Good evening. Day 5 after the latest Russian attack on Kyiv. Day 277 of the war. I am president of the Kyiv School of Economics, a former minister of economy of Ukraine, and a professor of economics at the University of Pittsburgh. I left the US for Kyiv 4 days before the war 1/
and stayed there, with some short trips outside of Ukraine for fundraising. Officially, I am on sabbatical leave from Pittsburgh this year. I guess not many people have field sabbaticals, here the field is a war. I left the US because I must lead the Kyiv School of 2/
Economics through the war. I hold a green card and can leave Ukraine at any moment. But I do not want to and will not do it. Now, back to my day. It was busy and I am tired. Shopping, looking and assembling things. In short, preparing for another likely Russian attack tomorrow 3/
We got our super warm winter hiking clothing out. Many people suggested that we can sleep in a tent in our bedroom. So we dug out sleeping bags and went to buy a tent. 4/
The shops were open and it was Black Friday. Everything on sale. But when we were about to pay, the electricity went off. The shop had a battery and continued to run. They used Xmas lights to save electricity instead of their regular ones. It was very cozy. Here is a pic. 5/
Many people suggested that when the electricity and heating go out, we use candles or gas / kerosine heaters to warm the apartment. We decided against it. First, it is not too safe for novices. Second, none are on the market or we could find. So, we drove to 6/
another store to get at least some wood and coal. The plan is to use an simple and small firewood oven that we can set up on our balcony if all else fails. How do you drive when there is no lights in the city, that is, no traffic lights? Traffic police come out! My respect! 7/
We wanted to try the firewood idea, just to practice, when we get home. But we got exhausted bringing all this stuff to the 8th floor. So, we will try it another time. Will post the picture. Yet, my wife wanted some tea anyway. And also she wanted to get hot water 8/
for the morning. She asked me to start the generator so she can use electric tea pot. I did and discovered another problem. The snow on the balcony has melted. And the generator was sliding towards the windows because of vibration. I need a way to fix it in place, but that’s 9/
for tomorrow. Anyway, the water is boiled and stored in thermoses. We have two, one liter each. Perhaps, we should get more. We can probably order them delivered. Here is a pic of a delivery man on a bike 90 mins before the curfew. 10/
That’s a private service. Public services work too. Here is a tractor shoveling snow on a sidewalk. All pictures taken when we were driving back from a mall. 11/ twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
The mall looked normal too except for occasionally blinking light, shortage of products in electrical and heating departments, and occasional assignments by managers to their staff to remember to start generators for the night. There was even a sushi restaurant. A good one. 12/
In the morning, we checked out a center of “nezlamnost”. These are shelters when people can get warm, get some tea, access internet, and power their devices. Here is a Starlinks set up for you :). Very cute! 13/
The center is run by a charity organization “solomenski cats”. Solomenski is the place. Here is their logo. We proposed to them to equip 10 more centers like that and KSE Foundation will match / provide 50% of funding. The rest they should raise themselves 14/
The centers are set up officially at the request / initiative of the president and mayors. There is some funding. For basics. They are set up in hospitals and schools. The problem is that often money is not enough. You should have organizational and procurement capability 15/
This is where we will try to help. Finally, I posted separately about our students spending the last night at the university building (we have one, no dorm). Here are some pics. 16/ twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
We are ready for another attack. Russians often hit on Monday. That’s tomorrow. Every time damages get worse. No water and heat for days. But people are adapting. You can donate to KSE here. Thank you so much for your support!!!
Putin and Zelenskyy are both losing faith in Trump’s peace talks — but for opposite reasons.
Russia believes it can still win militarily. Ukraine believes it no longer has to accept a bad deal under US pressure after stabilizing the front, FT. 1/
Putin is shifting from negotiations back to territorial expansion.
Russian commanders told him they could seize all of Donbas by autumn, after which Moscow plans to raise demands further. 2/
Ukraine says the talks stalled months ago.
“There has been zero progress secured by the American side from Russia,” a Ukrainian official says. Kyiv believes Washington failed to pressure Moscow to moderate demands. 3/
McFaul: Iran has a good reason to think it did not lose.
Trump team declared Epic Fury over without achieving its major goals: no nuclear deal, no missile limits, no end to terror funding, no regime change. 1/
McFaul: If the Americans have already quit, Iran is in a strong negotiating position.
Now the whole discussion is about reopening Hormuz — something that was open before Epic Fury even started. That is perfect for Tehran. 2/
McFaul: Trump never clearly explained why America needed this war.
That makes it almost impossible to explain how he is ending it — especially when none of the goals he used to justify the war are being achieved. 3/
Last night Russia bombed Kyiv for 8 hours and killed 24 people.
Today it forced the city into air raid sirens again. KSE students ran to shelters four times during classes and came back to continue studying each time.
This is what university life in Kyiv looks like now. 1/
On May 14 Russia launched 1,560 drones at Ukraine in 24 hours — one of the largest drone attack since the start of the full-scale war.
Most of them hit Kyiv. Air raid sirens lasted from 00:50 until 8:43 a.m. 2/
Nobody forced students to return to classrooms after a night like that. They came anyway. And nobody will stop them. Not Putin. Not drones or missiles. Not exhaustion.
KSE students keep studying, working, and supporting each other because they refuse to live in survival mode. 3/
His latest nuclear threats is attempt to convince Russians that he still holds cards.
After 4 years of war, much of its Black Sea Fleet damaged, territorial gains limited, so Moscow relies on nuclear rhetoric to project strength. 1/
Kremlin’s latest showpiece is the RS-28 Sarmat, branded “Satan II.”
Putin claims it can strike targets 21,750 miles away and bypass Western missile defenses — but the program suffered repeated delays and failed tests. 2/
Sarmat is liquid-fueled, requiring lengthy launch preparation from fixed silos — a vulnerability against modern precision-strike systems used by NATO countries. 3/
Putin’s system was built specifically to survive rumors of coups, elite dissent, and instability.
Every arrest, defection rumor, mysterious death, or crackdown can itself become a tool to justify even harsher repression and reinforce fear inside Russia, Sean Wiswesser for FA. 1/
Putin did not “learn authoritarianism” after taking power.
He entered the Kremlin as a career KGB officer already trained in surveillance, coercion, elite control, and suppression of dissent from inside Soviet security structures. 2/
His system is layered around overlapping security forces loyal personally to him.
FSB: 350,000-400,000 personnel. Rosgvardia: 300,000. Federal Protective Service: 50,000 protecting Putin, state infrastructure, and continuity of government. 3/
The US-China relationship is a zero-sum contest. Their meetings and negotiations do not change that — even after Xi and Trump’s summit in Beijing on May 14th, writes The Economist. 1/
Xi greeted Trump with a ceremony on Tiananmen Square, talks in the Great Hall of the People and an escorted tour of the Temple of Heaven — the first American president to visit it since 1975. 2/
Trump called Xi a “great leader” and said they would have “a fantastic future together.” The main goal: extend the year-long trade truce agreed in South Korea last October. At their peak, Trump’s tariffs on some Chinese goods reached 145%. 3/