Wagner commands their soldiers from the top down very strictly. They are told what to do on a moment to moment basis. Lay down, fan out, move up to that tree, fire on this location, etc. They are controlled by drones who fly above them. It is kinda like a real time strategy game.
If you don’t follow the command you’re given, they kill you. The commands are very simple because they don’t trust you. You can only withdraw if you are commanded to do so.
The HQ has feeds from many different drones, and can see what is going on in many places at once, and they order all of the groups to move and behave. The purpose is to probe for weaknesses and then put as many resources at that weak point as possible as quickly as possible.
This is why casualties are irrelevant. The people doing the fighting have basically zero value. They do what they are told or they die and get replaced.
This is how Wagner turns people with absolutely no military training, experience, skill, or ability into an offensive threat. It is why I say the drone is their primary weapon. Wagner will continue as long as they have three things:
1: cannon fodder
2: drones
3: ammo
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
It is true, Russia makes small gains south of Bakhmut. Several villages are contested (I haven’t updated my map yet).
It is false, Russia does not succeed in Marinka. They are just lying, nothing really more to say about that.
Regarding Bakhmut, the ground Russia has taken, much of it they have entered previously before being driven back out. Andriivka, for example. They are conducting suicide attacks (I point you to the video of the guy committing suicide in the attack, they take this literally).
Ukraine also suffers high casualties south of Bakhmut. By this, I mean all towns south of Opytne. In Opytne, Russia tries to attack but cannot. Maybe they have given up? Now they are trying to go around Opytne to reach the highway to the west to cut off reinforcements.
I got no news about Bakhmut from any of my contacts today, which likely means the situation is pretty shit. Last I heard, Russia was pretty desperately trying to break through kurdyumivka, but they had little to no progress. Russians had some progress toward Klishchiivka.
But the advance toward Klishchiivka was described to me as “temporary”. Russia is trying to break into Opytne, but beyond a part of the town being a gray area they cannot get a foothold. I heard the attacks are getting weaker and more desperate.
Last I heard, this crossroad is in Ukrainian control.
Plan A: Attack Bakhmut. Status: Failed
Plan B: Go around Bakhmut. Status: Failed
Plan C: Attack Bakhmut. Status: Failed
Plan D: Go around Bakhmut. Status: Failed
Plan E: Attack Bakhmut. Status: Failed
Plan F: Go around Bakhmut. Status: Failed
Plan G: Attack Bakhmut. Status: Failed
Plan H: Go around Bakhmut. Status: Failed
Plan I: Attack Bakhmut. Status: Failed
Plan J: Go around Bakhmut. Status: Failed
Plan K: Attack Bakhmut. Status: Failed
Plan L: Go around Bakhmut. Status: Failed
Plan M: Attack Bakhmut. Status: Failed
Plan N: Go around Bakhmut. Status: Failed
Plan O: Attack Bakhmut. Status: Failed
Plan P: Go around Bakhmut. Status: Failed
Plan Q: Attack Bakhmut. Status: Failed
Plan R: Go around Bakhmut. Status: Failed
I will be surprised if Ukraine launches a major offensive on the southern front any time soon. I can’t understand why they would. To me, it makes much more sense to attack the north and try to take back Luhansk Oblast. Attacking east from Spirne toward Lysychansk and Rubizhne.
Even attacking east from Bakhmut would make sense to me. I just don’t see Ukraine moving south. And, at the same time, it would be unconscionably stupid for Russia to attack north toward Velyka Novosilka, Hulyaipole, Orikhiv, or Zaporizhzhia.
Russia attacking north on this front would be an insane military blunder that I think would rapidly bring an end to the war.