Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Nov 27, 2022 17 tweets 6 min read Read on X
Good evening. Day 5 after the latest Russian attack on Kyiv. Day 277 of the war. I am president of the Kyiv School of Economics, a former minister of economy of Ukraine, and a professor of economics at the University of Pittsburgh. I left the US for Kyiv 4 days before the war 1/ Image
and stayed there, with some short trips outside of Ukraine for fundraising. Officially, I am on sabbatical leave from Pittsburgh this year. I guess not many people have field sabbaticals, here the field is a war. I left the US because I must lead the Kyiv School of 2/
Economics through the war. I hold a green card and can leave Ukraine at any moment. But I do not want to and will not do it. Now, back to my day. It was busy and I am tired. Shopping, looking and assembling things. In short, preparing for another likely Russian attack tomorrow 3/
We got our super warm winter hiking clothing out. Many people suggested that we can sleep in a tent in our bedroom. So we dug out sleeping bags and went to buy a tent. 4/ Image
The shops were open and it was Black Friday. Everything on sale. But when we were about to pay, the electricity went off. The shop had a battery and continued to run. They used Xmas lights to save electricity instead of their regular ones. It was very cozy. Here is a pic. 5/ Image
Many people suggested that when the electricity and heating go out, we use candles or gas / kerosine heaters to warm the apartment. We decided against it. First, it is not too safe for novices. Second, none are on the market or we could find. So, we drove to 6/
another store to get at least some wood and coal. The plan is to use an simple and small firewood oven that we can set up on our balcony if all else fails. How do you drive when there is no lights in the city, that is, no traffic lights? Traffic police come out! My respect! 7/ Image
We wanted to try the firewood idea, just to practice, when we get home. But we got exhausted bringing all this stuff to the 8th floor. So, we will try it another time. Will post the picture. Yet, my wife wanted some tea anyway. And also she wanted to get hot water 8/ Image
for the morning. She asked me to start the generator so she can use electric tea pot. I did and discovered another problem. The snow on the balcony has melted. And the generator was sliding towards the windows because of vibration. I need a way to fix it in place, but that’s 9/
for tomorrow. Anyway, the water is boiled and stored in thermoses. We have two, one liter each. Perhaps, we should get more. We can probably order them delivered. Here is a pic of a delivery man on a bike 90 mins before the curfew. 10/ Image
That’s a private service. Public services work too. Here is a tractor shoveling snow on a sidewalk. All pictures taken when we were driving back from a mall. 11/ twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
The mall looked normal too except for occasionally blinking light, shortage of products in electrical and heating departments, and occasional assignments by managers to their staff to remember to start generators for the night. There was even a sushi restaurant. A good one. 12/ Image
In the morning, we checked out a center of “nezlamnost”. These are shelters when people can get warm, get some tea, access internet, and power their devices. Here is a Starlinks set up for you :). Very cute! 13/ Image
The center is run by a charity organization “solomenski cats”. Solomenski is the place. Here is their logo. We proposed to them to equip 10 more centers like that and KSE Foundation will match / provide 50% of funding. The rest they should raise themselves 14/ Image
The centers are set up officially at the request / initiative of the president and mayors. There is some funding. For basics. They are set up in hospitals and schools. The problem is that often money is not enough. You should have organizational and procurement capability 15/ Image
This is where we will try to help. Finally, I posted separately about our students spending the last night at the university building (we have one, no dorm). Here are some pics. 16/ twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
We are ready for another attack. Russians often hit on Monday. That’s tomorrow. Every time damages get worse. No water and heat for days. But people are adapting. You can donate to KSE here. Thank you so much for your support!!!

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More from @Mylovanov

Feb 3
Why Donetsk sits at the center of the peace talks.

In Abu Dhabi, Rubio called it the one remaining item. Moscow disputes that — but the Ukrainian-held part of Donetsk is the core territorial demand Russia won’t drop, NYT. 1/ Image
Russia still wants 2,082 sq miles of Donetsk — smaller than Delaware, but politically decisive.

For months, Moscow has signaled it won’t stop fighting until Kyiv hands over the rest of the region it still controls. 2/
Donetsk is the symbolic heart of the war.

Since 2014, the Kremlin has framed the invasion around “saving Donbas.” Luhansk is fully occupied. Leaving part of Donetsk outside Russian control breaks the propaganda story. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Feb 3
Foreman: Russia's "third army" is effectively a bit of a rabble. It will throw emphasis back onto nuclear weapons.

Russia is already inferior economically, militarily, financially to Europe. That gap's going to grow. Russia is in decline. Russian economy is creaking along. 1/
Foreman: Why would Russia want to attack NATO when having suffered at the hands of Ukraine so grievously and then have to face an even more superior enemy?

Even European NATO could handle the Russian army let alone with the Americans there. An army quite good on paper. 2/
Foreman: More evidence was building that Russia was going to invade Ukraine. Shoigu and Gerasimov met with Putin.

We'd speak to the Russians directly. It was the last attempt to deter them. They were Champions League liars. We saw through their lies. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Feb 3
Sikorski: The Nobel Peace Prize is of some interest. Right now, prime ministers get letters. As foreign ministers, we have the right to nominate.

If President Trump secures a fair peace for Ukraine, I shall do it myself. But it's I who will decide what a fair peace is. 1/
Sikorski: Norwegian air defense systems and F-35s were the 1st to help protect the Polish sky. Defense cooperation has been growing steadily and effectively.

Together we are helping Ukrainian soldiers who can now train in Poland in camps. 2/
Sikorski: Our locations give us a strategic role in the regions near to Russia. Poland is between East and West. In NATO, they used to joke that God created Poland for tank warfare.

We are trying to get away from that. We like to think of ourselves as southern Scandinavia. 3/
Read 10 tweets
Feb 2
At the end of Ukraine conflict, we'll have a very big Russia problem

Russia will be reconstituting its force on NATO borders, led by the same people, convinced we're the adversary, and very angry. Putin taking on Baltic republics might be a gamble he's willing to take, Times 1/
Russia maintains the world's biggest nuclear stockpile: ~5,000 warheads on 324 ballistic missiles, 71 bombers, and 12 missile launching submarines.

Much of its arsenal, including strategic weapons, has not been damaged in Ukraine. 2/
Russia produces more than 200 Shahed drones a day.

If there was a ceasefire with Ukraine and production continued at the same rate, they would soon have stockpiled thousands for possible use against NATO countries. Russia's arms industry is running hot. 3/
Read 11 tweets
Feb 2
Kasparov: Europeans’ dominant thought has been that somehow war in Ukraine will end: “Somehow they’ll come to an agreement. We don’t want to go all the way; we’re not at war with Putin.”

It’s still this mentality of detente. No one took any radical action. 1/
Kasparov: The Russian government will be a threat. This threat could escalate into outright aggression. Europe is preparing for this. Multi-year military budgets are being planned. It is understood that this war must be won and Putin deprived of the ability to fight. 2/
Kasparov: This is a war in which the stakes aren’t just Ukraine’s survival as a state and a nation. Essentially, the future of all of Europe is at stake. The future of the Russian opposition depends on whether we can offer an adequate political expression of this demand. 3X
Read 5 tweets
Feb 2
Sarah Paine: Putin is fixated on Ukraine, Xi on Taiwan — opposite ends of Eurasia. Their main theaters don’t align.

The West should avoid hot war, avoid trade wars, grow stronger. While Putin burns through Russia’s assets in Ukraine. That’s how the last Cold War was won.

1/
Sarah Paine: Putin is trying to build an empire in the age of nationalism. It’s a non-starter.

He’s burning Russia’s military in Ukraine while China expands into Central Asia.

Moscow chose a hot war while weak, and Beijing is strong. That’s what makes this so damaging.

2/
Sarah Paine: Siberia has exactly what China needs — resources and, above all, water.

Lake Baikal holds over 20% of the world’s surface freshwater.

China is famous for massive water projects, and Siberia is the nearest ‘quick fix.’

3X
Read 5 tweets

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