Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Nov 27, 2022 17 tweets 6 min read Read on X
Good evening. Day 5 after the latest Russian attack on Kyiv. Day 277 of the war. I am president of the Kyiv School of Economics, a former minister of economy of Ukraine, and a professor of economics at the University of Pittsburgh. I left the US for Kyiv 4 days before the war 1/ Image
and stayed there, with some short trips outside of Ukraine for fundraising. Officially, I am on sabbatical leave from Pittsburgh this year. I guess not many people have field sabbaticals, here the field is a war. I left the US because I must lead the Kyiv School of 2/
Economics through the war. I hold a green card and can leave Ukraine at any moment. But I do not want to and will not do it. Now, back to my day. It was busy and I am tired. Shopping, looking and assembling things. In short, preparing for another likely Russian attack tomorrow 3/
We got our super warm winter hiking clothing out. Many people suggested that we can sleep in a tent in our bedroom. So we dug out sleeping bags and went to buy a tent. 4/ Image
The shops were open and it was Black Friday. Everything on sale. But when we were about to pay, the electricity went off. The shop had a battery and continued to run. They used Xmas lights to save electricity instead of their regular ones. It was very cozy. Here is a pic. 5/ Image
Many people suggested that when the electricity and heating go out, we use candles or gas / kerosine heaters to warm the apartment. We decided against it. First, it is not too safe for novices. Second, none are on the market or we could find. So, we drove to 6/
another store to get at least some wood and coal. The plan is to use an simple and small firewood oven that we can set up on our balcony if all else fails. How do you drive when there is no lights in the city, that is, no traffic lights? Traffic police come out! My respect! 7/ Image
We wanted to try the firewood idea, just to practice, when we get home. But we got exhausted bringing all this stuff to the 8th floor. So, we will try it another time. Will post the picture. Yet, my wife wanted some tea anyway. And also she wanted to get hot water 8/ Image
for the morning. She asked me to start the generator so she can use electric tea pot. I did and discovered another problem. The snow on the balcony has melted. And the generator was sliding towards the windows because of vibration. I need a way to fix it in place, but that’s 9/
for tomorrow. Anyway, the water is boiled and stored in thermoses. We have two, one liter each. Perhaps, we should get more. We can probably order them delivered. Here is a pic of a delivery man on a bike 90 mins before the curfew. 10/ Image
That’s a private service. Public services work too. Here is a tractor shoveling snow on a sidewalk. All pictures taken when we were driving back from a mall. 11/ twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
The mall looked normal too except for occasionally blinking light, shortage of products in electrical and heating departments, and occasional assignments by managers to their staff to remember to start generators for the night. There was even a sushi restaurant. A good one. 12/ Image
In the morning, we checked out a center of “nezlamnost”. These are shelters when people can get warm, get some tea, access internet, and power their devices. Here is a Starlinks set up for you :). Very cute! 13/ Image
The center is run by a charity organization “solomenski cats”. Solomenski is the place. Here is their logo. We proposed to them to equip 10 more centers like that and KSE Foundation will match / provide 50% of funding. The rest they should raise themselves 14/ Image
The centers are set up officially at the request / initiative of the president and mayors. There is some funding. For basics. They are set up in hospitals and schools. The problem is that often money is not enough. You should have organizational and procurement capability 15/ Image
This is where we will try to help. Finally, I posted separately about our students spending the last night at the university building (we have one, no dorm). Here are some pics. 16/ twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
We are ready for another attack. Russians often hit on Monday. That’s tomorrow. Every time damages get worse. No water and heat for days. But people are adapting. You can donate to KSE here. Thank you so much for your support!!!

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More from @Mylovanov

Mar 26
A potential scenario: US Marines land on Kharg Island under fire, take cover behind Iran’s oil terminals.

This forces Tehran into a brutal choice — destroy its own economy or let the US control 90% of its oil exports, — Financial Times. 1/ Image
Kharg is where 90% of Iran’s oil is loaded.

Seizing it wouldn’t be symbolic. It would mean controlling the country’s main source of revenue. 2/
That turns a military move into economic warfare. The US wouldn’t need to destroy infrastructure — just control it, and squeeze Iran’s income without crashing global oil markets. 3/
Read 12 tweets
Mar 25
In February, Ukraine gained more ground than it lost for first month since 2023, clawing back about 100 square miles in Zaporizhzhia. Now Russia intensifying attacks to retake lost land.

Lt. Col. Gersak: "They are massing and want to push us again" — NYT. 1/ Image
Musk's decision in February to block Russian troops' access to Starlink gave Ukrainian forces brief reprieve from drone assaults and more ease of movement.

This helped Ukraine's counterattack in Zaporizhzhia region. 2/
Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi after visit to front line: "Intensity of offensive operations in Huliaipole area is significantly higher compared with other sectors."

Zelenskyy: Russia also trying to advance in Kharkiv and Sumy regions near Russian border. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Mar 25
For Putin, the war in Iran changed everything.

Rising oil prices, easing US sanctions and Western divisions removed pressure on Moscow — halting any momentum toward negotiations on Ukraine, NYT. 1/ Image
At the start of 2026, Russia’s economy was deteriorating.

Oil sold to India at $22 per barrel, about one-third of market rates. High rates, low reserves and falling revenues pointed to bankruptcies and collapse risks. 2/
Putin began reacting.

In February, he focused on the economy, considered reshuffling negotiators and potentially replacing envoy Dmitriev with Sechin — signaling a shift toward serious talks on Ukraine. 3/
Read 12 tweets
Mar 25
“$300-$500 and a trip abroad.”

Moldovan recruit Maxim Roșca was promised easy money and travel — then sent to camps in Bosnia and Serbia to train in drones, incendiary devices and protest tactics, Politico.

Recruits were told instructions would come from Moscow. 1/ Image
In camps, they learned to fly drones, drop explosives, evade police and organize unrest — part of a Russia-backed network targeting operations across Europe. 2/
Moldovan investigator: “Dozens were trained.”

Prosecutors are probing 80 suspects, 20 indicted. Some linked to operations in France and Germany, including vandalism and election interference cases. 3/
Read 12 tweets
Mar 25
Today I said on CNN:

There’s a 50–60% chance of a ceasefire in Ukraine this year — not soon, but before the US midterms.

If this window closes, the war could last another 1–2 years, with major consequences for Ukraine and Europe.

1/
Me: Russia is using global distraction to Iran to escalate — yesterday’s super major attack hit during the day, when people were at work and in traffic.

We can’t view these wars in isolation — Russia and Iran coordinate on intelligence, technology, and military.

2/
Me: Russia is using drones far more intensively than Iran.

To stop it, the key is cutting supply chains — especially sanctioning electronics and enforcing secondary sanctions on those enabling drone production in Iran and Russia.

3/
Read 5 tweets
Mar 25
Confidential EU discussions could reach Moscow through AfD access to internal files — Politico

German MPs can access a databank containing thousands of EU documents, including internal notes on sensitive negotiations such as plans to fund Ukraine using frozen Russian assets. 1/ Image
The risk is changing how the EU shares information.

Diplomats are limiting what they say in meetings and adjusting discussions, factoring in that sensitive material could be exposed through existing access channels tied to the German system. 2/
At the center is EuDoX.

All MPs and their aides in the Bundestag can access around 25,000 EU documents per year, including “restricted” material such as summaries of confidential ambassador-level meetings where national positions are coordinated. 3/
Read 6 tweets

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