Good evening. Day 5 after the latest Russian attack on Kyiv. Day 277 of the war. I am president of the Kyiv School of Economics, a former minister of economy of Ukraine, and a professor of economics at the University of Pittsburgh. I left the US for Kyiv 4 days before the war 1/
and stayed there, with some short trips outside of Ukraine for fundraising. Officially, I am on sabbatical leave from Pittsburgh this year. I guess not many people have field sabbaticals, here the field is a war. I left the US because I must lead the Kyiv School of 2/
Economics through the war. I hold a green card and can leave Ukraine at any moment. But I do not want to and will not do it. Now, back to my day. It was busy and I am tired. Shopping, looking and assembling things. In short, preparing for another likely Russian attack tomorrow 3/
We got our super warm winter hiking clothing out. Many people suggested that we can sleep in a tent in our bedroom. So we dug out sleeping bags and went to buy a tent. 4/
The shops were open and it was Black Friday. Everything on sale. But when we were about to pay, the electricity went off. The shop had a battery and continued to run. They used Xmas lights to save electricity instead of their regular ones. It was very cozy. Here is a pic. 5/
Many people suggested that when the electricity and heating go out, we use candles or gas / kerosine heaters to warm the apartment. We decided against it. First, it is not too safe for novices. Second, none are on the market or we could find. So, we drove to 6/
another store to get at least some wood and coal. The plan is to use an simple and small firewood oven that we can set up on our balcony if all else fails. How do you drive when there is no lights in the city, that is, no traffic lights? Traffic police come out! My respect! 7/
We wanted to try the firewood idea, just to practice, when we get home. But we got exhausted bringing all this stuff to the 8th floor. So, we will try it another time. Will post the picture. Yet, my wife wanted some tea anyway. And also she wanted to get hot water 8/
for the morning. She asked me to start the generator so she can use electric tea pot. I did and discovered another problem. The snow on the balcony has melted. And the generator was sliding towards the windows because of vibration. I need a way to fix it in place, but that’s 9/
for tomorrow. Anyway, the water is boiled and stored in thermoses. We have two, one liter each. Perhaps, we should get more. We can probably order them delivered. Here is a pic of a delivery man on a bike 90 mins before the curfew. 10/
That’s a private service. Public services work too. Here is a tractor shoveling snow on a sidewalk. All pictures taken when we were driving back from a mall. 11/ twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
The mall looked normal too except for occasionally blinking light, shortage of products in electrical and heating departments, and occasional assignments by managers to their staff to remember to start generators for the night. There was even a sushi restaurant. A good one. 12/
In the morning, we checked out a center of “nezlamnost”. These are shelters when people can get warm, get some tea, access internet, and power their devices. Here is a Starlinks set up for you :). Very cute! 13/
The center is run by a charity organization “solomenski cats”. Solomenski is the place. Here is their logo. We proposed to them to equip 10 more centers like that and KSE Foundation will match / provide 50% of funding. The rest they should raise themselves 14/
The centers are set up officially at the request / initiative of the president and mayors. There is some funding. For basics. They are set up in hospitals and schools. The problem is that often money is not enough. You should have organizational and procurement capability 15/
This is where we will try to help. Finally, I posted separately about our students spending the last night at the university building (we have one, no dorm). Here are some pics. 16/ twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
We are ready for another attack. Russians often hit on Monday. That’s tomorrow. Every time damages get worse. No water and heat for days. But people are adapting. You can donate to KSE here. Thank you so much for your support!!!
Ukraine’s Ambassador to the US, Stefanishyna: If Russia had any real desire to negotiate or compromise, there would be zero obstacles.
Ukraine has shown openness and flexibility in every format proposed, including by President Trump. The aggressor never had real intent. 1/
Stefanishyna: Ukraine’s capabilities are now seen and felt by Russia on its own territory.
They deprive Moscow of the ability to attack Ukrainian cities and kill more families. That pressure is one reason Putin is being forced back toward the option of dialogue. 2/
Stefanishyna: Ukraine is depriving Russia of the fuel of war, literally fuel, but also the resources Moscow gains from selling products abroad and using sanctions waivers to finance aggression.
Deep strikes cut the money and capabilities that keep Russia’s war going. 3/
Gen. Wesley Clark: Putin is trapped. He sees no way out that preserves his survival as Russia’s leader, so he keeps pushing and hopes Trump’s friendship, Chinese help, Iranian help and U.S. distraction will cut support to Ukraine until Ukraine somehow collapses. 1/
Clark: Putin really believed he could seize Kyiv, capture Zelenskyy, shoot him in the street and take over, despite 10 years of war already showing Ukraine’s resistance.
He did not understand the spirit of Ukraine and was blinded by his own desire. 2/
Clark: Putin is not a military leader. He is an intelligence man. Stalin knew armies, fear and losses from war.
Putin knows war from books, but he does not know it. That matters when fantasy meets a battlefield that refuses to obey. 3/
Even some of Russia’s most prominent hawks are starting to say publicly that Russia cannot win this war.
The debate inside Russia is no longer how to achieve victory in Ukraine. It is whether victory is still possible at all, WSJ. 1/
Oleg Tsaryov was supposed to become the Kremlin’s man in Kyiv after Russia captured the Ukrainian capital in 2022.
Now he says Russian propaganda created an illusion of inevitable victory that is colliding with reality “in the most painful form.” 2/
Aleksey Chadaev, a former Kremlin official who runs a drone warfare research center, warns the current course leads “not just to non-victory, but to full-scale defeat.”
Khrushcheva, great-granddaughter of Soviet leader:
There's no [Ukraine] deal because Putin wants what he wants.
Trump likes strongmen, so Putin thought he could milk it. In Anchorage last August Trump probably said he'd push Zelenskyy out of Donbas. He couldn't deliver. 1/
Khrushcheva: Putin thinks history will favor him — that's why he pushes for Donbas, a promise he must keep.
But most Russians don't care and didn't want this war, only 20–25% did. They call it a special military operation, but an operation can't last 4.5 years. 2/
Khrushcheva: Putin is not in a good position now. He had a great chance to end the war with Trump from March to August, who gave him every opportunity.
He could have been a victor if he didn't want as much. I'm not sure he goes into history as Peter the Great. 3/
Starmer: The UK and NATO intelligence assess Russia could attack a NATO country as soon as 2030.
That's the urgency behind everything we're doing now.
1/
Starmer: Ukraine war pushed energy prices up. Iran crisis pushed them up again.
UK deploys forces to the Gulf defending civilian targets from Iranian attacks — our pilots were airborne within hours. All of this hits our resources at home.
2/
Starmer: The conflict extends beyond Ukraine and the Middle East.
Cyber attacks, airspace incursions, waterway incursions, threats to undersea cables that power our economy — these are constant, real, and we battle them daily.
Applebaum: Trump is using a specific language from the 1930s: “enemies within,” “enemies of the people,” migrants and political opponents as “vermin,” migrants “poisoning the blood” of Americans.
That language comes from Hitler, Stalin and the Stasi. 1/
Applebaum: American politics has been racist before. Americans have called each other traitors and unpatriotic.
But calling people insects, vermin or parasites is different, it is language used by regimes that treat enemies as less than human. 2/
Applebaum: I did not say Trump is Hitler or that he will cause a new Holocaust.
The threat is different: Trump assaulting and undermining institutions, judges, courts, bureaucrats, which is how most democracies fail today. 3/