Thread by @MarkHertling

Many suggesting how Ukraine should "keep up the momentum" against the Russians in the NE (Donbas) while continuing to Melitopol (further east from Kherson Oblast).

While certainly desirable, both those efforts will be tough.

Here's why. A brief 🧵 1/18

1st, let's discuss the NE, Donbas.

Since 2014, trench warfare in the Donbas has been prevalent.

The line between the falsely described "people's republics" of Donetsk & Luhansk has become a no-man's land, and Russia's attempt at a "frozen conflict." 2/
washingtonpost.com/world/interact…

Small UKR villages were shelled & extensively mined. Prior to 9/24 there weren't many territorial gains by either side.

Expanding this area was an early (& failed) RU operational objective.

A July @TheStudyofWar map/article is a terrific primer
understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r… 3/

Though fighting has been extensive these last few months, & UA has made some major gains, both sides are back to previous LOC (line of contact): the trench line.

4/

The history of "trench warfare" goes back 1000s of years, with the first reported "Battle of the Trench" at Medina.

But almost every war has seen these kinds of trench lines, in greater or lesser distances. 5/

There were trench battles (Petersburg & Vicksburg) during the Civil War, but the most famous was the Western Front of WWI.

Most (not all) trench fights have been a result of technology advancing faster than mobility.

Soldiers' fear of machine guns, accurate cannons, etc. 6/

I've been to WWI battlefields on "staff rides" (Somme, Verdun, Flanders). At all there are still trenches, underground HQs, unexploded shells in farmers' fields.

The allies introduced tanks at at Passchendaele in 1916, then at Ypres in 1917...they weren't much help. 7/

The British even dug a tunnel for two years to get under the German trench lines at Messines to explode 19 mines, killing 10,000 Germans in what would become the largest explosion until the atom bomb 30 years later. 8/

historyireland.com/biggest-explos…

In effect, a "trench" is really an extended defensive positions, with mines, dug in troops, preplanned artillery and direct fire weapons, open space that doesn't offer cover. It's challenging to attack.

A force can chose to go around, over, under, or through a dug in enemy. 9/

At our US Army training centers, we train Combined Arms breach ops.

In effect, using everything you have - intelligence, suppression, tanks, precision artillery, infantry, engineers & more.

Here's a film that shows how tough it is & what it requires.10/

In years commanding & training units, my view is the combined arms breach is the toughest mission imaginable.

It requires extensive training, lots of practice, a combination of resources that only advanced armies have, and adaptive & smart leaders. 11/
benning.army.mil/armor/earmor/c…

To regain the Donbas, Ukraine's Army will face a tough fight.

They will need precision artillery, great leadership, & ever-increasing combined arms capability.

In addition to being a tough fight, it will also take time to attrit the RU force.

They'll succeed, but not fast. 12/

Let's turn to the SE, Kherson Oblast.

This fight will require a different approach, using conventional forces (with good intel, solid maneuver and firepower, precision targeting) as well as help from territorials & resistance,

And, it will require crossing the Dnipro! 13/

Different from attacking a dug-in defending enemy in the NE, this fight will require more maneuver, precision strikes, special operations...and river crossing ability!

Those who are saying "UA must continue to roll east" haven't looked at this map. 14/

And beyond looking at this map, one must understand the width of the Dnipro, and that most of the E-W bridges have been destroyed.

These 2 pictures, taken in peacetime near Kherson city, give an idea of how challenging a river crossing will be with massive amounts of troops. 15/

During WWII, a huge ally concern was how friendly forces would get across the Rhine to continue their atk. German forces had blown bridges behind them to prevent allies from advancing.

GEN Patton's forces were lucky to capture 1 bridge - at Remagen.

It made the difference. 16/

If attacking a trench line with a breach is the hardest mission, an opposed river crossing and the continuation of an assault is a close second.

This is what a large part of the UA will have to do to continue the attack east, toward Melitopol, and beyond. 17/

UA has been masterful thus far in attacking & defeating RU forces that have occupied their sovereign land.

As I said last week, phase IV of this fight will be tough...I've outlined the reasons why.

I remain convinced Ukraine will succeed, w/ NATO & US support. 18/18