Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Nov 27, 2022 17 tweets 6 min read Read on X
Good evening. Day 5 after the latest Russian attack on Kyiv. Day 277 of the war. I am president of the Kyiv School of Economics, a former minister of economy of Ukraine, and a professor of economics at the University of Pittsburgh. I left the US for Kyiv 4 days before the war 1/ Image
and stayed there, with some short trips outside of Ukraine for fundraising. Officially, I am on sabbatical leave from Pittsburgh this year. I guess not many people have field sabbaticals, here the field is a war. I left the US because I must lead the Kyiv School of 2/
Economics through the war. I hold a green card and can leave Ukraine at any moment. But I do not want to and will not do it. Now, back to my day. It was busy and I am tired. Shopping, looking and assembling things. In short, preparing for another likely Russian attack tomorrow 3/
We got our super warm winter hiking clothing out. Many people suggested that we can sleep in a tent in our bedroom. So we dug out sleeping bags and went to buy a tent. 4/ Image
The shops were open and it was Black Friday. Everything on sale. But when we were about to pay, the electricity went off. The shop had a battery and continued to run. They used Xmas lights to save electricity instead of their regular ones. It was very cozy. Here is a pic. 5/ Image
Many people suggested that when the electricity and heating go out, we use candles or gas / kerosine heaters to warm the apartment. We decided against it. First, it is not too safe for novices. Second, none are on the market or we could find. So, we drove to 6/
another store to get at least some wood and coal. The plan is to use an simple and small firewood oven that we can set up on our balcony if all else fails. How do you drive when there is no lights in the city, that is, no traffic lights? Traffic police come out! My respect! 7/ Image
We wanted to try the firewood idea, just to practice, when we get home. But we got exhausted bringing all this stuff to the 8th floor. So, we will try it another time. Will post the picture. Yet, my wife wanted some tea anyway. And also she wanted to get hot water 8/ Image
for the morning. She asked me to start the generator so she can use electric tea pot. I did and discovered another problem. The snow on the balcony has melted. And the generator was sliding towards the windows because of vibration. I need a way to fix it in place, but that’s 9/
for tomorrow. Anyway, the water is boiled and stored in thermoses. We have two, one liter each. Perhaps, we should get more. We can probably order them delivered. Here is a pic of a delivery man on a bike 90 mins before the curfew. 10/ Image
That’s a private service. Public services work too. Here is a tractor shoveling snow on a sidewalk. All pictures taken when we were driving back from a mall. 11/ twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
The mall looked normal too except for occasionally blinking light, shortage of products in electrical and heating departments, and occasional assignments by managers to their staff to remember to start generators for the night. There was even a sushi restaurant. A good one. 12/ Image
In the morning, we checked out a center of “nezlamnost”. These are shelters when people can get warm, get some tea, access internet, and power their devices. Here is a Starlinks set up for you :). Very cute! 13/ Image
The center is run by a charity organization “solomenski cats”. Solomenski is the place. Here is their logo. We proposed to them to equip 10 more centers like that and KSE Foundation will match / provide 50% of funding. The rest they should raise themselves 14/ Image
The centers are set up officially at the request / initiative of the president and mayors. There is some funding. For basics. They are set up in hospitals and schools. The problem is that often money is not enough. You should have organizational and procurement capability 15/ Image
This is where we will try to help. Finally, I posted separately about our students spending the last night at the university building (we have one, no dorm). Here are some pics. 16/ twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
We are ready for another attack. Russians often hit on Monday. That’s tomorrow. Every time damages get worse. No water and heat for days. But people are adapting. You can donate to KSE here. Thank you so much for your support!!!

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More from @Mylovanov

Jan 20
Budanov: China is absorbing Russia.

Russia overpays China for electronics, machine tools, and raw materials.

China takes advantage of this, earns a lot of money, and increases its political influence over Russia.

Russia also shares military technologies with China.

1/
Budanov: Russia is not winning the war. If it was winning or won, we wouldn’t be talking here about it.

Unfortunately, we can’t throw Russia out of negotiations. We have to talk and deal with them.

2/
Budanov: I feel cautiously optimistic about the peace process. We are moving forward.

But much depends on Russia in this matter, whether some people like it or not.

3X
Read 4 tweets
Jan 20
Ukraine’s Minister of Economy Sobolev: Ukraine’s economy is growing — about 2.2% last year. Russia’s is near zero. The trends are splitting fast.

At some point, Putin has to ask if dead lives are worth it. That math pushes the war toward peace.

1/
Sobolev: Even in war, Ukraine’s economy grew about 2.2%. This winter is the hardest in decades and repairs take time, but it’s not collapse.

Winter will pass, consumption will drop, renewables will kick in. This is the darkest moment — but it will get better.

2/
Sobolev: US-EU-Ukraine talks are the furthest ever. Parts of the deal are 100% agreed, some issues remain.

Security, EU accession, and the economy are linked — miss one and the deal fails. The economic framework must work for both the US and EU.

3/
Read 4 tweets
Jan 20
Volker: Peace needs Russia’s consent, and they won’t agree. Even if Moscow accepts terms today, it will demand more tomorrow. There is always more.

Keeping the US, Ukraine, and Europe aligned matters, but it won’t produce peace.

1/
Volker: A peace deal with Russia is unlikely. The real goal is to make the war too costly so Russia can’t continue—leading to a de facto ceasefire.

Talks help keep the US, Ukraine, and Europe aligned on EU accession, security guarantees, deterrence, and Ukraine’s recovery.

2/
Volker: Trump says he wants to own Greenland. By force, that would be unacceptable—to Denmark, Europe, NATO—and could end NATO.

It would hurt the US far more than any gain. The US already can secure Greenland militarily without owning it, and could expand its presence again.

3/
Read 4 tweets
Jan 20
Lavrov: Russia and China have no plans to seize Greenland.

The US is well aware of it.

Even in the West, the threat to Greenland from Russia and China is already being refuted.

1/
Lavrov: Zelenskyy and Europe are hysterically trying to impose the idea of a ceasefire in Ukraine on the US.

We hope that the provisions discussed in Alaska remain in force.

[Peace talks can’t go right when the situation on the battlefield is unstable. Ukraine wants peace]

2/
Lavrov: In Davos, European leaders are again trying to push Trump toward approaches that have already failed and discredited themselves.

They talk about stopping the war and providing security guarantees — but only for what would remain of Ukraine.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Jan 20
Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine’s new Minister of Defense: Our goal is to kill 50,000 Russians per month. Last month, 35,000 were killed — all losses verified on video.

Zelenskyy has set a clear task: to make the cost of war for Russia unbearable — Babel. 1/ Image
Fedorov: We want to change the paradigm that the Ministry of Defense is only about procurement and logistics.

It is about civilian oversight and coordination. Management must be built around those who can achieve goals. If people do not deliver results, they will have to go. 2/
Fedorov: As early as this month, 40k interceptor drones will be delivered to the military. Ukraine will have its own Mavic analogue with a longer range. We opened markets for drones, missiles and launched Brave1 marketplace — now the largest investor in Ukrainian defense tech. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Jan 20
Stubb: Putin has not achieved his strategic goals. We are almost four years into the war. His advancement now — 20% of Ukrainian territory, in the past 1000 days — roughly 1% of territory. It's a war of attrition. I feel fairly comfortable from military perspective. 1/
Stubb: Politically we are in better place. We're on the same page with the Ukrainians, Americans and the Europeans. We're now kind of united in our resolve in trying to find a solution. The big question here is that where's Russia and all of this? I can't give you an answer. 2/
Stubb: Peace agreements are always a compromise. It will then create a new scenario as well. What do you do with 1M Russian soldiers? A lot of them will go to the Finnish border. But of course, peace is what we're all working towards. 3/
Read 5 tweets

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