. That’s nothing in compared to what’s coming. If you think a relatively poor country with an inflation rate over 10% higher than the US and a current account deficit of 6.5% of GDP can survive for long I’ve got a bridge to sell.
7/ Surely then the Polish central bank are raising rates to defend the currency? Nope. Real interest rates in Poland is -11%. -11%!!!
8/ This isn’t simple mismanagement. This is the sort of policy making you see in basket-case economies. If Poland collapses into actual hyperinflation will it remain an EU member state? Not clear.
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1/ Everything is NOT going according to plan in Milei’s Argentina. The trade deficit is reopening, the peso is once more starting to collapse and is being propped up with an IMF loan. This was obviously going to happen to anyone familiar with the Argentinean economy. 🇦🇷🧵
2/ When Milei was first elected he promised to dollarise the Argentinean economy. Like most of his schemes this was unrealistic and so it never happened.
3/ So instead he massively devalued the peso and said allowing a “free market” in the currency would solve Argentina’s problems.
1/ The @Harvard foreign student ban is the clearest indication that America is in the midst of a serious revolution right now - easily comparable to the end of USSR. But our preconceptions - political and intellectual - prevent us from seeing this reality. 🧵
2/ Let’s start with @Harvard. It is the keystone on the entire US elite class. The American system is a “credential aristocracy”. Harvard is the top of the credentialising pyramid. Without Harvard the rest of the system - populated with Harvard grads - starts to fail.
3/ This system encompasses the Global Liberal Empire the US sustains. Harvard graduates - or those trained at the feet of Harvard graduates - are the American liberal vassals that are placed in positions of power globally.
1/ 🇨🇦🍁What we see in Canada is the collapse of global liberalism cranking into high gear. The collapse is now leading to the proliferation of ethnic tensions that are tearing the Anglo-liberal world to pieces.🧵
2/ For many years, the British made extensive efforts to maintain the Commonwealth identity of Canada. It was one of the final bastions of British soft power after Suez.
3/ In Quebec the French identity was more deeply ingrained and didn’t have to be “forced” because of the language. Although in recent times this identify has descended into a LARP.
1/ You may have seen press coverage of big anti-government rallies in Hungary where it is claimed that the opposition is now ahead in the polls. When you look into the polls, however, there is something very strange going on. Strong evidence of manipulation. 🧵
2/ The main source that you see cited for the status of polling around the Hungarian 2026 election is Wikipedia. Everyone is snobby about Wiki, but the reality is that it's a go-to for journalists and researchers.
3/ The Wiki poll shows the opposition pulling ahead of the ruling party in Hungary around the start of 2025. Yet when you dig into the numbers there are some serious anomalies that suggest manipulation.
1/ Short thread on why $NVDA is way overvalued and why the stock looks set to fall hard these next few weeks - including some very rough estimates that show a 75% price decline. 📉🧵
2/ $NVDA has been soaring on rapidly growing data centre revenue. Companies are buying up GPUs to gear up for the AI revolution.
3/ Hard to overstate how reliant $NVDA is on these revenues. In Q3 2024 they made around 83% of total revenues!
1/ What is actually happening in Argentina? Has Milei fixed the country? Or do the deep structural problems remain - and are they getting worse? 🇦🇷🧵
2/ The main positive headline is that the Milei government’s cuts have created a government surplus. They have, but this is a distraction as the government deficit was never causing the inflation.
3/ In 2023 the deficit was less than 3% of GDP which is quite modest. For context, Argentina’s neighbour Brazil had a deficit of nearly 9% in 2023 and inflation is below 5%. Milei’s obsession with the deficit is not serious economic analysis.