Good evening. Day 5 after the latest Russian attack on Kyiv. Day 277 of the war. I am president of the Kyiv School of Economics, a former minister of economy of Ukraine, and a professor of economics at the University of Pittsburgh. I left the US for Kyiv 4 days before the war 1/
and stayed there, with some short trips outside of Ukraine for fundraising. Officially, I am on sabbatical leave from Pittsburgh this year. I guess not many people have field sabbaticals, here the field is a war. I left the US because I must lead the Kyiv School of 2/
Economics through the war. I hold a green card and can leave Ukraine at any moment. But I do not want to and will not do it. Now, back to my day. It was busy and I am tired. Shopping, looking and assembling things. In short, preparing for another likely Russian attack tomorrow 3/
We got our super warm winter hiking clothing out. Many people suggested that we can sleep in a tent in our bedroom. So we dug out sleeping bags and went to buy a tent. 4/
The shops were open and it was Black Friday. Everything on sale. But when we were about to pay, the electricity went off. The shop had a battery and continued to run. They used Xmas lights to save electricity instead of their regular ones. It was very cozy. Here is a pic. 5/
Many people suggested that when the electricity and heating go out, we use candles or gas / kerosine heaters to warm the apartment. We decided against it. First, it is not too safe for novices. Second, none are on the market or we could find. So, we drove to 6/
another store to get at least some wood and coal. The plan is to use an simple and small firewood oven that we can set up on our balcony if all else fails. How do you drive when there is no lights in the city, that is, no traffic lights? Traffic police come out! My respect! 7/
We wanted to try the firewood idea, just to practice, when we get home. But we got exhausted bringing all this stuff to the 8th floor. So, we will try it another time. Will post the picture. Yet, my wife wanted some tea anyway. And also she wanted to get hot water 8/
for the morning. She asked me to start the generator so she can use electric tea pot. I did and discovered another problem. The snow on the balcony has melted. And the generator was sliding towards the windows because of vibration. I need a way to fix it in place, but that’s 9/
for tomorrow. Anyway, the water is boiled and stored in thermoses. We have two, one liter each. Perhaps, we should get more. We can probably order them delivered. Here is a pic of a delivery man on a bike 90 mins before the curfew. 10/
That’s a private service. Public services work too. Here is a tractor shoveling snow on a sidewalk. All pictures taken when we were driving back from a mall. 11/ twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
The mall looked normal too except for occasionally blinking light, shortage of products in electrical and heating departments, and occasional assignments by managers to their staff to remember to start generators for the night. There was even a sushi restaurant. A good one. 12/
In the morning, we checked out a center of “nezlamnost”. These are shelters when people can get warm, get some tea, access internet, and power their devices. Here is a Starlinks set up for you :). Very cute! 13/
The center is run by a charity organization “solomenski cats”. Solomenski is the place. Here is their logo. We proposed to them to equip 10 more centers like that and KSE Foundation will match / provide 50% of funding. The rest they should raise themselves 14/
The centers are set up officially at the request / initiative of the president and mayors. There is some funding. For basics. They are set up in hospitals and schools. The problem is that often money is not enough. You should have organizational and procurement capability 15/
This is where we will try to help. Finally, I posted separately about our students spending the last night at the university building (we have one, no dorm). Here are some pics. 16/ twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
We are ready for another attack. Russians often hit on Monday. That’s tomorrow. Every time damages get worse. No water and heat for days. But people are adapting. You can donate to KSE here. Thank you so much for your support!!!
Hodges: Trump is sincere when he says he wants to end the killing in Ukraine and see peace.
The problem is he hasn’t done what’s necessary for lasting peace. He won’t say Russia is the aggressor or tell Putin to get his troops out. 1/
Hodges: The hope was that Putin would overreach and make Trump angry enough to act, using his economic and diplomatic leverage and aid for Ukraine.
But he’s been hesitant. Now Putin has crossed the line, keeping the same maximalist objectives after planned Budapest meeting. 2/
Hodges: The USSR collapse caught us by surprise. Millions became free, but it left a terrible situation in Russia leading to today. Strategically, we should anticipate what happens if the Putin regime collapses. 3/
Me: The situation in Pokrovsk is critical. Russians are inside the city — not in large numbers, but fighting them is extremely hard.
Ukraine has sent reinforcements. The town is destroyed yet crucial, as it opens the path deeper into Ukraine, my interview for CNN. 1/
Me: Winter cuts both ways. Frozen ground makes kill zones easier but supply harder. If Russians push beyond Pokrovsk, they may gain some advantage, yet moving will be tough.
For Ukrainians, defense will be brutal too. Winter makes everything harder on both sides. 2/
Me: Ukraine’s strikes on Russia’s energy sites matter — they cause shortages, disrupt logistics, and weaken operations near the front. These are real, military “sanctions.”
They won’t force Putin to negotiate yet, but they create pressure that makes talks likelier later. 3/
Kharkiv, 40 km from Russia, faces constant strikes. Lviv, 70 km from Poland, is booming as people and companies move west.
Since 2022, Lviv’s population has reached 1 million, with 280 firms relocated, including 60 from Kharkiv. — The Economist. 1/
Lviv’s mayor Andriy Sadovyi says the city gained a new industrial park, a university and EU-funded rail links to Poland and Romania.
The historic center is full again with residents, tourists and students. Geography now defines opportunity.
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Kharkiv, once Ukraine’s second-largest city, is half-empty.
Before the invasion, it had 270,000 students; now most study online. Human-rights advocate Nataliya Zubar says only 1.2–1.3 million of its 1.6 million residents remain.
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Lukoil’s overseas assets may soon get a new owner.
Swedish billionaire Torbjörn Törnqvist, CEO of Gunvor, plans to buy the Russian oil giant’s foreign operations (worth up to $20B) after new U.S. sanctions hit Lukoil, reports WSJ. 1/
If approved by the U.S. and U.K., the acquisition would hand Gunvor control of refineries across Europe, gas stations from the Bronx to Sicily, and oil fields in the Middle East and Central Asia.
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Gunvor says no buy-back deal exists for Lukoil after the war. The company has asked Washington and London for sanctions clearance, stressing it made “no such assurances.”
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A Ukrainian double agent known as “Andrei” is playing Russia at its own game - The Telegraph.
When the FSB ordered him to bomb a government building, he built the device, sent the coordinates and let Ukraine’s SBU catch the Russian courier red-handed.
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Andrei answers FSB “job ads” on social media, poses as a saboteur, and flips the missions into sting operations - helping Kyiv foil attacks and capture collaborators.
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The FSB pays up to $5,000 for arson or sabotage and even $3 per fake “Nazi graffiti” photo to fuel propaganda.
Agents post on Telegram, luring desperate Ukrainians to act as mercenaries.
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McFaul: The old Cold War was autocrats versus Democrats, communists versus the free world. Now we have great power competition and battles within states — Hungary, Italy, France, UK, United States. Putin has invested in these relationships for decades. 1/
McFaul: I didn’t like how Trump talked about Putin early on — he was naive. I see autocrats versus Democrats; he sees strong versus weak leaders. When a strong leader clashes with him, he’s annoyed — that’s a good thing. 2/
McFaul: Does Trump have a strategy to pressure Putin to end the war? Sanctions — we need more. Zelenskyy wanted new weapons, Tomahawks, to pressure Putin. Wars end by victory or stalemate. Russians are gaining ground; if Zelenskyy stops them, it could allow negotiations. 3/