Good evening. Day 5 after the latest Russian attack on Kyiv. Day 277 of the war. I am president of the Kyiv School of Economics, a former minister of economy of Ukraine, and a professor of economics at the University of Pittsburgh. I left the US for Kyiv 4 days before the war 1/
and stayed there, with some short trips outside of Ukraine for fundraising. Officially, I am on sabbatical leave from Pittsburgh this year. I guess not many people have field sabbaticals, here the field is a war. I left the US because I must lead the Kyiv School of 2/
Economics through the war. I hold a green card and can leave Ukraine at any moment. But I do not want to and will not do it. Now, back to my day. It was busy and I am tired. Shopping, looking and assembling things. In short, preparing for another likely Russian attack tomorrow 3/
We got our super warm winter hiking clothing out. Many people suggested that we can sleep in a tent in our bedroom. So we dug out sleeping bags and went to buy a tent. 4/
The shops were open and it was Black Friday. Everything on sale. But when we were about to pay, the electricity went off. The shop had a battery and continued to run. They used Xmas lights to save electricity instead of their regular ones. It was very cozy. Here is a pic. 5/
Many people suggested that when the electricity and heating go out, we use candles or gas / kerosine heaters to warm the apartment. We decided against it. First, it is not too safe for novices. Second, none are on the market or we could find. So, we drove to 6/
another store to get at least some wood and coal. The plan is to use an simple and small firewood oven that we can set up on our balcony if all else fails. How do you drive when there is no lights in the city, that is, no traffic lights? Traffic police come out! My respect! 7/
We wanted to try the firewood idea, just to practice, when we get home. But we got exhausted bringing all this stuff to the 8th floor. So, we will try it another time. Will post the picture. Yet, my wife wanted some tea anyway. And also she wanted to get hot water 8/
for the morning. She asked me to start the generator so she can use electric tea pot. I did and discovered another problem. The snow on the balcony has melted. And the generator was sliding towards the windows because of vibration. I need a way to fix it in place, but that’s 9/
for tomorrow. Anyway, the water is boiled and stored in thermoses. We have two, one liter each. Perhaps, we should get more. We can probably order them delivered. Here is a pic of a delivery man on a bike 90 mins before the curfew. 10/
That’s a private service. Public services work too. Here is a tractor shoveling snow on a sidewalk. All pictures taken when we were driving back from a mall. 11/ twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
The mall looked normal too except for occasionally blinking light, shortage of products in electrical and heating departments, and occasional assignments by managers to their staff to remember to start generators for the night. There was even a sushi restaurant. A good one. 12/
In the morning, we checked out a center of “nezlamnost”. These are shelters when people can get warm, get some tea, access internet, and power their devices. Here is a Starlinks set up for you :). Very cute! 13/
The center is run by a charity organization “solomenski cats”. Solomenski is the place. Here is their logo. We proposed to them to equip 10 more centers like that and KSE Foundation will match / provide 50% of funding. The rest they should raise themselves 14/
The centers are set up officially at the request / initiative of the president and mayors. There is some funding. For basics. They are set up in hospitals and schools. The problem is that often money is not enough. You should have organizational and procurement capability 15/
This is where we will try to help. Finally, I posted separately about our students spending the last night at the university building (we have one, no dorm). Here are some pics. 16/ twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
We are ready for another attack. Russians often hit on Monday. That’s tomorrow. Every time damages get worse. No water and heat for days. But people are adapting. You can donate to KSE here. Thank you so much for your support!!!
UK may move from sanctions to seizures — targeting Russia’s shadow fleet.
The Guardian: London is weighing the capture of a Russia-linked tanker, an escalatory step that could open a new front against Moscow as oil revenues fall. 1/
KSE Institute: Russia’s oil and gas revenues fell 24% in 2025, down to 22% of state income from 41% in 2022.
A maritime services ban plus tanker seizures would be very painful for the Kremlin. 2/
British defense sources confirm NATO discussions identified military options to seize “stateless” shadow fleet ships.
In Jan alone, 23 tankers using false flags transited the Channel or Baltic, many carrying Russian oil to China, India, Turkey. 3/
Jeffrey Epstein spent years trying to meet Putin, cultivated ties with Russian officials including an FSB academy grad.
Epstein once asked a Kremlin contact for help after claiming a Russian woman was blackmailing "powerful businessmen" in NYC — The WP. 1/
Putin’s name appears 1,000+ times in newly released DOJ files. He made repeated attempts from 2013-2018 to arrange a Putin meeting, often through former Norwegian PM Thorbjørn Jagland. No evidence shows it ever happened. 2/
Sergey Belyakov, a high-ranking FSB academy graduate and Russia's deputy economic development minister, maintained a close friendship with Epstein from 2014-2018. He invited Epstein to Russia's top investment forum multiple times. 3/
Brittney Shki-Giiziz, Canadian volunteer in Ukraine: My first day fighting was absolutely excellent. I destroyed a train station with a tank. Being at war was physically easier than the training the Canadian Army puts us through. It prepared me very well for war. 1/
Shki-Giiziz: The truth is that Russia is pushing. We are holding, but we are being pushed back constantly.
Our safe houses are pushed further back. We had positions in Myrnograd and Pokrovsk not so long ago. 2/
Shki-Giiziz: My first motivation for learning Ukrainian was to serve in a tank. Language was a requirement. I studied Ukrainian and the 25th Brigade gave me a chance. At first I just studied the commands. Now I’m conversational and can work freely in Ukrainian. 3/
A German wargame claims Russia could break NATO with just 15,000 troops — by exploiting hesitation.
Ben Hodges for Telegraph: A small Russian force could break NATO due to Western paralysis. The core fix is Ukraine. 1/
The scenario: Oct 2026. Russia stages a “humanitarian crisis” in Kaliningrad, moves into the Suwałki Corridor, seizes Marijampolė.
US stays out. Poland mobilises but hesitates. Germany dithers. Baltics get cut off. NATO credibility collapses — on paper. 2/
Hodges: Ukraine stopped a far stronger Russian army in 2022. Helping Ukraine defeat Russia is the strongest deterrent — it destroys the myth that Russia can win against NATO-level forces. 3/
Bloomberg: Russia is short nearly 10-11 mln workers and is now recruiting labor from India and Sri Lanka to keep its economy running as war and demographics drain the workforce. 1/
For decades, Russia relied on migrants from Central Asia. That model is breaking down as the Ukraine war, emigration, and aging push the country into its deepest labor crisis in years. 2/
Moscow estimates it will need 11 mln additional workers by 2030. Unemployment is about 2%, while one-quarter of the population is already retirement age. There is no domestic reserve left. 3/