Good evening. Day 5 after the latest Russian attack on Kyiv. Day 277 of the war. I am president of the Kyiv School of Economics, a former minister of economy of Ukraine, and a professor of economics at the University of Pittsburgh. I left the US for Kyiv 4 days before the war 1/
and stayed there, with some short trips outside of Ukraine for fundraising. Officially, I am on sabbatical leave from Pittsburgh this year. I guess not many people have field sabbaticals, here the field is a war. I left the US because I must lead the Kyiv School of 2/
Economics through the war. I hold a green card and can leave Ukraine at any moment. But I do not want to and will not do it. Now, back to my day. It was busy and I am tired. Shopping, looking and assembling things. In short, preparing for another likely Russian attack tomorrow 3/
We got our super warm winter hiking clothing out. Many people suggested that we can sleep in a tent in our bedroom. So we dug out sleeping bags and went to buy a tent. 4/
The shops were open and it was Black Friday. Everything on sale. But when we were about to pay, the electricity went off. The shop had a battery and continued to run. They used Xmas lights to save electricity instead of their regular ones. It was very cozy. Here is a pic. 5/
Many people suggested that when the electricity and heating go out, we use candles or gas / kerosine heaters to warm the apartment. We decided against it. First, it is not too safe for novices. Second, none are on the market or we could find. So, we drove to 6/
another store to get at least some wood and coal. The plan is to use an simple and small firewood oven that we can set up on our balcony if all else fails. How do you drive when there is no lights in the city, that is, no traffic lights? Traffic police come out! My respect! 7/
We wanted to try the firewood idea, just to practice, when we get home. But we got exhausted bringing all this stuff to the 8th floor. So, we will try it another time. Will post the picture. Yet, my wife wanted some tea anyway. And also she wanted to get hot water 8/
for the morning. She asked me to start the generator so she can use electric tea pot. I did and discovered another problem. The snow on the balcony has melted. And the generator was sliding towards the windows because of vibration. I need a way to fix it in place, but that’s 9/
for tomorrow. Anyway, the water is boiled and stored in thermoses. We have two, one liter each. Perhaps, we should get more. We can probably order them delivered. Here is a pic of a delivery man on a bike 90 mins before the curfew. 10/
That’s a private service. Public services work too. Here is a tractor shoveling snow on a sidewalk. All pictures taken when we were driving back from a mall. 11/ twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
The mall looked normal too except for occasionally blinking light, shortage of products in electrical and heating departments, and occasional assignments by managers to their staff to remember to start generators for the night. There was even a sushi restaurant. A good one. 12/
In the morning, we checked out a center of “nezlamnost”. These are shelters when people can get warm, get some tea, access internet, and power their devices. Here is a Starlinks set up for you :). Very cute! 13/
The center is run by a charity organization “solomenski cats”. Solomenski is the place. Here is their logo. We proposed to them to equip 10 more centers like that and KSE Foundation will match / provide 50% of funding. The rest they should raise themselves 14/
The centers are set up officially at the request / initiative of the president and mayors. There is some funding. For basics. They are set up in hospitals and schools. The problem is that often money is not enough. You should have organizational and procurement capability 15/
This is where we will try to help. Finally, I posted separately about our students spending the last night at the university building (we have one, no dorm). Here are some pics. 16/ twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
We are ready for another attack. Russians often hit on Monday. That’s tomorrow. Every time damages get worse. No water and heat for days. But people are adapting. You can donate to KSE here. Thank you so much for your support!!!
Stubb (2024): You fight wars on the battlefield, but you win wars at home. We have civilian shelters. We can house about 4.5M Finns out of 5.5M.
We have a very comprehensive system of security of supply on food and energy, and we're doing dry runs on it right now. 1/
Stubb: The training activity that we are now providing to our allies is to such an extent, we're not even sure we can absorb as much of it. This shows the respect our allies have and their willingness to learn and train. So we're going to increase this. 2/
Stubb: We need a strong Franco-German axis for Europe to work properly, but be a little bit more lenient on how quick that axis is to be formed. We need German and French leadership. Polish leadership has come in very strongly as well because the nexus of power has moved eastbound in Europe. 3/
Ukraine’s Defense Minister Fedorov: Ukrainian forces killed 35,000 Russian soldiers in December and aim to reach up to 50,000 killed per month by the end of summer.
Bloomberg: European governments are assessing how long Russia is actually capable of sustaining the war. 1/
European intelligence services report a sharp spike in Russian losses over recent weeks. The number of killed soldiers is now approaching Russia’s recruitment capacity. 2/
If this trajectory continues, Russia will struggle to replace losses without a new mobilization, according to European assessments. 3/
Kyrylo Horbenko joined the Ukrainian army at 18 under the “18–24” contract.
After six months of service, he was killed by Russian artillery near Pokrovsk.
He was what Ukraine calls “the future of the army,” — WSJ. 1/
Right after turning 18, Kyrylo joined the Armed Forces.
He wanted frontline experience to later enter a military academy his family could not afford.
He wanted to become an officer. He wanted to serve for life.
Less than six months later, he was dead. 2/
In October 2025, the 18-year-old soldier was sent to the Pokrovsk sector.
Russian forces there outnumbered Ukrainian units by up to 10 to 1.
Kyrylo was killed during an artillery strike when his group was rushed to reinforce positions. Out of six soldiers, only one had real combat experience. 3/
Trump’s peace push on Ukraine runs into reality: territory, force, and exhaustion.
Washington’s idea is simple — Ukraine gives up land, gets security guarantees. Russia keeps bombing cities. Kyiv keeps fighting. 2026 offers three plausible paths, WSJ. 1/
Scenario 1: Keep fighting, keep talking.
The most likely outcome. Talks continue. War grinds on. Ukraine refuses to hand over Donbas without firm US-backed security guarantees. Russia demands territory first, rejects Western troops. 2/
Putin hasn’t softened.
Russian strikes on energy, maximalist goals and continued mobilization signal Moscow plans to keep going.
Ex-defense minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk: Giving Donbas now would hand Russia territory it failed to take by force and a launchpad for the next war. 3/
CSIS: Russian and Ukrainian military casualties could reach 2 million.
About 1.2M Russian troops are killed, wounded, or missing, including up to 325,000 dead. Ukrainian casualties are about 600,000 — The Guardian. 1/
The estimates rely on interviews with Western and Ukrainian officials and data from Mediazona and BBC Russian Service.
The Kremlin: The report is not credible, only Russia’s defense ministry can release casualty figures. 2/
Russian battlefield deaths in Ukraine exceed Soviet losses in Afghanistan by over 17 times and are more than 5 times higher than all Russian and Soviet wars since WWII combined.
Russian casualties are estimated at roughly 2-2.5 times Ukrainian losses. 3/
Serhiy Smolyaruk on 2022 Bakhmut: During the defense, Vagner group had a very interesting tactic. In front were those whom they recruited. Behind were already directly trained fighters. They were controlling the groups from a drone, what points to occupy, what to do. 1/
Smolyaruk on how they stole Russian heavy machine gun: Our group left at night. Extremely quietly. The enemy did not understand anything. The fighters also managed to take heavy machine gun with them. Everything around the house was mined, and the group safely returned. 2/
Smolyaruk: We gоt in the pickup truck to rescue wounded soldier. Went at full speed 50m from Russian position, in the daytime, without any reconnaissance. Everything is falling, there is a shootout. We managed to take him out, load him, and took him out without any losses. 3X