Good evening. Day 5 after the latest Russian attack on Kyiv. Day 277 of the war. I am president of the Kyiv School of Economics, a former minister of economy of Ukraine, and a professor of economics at the University of Pittsburgh. I left the US for Kyiv 4 days before the war 1/
and stayed there, with some short trips outside of Ukraine for fundraising. Officially, I am on sabbatical leave from Pittsburgh this year. I guess not many people have field sabbaticals, here the field is a war. I left the US because I must lead the Kyiv School of 2/
Economics through the war. I hold a green card and can leave Ukraine at any moment. But I do not want to and will not do it. Now, back to my day. It was busy and I am tired. Shopping, looking and assembling things. In short, preparing for another likely Russian attack tomorrow 3/
We got our super warm winter hiking clothing out. Many people suggested that we can sleep in a tent in our bedroom. So we dug out sleeping bags and went to buy a tent. 4/
The shops were open and it was Black Friday. Everything on sale. But when we were about to pay, the electricity went off. The shop had a battery and continued to run. They used Xmas lights to save electricity instead of their regular ones. It was very cozy. Here is a pic. 5/
Many people suggested that when the electricity and heating go out, we use candles or gas / kerosine heaters to warm the apartment. We decided against it. First, it is not too safe for novices. Second, none are on the market or we could find. So, we drove to 6/
another store to get at least some wood and coal. The plan is to use an simple and small firewood oven that we can set up on our balcony if all else fails. How do you drive when there is no lights in the city, that is, no traffic lights? Traffic police come out! My respect! 7/
We wanted to try the firewood idea, just to practice, when we get home. But we got exhausted bringing all this stuff to the 8th floor. So, we will try it another time. Will post the picture. Yet, my wife wanted some tea anyway. And also she wanted to get hot water 8/
for the morning. She asked me to start the generator so she can use electric tea pot. I did and discovered another problem. The snow on the balcony has melted. And the generator was sliding towards the windows because of vibration. I need a way to fix it in place, but that’s 9/
for tomorrow. Anyway, the water is boiled and stored in thermoses. We have two, one liter each. Perhaps, we should get more. We can probably order them delivered. Here is a pic of a delivery man on a bike 90 mins before the curfew. 10/
That’s a private service. Public services work too. Here is a tractor shoveling snow on a sidewalk. All pictures taken when we were driving back from a mall. 11/ twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
The mall looked normal too except for occasionally blinking light, shortage of products in electrical and heating departments, and occasional assignments by managers to their staff to remember to start generators for the night. There was even a sushi restaurant. A good one. 12/
In the morning, we checked out a center of “nezlamnost”. These are shelters when people can get warm, get some tea, access internet, and power their devices. Here is a Starlinks set up for you :). Very cute! 13/
The center is run by a charity organization “solomenski cats”. Solomenski is the place. Here is their logo. We proposed to them to equip 10 more centers like that and KSE Foundation will match / provide 50% of funding. The rest they should raise themselves 14/
The centers are set up officially at the request / initiative of the president and mayors. There is some funding. For basics. They are set up in hospitals and schools. The problem is that often money is not enough. You should have organizational and procurement capability 15/
This is where we will try to help. Finally, I posted separately about our students spending the last night at the university building (we have one, no dorm). Here are some pics. 16/ twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
We are ready for another attack. Russians often hit on Monday. That’s tomorrow. Every time damages get worse. No water and heat for days. But people are adapting. You can donate to KSE here. Thank you so much for your support!!!
China gained more from the Iran war than anyone — without firing a single shot.
Diplomatic leverage, military intelligence, energy dominance, rare earth dependency — Axios. 1/
The US committed roughly 80% of its JASSM-ER stealth cruise missile inventory to the Iran fight, pulling stockpiles from the Pacific.
The conflict significantly depleted US supplies of Tomahawk and Patriot missiles, THAAD interceptors and drones. 2/
Beijing got a free masterclass in modern American warfighting: how the US uses AI to target, how it rotates carrier groups, how cheap Iranian drones drain its most expensive interceptors.
For Chinese war planners gaming out a Taiwan invasion, it was better than any simulation. 3/
Ukraine rep. to UN Melnyk: Russia murders civilians. They strike ambulances, emergency personnel and firefighters. Between March 30th-April 13th, Russia launched over 3600 strike UAVs, 1350 guided bombs and more than 40 missiles against Ukraine, killing at least 70 civilians. 1/
Melnyk: Russia does not control more than 20% of the Donetsk region territory. This is pure blackmail. Russia demands Ukraine to abandon one of the most heavily fortified and logistically developed defensive lines. 2/
Melnyk: We must not forget that beyond these fortifications there are cities and villages where Ukrainians live. How can we leave hundreds of thousands of these people?
To seize the territory, Putin would have to send at least another 1.5M soldiers. 3X
Stubb: I don’t believe in a world without alliances.
The danger today is a world of spheres of influence, where institutions weaken and big powers do what they want while small countries do what they can.
1/
Stubb: We are witnessing a new shift in world order — like after 1918, 1945, and 1989. The post-Cold War system lasted about three decades.
Its break began with Russia’s war on Ukraine and has been accelerated by recent US foreign policy and new regional wars.
2/
Stubb: After the Cold War came a unipolar moment with the US in the driver’s seat.
Many believed no reform of post-WWII institutions was needed. That era began to fade after 9/11, Iraq, Afghanistan, and other shocks that changed global politics.
From a Kyiv basement, a Tenebris pilot downed a Russian drone 200km away.
This month, Wild Hornets downed two Shaheds from 500km. This week, one of its Stings downed another 2,000km away with the pilot outside Ukraine — Financial Times. 1/
The first generation of interceptors relied on radio frequencies. Operators had to stay near the front — and became targets themselves.
Oleksandr Kamyshin, Zelenskyy's adviser on strategic industries: "Distance is no longer a limitation." 2/
Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky: “Ukrainian interceptor drones downed 70% of all Russian drones in the Kyiv region in March.”
But Ukraine produces more interceptors than it has pilots. Internet-based piloting fixes both: fewer operators underground, wider coverage. 3/
The IMF stopped forecasting the global economy. Instead it offered a "reference scenario" and darker alternatives.
The cause is not Iran. Washington is dismantling the three systems that kept American power cheap: NATO, the dollar, free trade — Clive Crook, Bloomberg. 1/
Europe is already preparing. The EU is testing NATO-style defense guarantees designed to work without Washington.
Confidence in the alliance has fallen sharply over the past year — and it is rebuilding the architecture accordingly. 2/
On defense: Europe will spend more than its NATO fair share would have required.
The US will spend more too — its global security interests need allies. Washington was furious when European partners refused to help force open the Strait of Hormuz. 3/
Applebaum: Trump does not think strategically and does not have an endgame.
He began the war without clear goals, never asked the American people, never spoke to Congress, and assumed it would be some kind of two-day operation that would end fast. 1/
Applebaum: Trump did not think through the second and third-order consequences — oil, the world economy, other Middle Eastern states.
He even seemed surprised Iran could use drones against the Gulf states. If he heard warnings, he did not absorb them. 2/
Applebaum: When an American plane went down in Iran, Trump’s fear was not for the pilot, the crew member, or the soldiers.
It was for himself and his reputation. That is why his presence unnerved people in the room making the actual rescue decisions. 3/