“America needs to realize that public opinion is shifting in many EU countries.” - an EU official said
I don’t know about Western Europe but at least in NCEE, if public opinion is shifting, then even more firmly to support Ukraine politico.eu/article/vladim…
“Vladimir Putin is beginning to fracture the West.”
No. The West is fracturing itself, as it always does.
Europeans are not really in a position to complain. The US warned us about relying on Russian energy. We are also dependent on US-provided security.
If left to our own devices, we also wouldn’t be able (or willing ??) to support Ukraine with what it needs. The US support is worth twice the sum that WHOLE EUROPE has managed to muster up so far.
The US should indeed coordinate more closely with European partners on the inflation reduction act and other domestic policies likely to impact Europe big time, and it would be nice if the LNG prices weren’t so high. A transatlantic trade war is the very last thing we need
“Officials on both sides of the Atlantic recognize the risks that the increasingly toxic atmosphere will have for the Western alliance. The bickering is exactly what Putin would wish for, EU and U.S. diplomats agreed.”
Here we go.
A reminder on who profits from what:
“In most cases […] the difference between the export and import prices doesn't go to U.S. LNG exporters, but to companies reselling the gas within the EU. The largest European holder of long-term U.S. gas contracts is France's TotalEnergies”
Yeah many European countries are now buying off the shelf from the US. Because the US has something on the shelves.
(Joint) European defence industry projects take ages and we don’t have time now. It’s too bad but it is what it is. Of course it would be nice if it changed.
P.S. I really think they should keep public opinion out of it - as mentioned idk about public opinion in France, Italy, or elsewhere.
But e.g. in Germany, public opinion has remained firmly behind Ukraine and it’s more clear in Germany now than ever before what’s at stake.
To conclude: yes, a HS-EU trade war would be very bad. Must be avoided.
But leave support for Ukraine out of it. I would go as far as to say that a majority of Europeans support Ukraine and are willing to bear some personal discomfort if need be.
*US hello Elon the edit button would be actually a useful change you could implement !
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🇫🇮🇸🇪 membership application came just at the right time: without the two new Allies, NATO would be hard pressed to deliver on the promise to “defend every inch of Allied territory at all times” in the Nordic-Baltic region. Now, we are looking at a unified strategic sphere.
While it is important to address e.g. the Southern flank Allies’ concerns about a “Nordic(-Baltic) club” within the Alliance, a certain degree of regionalisation will likely be even unavoidable, when making defence plans for the Baltic Sea and Arctic.
Last week’s missile case in Poland increased the urgency to get the Finnish and Swedish NATO membership fully ratified asap. Yesterday, V4 partners put pressure on Orbán to speed up the procedure in Hungary.
About the Turkish ratification:
It’s not simply a US call to “make 🇹🇷 ratify” as some seem to think. While the strong US backing for 🇫🇮🇸🇪 membership is crucial and 🇺🇸 has put its diplomatic weight behind it, it’s nevertheless not that straightforward. Contrary to popular belief, NATO is not just a US tool.
Some reminders:
Opposition from the US and other Allies did not stop Turkey from buying Russian S-400 missile systems.
And in Syria, the US and Turkey are basically on opposite sides.
“In Finland and Sweden, the militaries know a thing or two about extreme cold weather combat, and how to battle the elements. And with an eye on the weather, the two Nordic nations have announced their biggest packages of military aid for Ukraine to date.” euronews.com/2022/11/23/fin…
“The tenth - and latest - Finnish defence package is valued at €55.6 million, bringing the combined value of all defence material earmarked for Ukraine to €160.4m since the start of the war.”
“While some countries have been more open about what weapons systems they've given to Ukraine, the Finns see no need to flag to the Russians what they're supplying.
"It is the Finnish way to keep quiet," said [DefMin] Kaikkonen.”
Can we please agree to stop talking about “NATO expansion”. It’s not NATO that is somehow actively expanding on its own initiative. It’s countries applying for membership.
Enlargement yes, but not expansion.
P.S. I just find it interesting how in the context of the EU, it’s always about “enlargement”. “EU expansion” even sounds a bit ridiculous.
But in the context of NATO, “expansion” is quite commonly used (because NATO can be imagined to expand kind of aggressively ? Idk)
Had the pleasure to visit 🇫🇷 FS Chevalier Paul today while it stayed at the port of Helsinki before attending the multinational exercise “Freezing winds 22” (a very accurate name) with 8 participating nations, the main exercise of @Navyfi this year.
What impressed me - apart from the anti-air and anti-submarine capabilities - was what a crew member said:
The NATO membership of Finland and Sweden only makes procedures simpler. But the French commitment to its EU partners’ security was already strong before.
While the ship stayed close to Kaliningrad in the southern Baltic Sea on its way up north, Russian planes flew over it very close to check it out. It’s an important deterrence signal that NATO partners are actively participating in exercises and showing presence in the Baltic Sea
Some thoughts about Milley doubling down on negotiations: I get it that from a military logic it’s correct - you want to negotiate when you’re in a stronger position. But it also implies that some kind of territorial compromise should be acceptable for 🇺🇦
What it ignores is the political element of Russia hardly negotiating in good faith at this point. It would be very convenient for Russia to use the winter for “negotiating”, while at the same time preparing for the spring, then coming at Ukraine with all they’ve got again.
Of course it’s understandable to want to avoid a long war. But negotiating now is most likely not the way to do it and would yield the opposite result: enabling Russia to get its act together and *continue* the war.