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Michael Lin, MD PhD 🧬

@michaelzlin

Nov 30

In California, SARSCoV2 wastewater levels now back to first wave peaks, and approaching BA1 and BA5 peaks.

With now 3 fall-winter waves, we can now get a broad historical overview of how infection fatality rates (IFRs) have changed over time

We can't use COVID19 case #'s any more, as most cases now unreported, but we have wastewater. Bay Area records include the late 2020 unvaxxed wave. For other regions I can only find records from early 2022, which confirm we're now back at >50% of BA5 peak
cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/D…

To evaluate IFR, we need to remember deaths now are from cases 3-4 weeks ago on average. So we want to correspond today's fatalities to wastewater viral levels 4 weeks ago, 11/1. From there we find dates in earlier waves with similar levels.

SJ has the best data so we use SJ

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Michael Lin, MD PhD 🧬

@michaelzlin

Nov 25

After the Lion Air flight 610 and Ethiopian flight 302 737 MAX crashes in 2019, investigations revealed poorly written software allowed a single erroneous or absent angle-of-attack reading (fairly common occurrence) to command maximal downward pitch.

During 737 training, pilots are taught 2 ways to keep the airplane level during such "runaway trim" events (one motorized and one manual method). In the crash cases, pilots did use the motorized method to counteract the pitch down, but then stopped doing it and then crashed.

Boeing claimed at first that the proximate cause was pilot error, but clearly there was a more upstream cause in the form of bad software, whose new "auto-crash" features were actually hidden from the pilots and not completely reported to the FDA.

Read 15 tweets

Michael Lin, MD PhD 🧬

@michaelzlin

Nov 18

Have to say not impressed by Mastodon's signup process. Originally signed up via mobile app, now thinking of changing server, but server list at joinmastodon.org/servers completely different than the list I remember from mobile app, and doesn't include major ones on how-to sites

For example, no "science" category, closest is tech, but these are completely different than the list at fediscience.org (top hit when googling mastodon science).

The 60 servers on the joinmastodon website include neither the ones listed on fediscience.org, nor mstdn.social which I hear is a biggie from one of the how-to-mastodon sites

Also mobile app showed # users per server but website doesn't AFAICT

Read 8 tweets

Michael Lin, MD PhD 🧬

@michaelzlin

Nov 13

New study shows Wuhan infection protects 2x better against later SARS-CoV-2 infection and 4x better against death than 2x original RNA vax.

Note long follow-up period 1/2021 to 5/2022 means most cases are strain-mismatched to vax, explaining why this differs from prior studies

Here's the original paper.

Interestingly the authors in the abstract don't even discuss the effects of strain mismatch and waning vax-induced immunity on the worse long-term protection vs infection

They just end with what sounds like a platitude
thelancet.com/journals/lanmi…

Wouldn't be surprised if this gets misinterpreted as vax can't work as well or never worked as well, when originally they did protect better than prior infection, back when there was only 1 strain and vax were 3mo fresh.

What the paper points out is two challenges of vaccines:

Read 18 tweets

Michael Lin, MD PhD 🧬

@michaelzlin

Nov 12

Eye-opening that PRC can't find enough fluent Cantonese speakers to work as censors (although might be fixed soon).

This is more proof that the PRC hasn't been a govt representative of the people, not that we needed it.

cnn.com/2022/11/11/asi…

But many in the US probably didn't realize that Sinic people (Chinese ethnicities) include many who prefer languages different from the official Mandarin Chinese. Some like Cantonese and Minnanese/Hokkienese/Taiwanese are ~2000y diverged and mutually unintelligible with Mandarin

Most words are the same when written, but idiomatic usage and some vocabulary is unique to some Sinic languages, so as this story indicates you can write in a manner unintelligible to Mandarin-only speakers if you tried

Read 4 tweets

Michael Lin, MD PhD 🧬

@michaelzlin

Nov 11

Haven't been a fan of how Nature news has chosen to cover SARSCOV2 origins.

So many assumptions built into the word choice here: that SARS-CoV-2 isn't a straight bat virus, that "many agree" there's an intermediate.

I guess "many contend" would too accurately admit contention

Link to article nature.com/articles/d4158…

Lousy headline too. Until all bat, cell, and media samples in WIV have been tested with SARSCOV2 primers, and scientists allowed to collect specimens from caves without PRC restrictions on publication, can't say chances are nil.

Why would virologists want to say that BTW?

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