Good evening. Day 5 after the latest Russian attack on Kyiv. Day 277 of the war. I am president of the Kyiv School of Economics, a former minister of economy of Ukraine, and a professor of economics at the University of Pittsburgh. I left the US for Kyiv 4 days before the war 1/
and stayed there, with some short trips outside of Ukraine for fundraising. Officially, I am on sabbatical leave from Pittsburgh this year. I guess not many people have field sabbaticals, here the field is a war. I left the US because I must lead the Kyiv School of 2/
Economics through the war. I hold a green card and can leave Ukraine at any moment. But I do not want to and will not do it. Now, back to my day. It was busy and I am tired. Shopping, looking and assembling things. In short, preparing for another likely Russian attack tomorrow 3/
We got our super warm winter hiking clothing out. Many people suggested that we can sleep in a tent in our bedroom. So we dug out sleeping bags and went to buy a tent. 4/
The shops were open and it was Black Friday. Everything on sale. But when we were about to pay, the electricity went off. The shop had a battery and continued to run. They used Xmas lights to save electricity instead of their regular ones. It was very cozy. Here is a pic. 5/
Many people suggested that when the electricity and heating go out, we use candles or gas / kerosine heaters to warm the apartment. We decided against it. First, it is not too safe for novices. Second, none are on the market or we could find. So, we drove to 6/
another store to get at least some wood and coal. The plan is to use an simple and small firewood oven that we can set up on our balcony if all else fails. How do you drive when there is no lights in the city, that is, no traffic lights? Traffic police come out! My respect! 7/
We wanted to try the firewood idea, just to practice, when we get home. But we got exhausted bringing all this stuff to the 8th floor. So, we will try it another time. Will post the picture. Yet, my wife wanted some tea anyway. And also she wanted to get hot water 8/
for the morning. She asked me to start the generator so she can use electric tea pot. I did and discovered another problem. The snow on the balcony has melted. And the generator was sliding towards the windows because of vibration. I need a way to fix it in place, but that’s 9/
for tomorrow. Anyway, the water is boiled and stored in thermoses. We have two, one liter each. Perhaps, we should get more. We can probably order them delivered. Here is a pic of a delivery man on a bike 90 mins before the curfew. 10/
That’s a private service. Public services work too. Here is a tractor shoveling snow on a sidewalk. All pictures taken when we were driving back from a mall. 11/ twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
The mall looked normal too except for occasionally blinking light, shortage of products in electrical and heating departments, and occasional assignments by managers to their staff to remember to start generators for the night. There was even a sushi restaurant. A good one. 12/
In the morning, we checked out a center of “nezlamnost”. These are shelters when people can get warm, get some tea, access internet, and power their devices. Here is a Starlinks set up for you :). Very cute! 13/
The center is run by a charity organization “solomenski cats”. Solomenski is the place. Here is their logo. We proposed to them to equip 10 more centers like that and KSE Foundation will match / provide 50% of funding. The rest they should raise themselves 14/
The centers are set up officially at the request / initiative of the president and mayors. There is some funding. For basics. They are set up in hospitals and schools. The problem is that often money is not enough. You should have organizational and procurement capability 15/
This is where we will try to help. Finally, I posted separately about our students spending the last night at the university building (we have one, no dorm). Here are some pics. 16/ twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
We are ready for another attack. Russians often hit on Monday. That’s tomorrow. Every time damages get worse. No water and heat for days. But people are adapting. You can donate to KSE here. Thank you so much for your support!!!
Putin let Assad fall in 2024. He will not let Iran fall.
Assad was a client whose survival depended on outside force. Iran generates costs for America without requiring Russian exposure. From the Kremlin's perspective, it is irreplaceable — Nicole Grajewski, NYT. 1/
The US war in Iran handed Moscow three things at once: higher oil prices, suspended sanctions on Russian crude, and fractured Western attention.
Peskov this week: "The Americans have a lot of other things to deal with, if you know what I mean." 2/
Iran held on for weeks, generating enormous costs to the global economy. Even if ceasefire holds, Iran is battered, poorer, more isolated.
If fighting resumes, the cumulative weight of strikes, sanctions, and internal unrest could tip Iran toward implosion. 3/
Russia sent 3 submarines to map and probe Britain's undersea cables and pipelines.
Two were secret Gugi seabed-warfare vessels, built to sabotage infrastructure that carries the country's data, gas, and electricity — Tom Sharpe, The Telegraph. 1/
One Akula-class nuclear attack boat. Two specialist subs from Gugi — Russia's classified Main Directorate for Deep-Sea Research, separate from the regular navy.
They operated north of the UK for over a month. Mission: map critical underwater infrastructure for potential sabotage. 2/
Oct 2023: Balticconnector pipeline between Finland and Estonia — cut, supplies down for weeks. Nov 2024: two Baltic telecom cables severed. Christmas 2024: Estlink-2 power cable and 4 data lines offline.
Russia probes European seabed infrastructure year after year. 3/
Bolton: JD Vance doesn't want to come back from this meeting [Iran negotiations] as the Neville Chamberlain of this conflict.
The ceasefire with Iran was a mistake. It gives the Iranians a breathing space. It’s not clear to me there's any prospect for progress. 1/
Bolton: I think given Trump's panic that we're very likely at the end of it, although people won't want to admit that. He just wants to be able to declare victory, which he's tried to do several times already erroneously. He'll find another way to declare victory and move on. 2/
Bolton: Iran was moving ahead with the nuclear program as fast as they could anyway. If regime change were really something Trump had wanted, he could have had an orderly process after the 12-day war. There's no evidence that happened. 3X
Europe’s defense is shifting from Brussels to a Germany-Poland core, with France and the UK supplying nuclear and expeditionary support.
As the US signals Europe must carry primary responsibility by 2027, while Russia could be ready to attack NATO within 5 years, FA. 1/
Germany becomes the backbone of European defense.
Berlin plans $750B in military spending over 4 years, now holds the world’s 4th-largest defense budget, and will set standards as US influence over European security declines. 2/
Poland becomes the frontline force.
Warsaw spends 4.5% of GDP on defense, rapidly buying artillery, armor, and air defense to slow any Russian advance, prioritizing speed and domestic production over European suppliers. 3/
Ukraine’s top negotiator says a deal with Russia may come soon.
Kyrylo Budanov: “They all understand the war needs to end. I don’t think it will be long.” He says talks are moving toward a settlement despite limited visible progress, Bloomberg. 1/
Budanov, ex-head of military intelligence, leads Ukraine’s negotiating team.
He oversees talks with the US and Russia and manages prisoner exchanges that have already returned hundreds of Ukrainians from captivity. 2/
Budanov says positions are still "maximalist" but adds that both sides now understand the limits of what is acceptable — calling that “enormous progress” in negotiations. 3/
Ukraine is winning from Trump's Iran war. The US air defenses are too costly ato counter cheap Iranian drones. Ukraine is the only country with 4 years of proven combat experience against. Gulf states now line up to buy Ukrainian weapons — Christian Caryl in FP. 1/
On March 17, Zelenskyy addressed British Parliament and pitched Ukraine as a 21st-century arsenal of democracy. Days later he signed military cooperation deals with Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar, and launched trade talks with four more countries. 2/
Gulf states hit the limits of their US-supplied air defenses — too costly, too complex, already running low on munitions. Ukraine offers battle-tested drone defense built on 4 years of fighting Iranian Shaheds. Cheaper, faster, proven in combat. 3/