Good evening. Day 5 after the latest Russian attack on Kyiv. Day 277 of the war. I am president of the Kyiv School of Economics, a former minister of economy of Ukraine, and a professor of economics at the University of Pittsburgh. I left the US for Kyiv 4 days before the war 1/
and stayed there, with some short trips outside of Ukraine for fundraising. Officially, I am on sabbatical leave from Pittsburgh this year. I guess not many people have field sabbaticals, here the field is a war. I left the US because I must lead the Kyiv School of 2/
Economics through the war. I hold a green card and can leave Ukraine at any moment. But I do not want to and will not do it. Now, back to my day. It was busy and I am tired. Shopping, looking and assembling things. In short, preparing for another likely Russian attack tomorrow 3/
We got our super warm winter hiking clothing out. Many people suggested that we can sleep in a tent in our bedroom. So we dug out sleeping bags and went to buy a tent. 4/
The shops were open and it was Black Friday. Everything on sale. But when we were about to pay, the electricity went off. The shop had a battery and continued to run. They used Xmas lights to save electricity instead of their regular ones. It was very cozy. Here is a pic. 5/
Many people suggested that when the electricity and heating go out, we use candles or gas / kerosine heaters to warm the apartment. We decided against it. First, it is not too safe for novices. Second, none are on the market or we could find. So, we drove to 6/
another store to get at least some wood and coal. The plan is to use an simple and small firewood oven that we can set up on our balcony if all else fails. How do you drive when there is no lights in the city, that is, no traffic lights? Traffic police come out! My respect! 7/
We wanted to try the firewood idea, just to practice, when we get home. But we got exhausted bringing all this stuff to the 8th floor. So, we will try it another time. Will post the picture. Yet, my wife wanted some tea anyway. And also she wanted to get hot water 8/
for the morning. She asked me to start the generator so she can use electric tea pot. I did and discovered another problem. The snow on the balcony has melted. And the generator was sliding towards the windows because of vibration. I need a way to fix it in place, but that’s 9/
for tomorrow. Anyway, the water is boiled and stored in thermoses. We have two, one liter each. Perhaps, we should get more. We can probably order them delivered. Here is a pic of a delivery man on a bike 90 mins before the curfew. 10/
That’s a private service. Public services work too. Here is a tractor shoveling snow on a sidewalk. All pictures taken when we were driving back from a mall. 11/ twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
The mall looked normal too except for occasionally blinking light, shortage of products in electrical and heating departments, and occasional assignments by managers to their staff to remember to start generators for the night. There was even a sushi restaurant. A good one. 12/
In the morning, we checked out a center of “nezlamnost”. These are shelters when people can get warm, get some tea, access internet, and power their devices. Here is a Starlinks set up for you :). Very cute! 13/
The center is run by a charity organization “solomenski cats”. Solomenski is the place. Here is their logo. We proposed to them to equip 10 more centers like that and KSE Foundation will match / provide 50% of funding. The rest they should raise themselves 14/
The centers are set up officially at the request / initiative of the president and mayors. There is some funding. For basics. They are set up in hospitals and schools. The problem is that often money is not enough. You should have organizational and procurement capability 15/
This is where we will try to help. Finally, I posted separately about our students spending the last night at the university building (we have one, no dorm). Here are some pics. 16/ twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
We are ready for another attack. Russians often hit on Monday. That’s tomorrow. Every time damages get worse. No water and heat for days. But people are adapting. You can donate to KSE here. Thank you so much for your support!!!
Browder: How does Putin afford to keep fighting after four years? Oil and oil products. That is where the money comes from.
If we want to stop the invasion, we take away his money — and that means stopping Russia’s oil sales. 1/
Browder: Pausing sanctions does not create new jet fuel. Russia can still sell under sanctions — it just gets a lower price.
Removing pressure only redistributes profit back to Moscow. It does not solve shortages; it gives Putin more money. 2/
Browder: Zelenskyy is watching the West talk about sanctions, do them halfway, or delay them.
So Ukraine is sending drones into Russia and blowing up oil refineries — imposing its own oil sanctions because Western policy is fickle and half-hearted. 3/
Kellogg: Trump has been extremely measured with Iran, but negotiations should be broken off.
Seize Kharg Island. It controls 90% of Iran’s economy, puts the whole country at risk, especially the leadership, and creates leverage fast. 1/
Kellogg: Take the command-and-control hub for the Strait, put Marines there, line up Avenger-class minesweepers, and escort ships out on the Omani side.
Clear the Strait, take control of the situation, and stop trusting the IRGC. 2/
Kellogg: You do not have to invade Iran.
Take a couple of strategic choke points, take away the regime’s economy, strangle it, and build up resistance from inside. The government starts to fall when its survival is at stake. 3/
Keane: Iran’s regime does not care about the suffering of its people.
It thinks it can run out the clock, increase political and economic pressure on Trump, and use any negotiated deal to finance the regime’s recovery. 1/
Keane: Trump has shown huge patience since the April 8 ceasefire, but a deal does not seem possible.
The U.S. is on the cusp of returning to combat operations with Israel — full throttle, all out, no half measures. 2/
Keane: The next target list should include remaining weapons, nuclear remnants, the organizations sustaining the regime, and Iran’s revenue sources.
The goal is not just military pressure, but forcing economic collapse. 3/
It wants to control people, complicate Ukrainian intelligence work, and prepare society for serious decisions that may be unpopular or hard to explain. That is why it cuts off alternative information. 1/
Budanov: Russia is replacing reality. In Moscow, there is a whole “museum of Ukrainian Nazism.”
It has nothing to do with reality, but it is built logically and professionally. A person who sees it can believe it — that is the danger. 2/
Budanov: Civil resistance under occupation must continue.
Every Ukrainian flag, every sign, every act is a connection with identity, state, history, culture and tradition. It is risky, but without it there will be full colonization. 3/
Budanov: Russia’s goals keep moving lower under pressure from reality. First it was “Kyiv in three days.”
After almost four years, it became “Donbas at any cost.” Now the new goal is Ukraine outside military alliances and without nuclear status. 1/
Budanov: Russia’s leadership lives in numbers, charts, economic and geopolitical forecasts — and those forecasts look bad for them.
There is no real optimism at the top. That is why their public narratives keep changing. 2/
Budanov: Russian society still lives by television, but a dangerous thought is already appearing: maybe Russia will still do something, but clearly something is going wrong.
That narrative exists, it threatens the regime, and they know it. 3X
Putin came to Beijing weaker than at his last visit. Moscow took 500+ drones three days earlier. Russia lost net territory last month for the first time since Aug 2024.
With Middle East crude squeezed, Xi now extracts energy on Beijing's terms — CNN. 1/
Xi rolled out the red carpet anyway. Honor guard, gun salute, children with flags. The same welcome Trump received days earlier.
The substance diverged. Trump left without a joint statement. Putin signed one. 2/
Putin and Xi reiterated their "no limits" partnership and a "multipolar world." This is Putin's 25th visit to China in 25 years; they have met more than 40 times.
Putin used a Chinese idiom on his bond with Xi: "One day apart feels like three autumns." 3/