Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Nov 27, 2022 17 tweets 6 min read Read on X
Good evening. Day 5 after the latest Russian attack on Kyiv. Day 277 of the war. I am president of the Kyiv School of Economics, a former minister of economy of Ukraine, and a professor of economics at the University of Pittsburgh. I left the US for Kyiv 4 days before the war 1/ Image
and stayed there, with some short trips outside of Ukraine for fundraising. Officially, I am on sabbatical leave from Pittsburgh this year. I guess not many people have field sabbaticals, here the field is a war. I left the US because I must lead the Kyiv School of 2/
Economics through the war. I hold a green card and can leave Ukraine at any moment. But I do not want to and will not do it. Now, back to my day. It was busy and I am tired. Shopping, looking and assembling things. In short, preparing for another likely Russian attack tomorrow 3/
We got our super warm winter hiking clothing out. Many people suggested that we can sleep in a tent in our bedroom. So we dug out sleeping bags and went to buy a tent. 4/ Image
The shops were open and it was Black Friday. Everything on sale. But when we were about to pay, the electricity went off. The shop had a battery and continued to run. They used Xmas lights to save electricity instead of their regular ones. It was very cozy. Here is a pic. 5/ Image
Many people suggested that when the electricity and heating go out, we use candles or gas / kerosine heaters to warm the apartment. We decided against it. First, it is not too safe for novices. Second, none are on the market or we could find. So, we drove to 6/
another store to get at least some wood and coal. The plan is to use an simple and small firewood oven that we can set up on our balcony if all else fails. How do you drive when there is no lights in the city, that is, no traffic lights? Traffic police come out! My respect! 7/ Image
We wanted to try the firewood idea, just to practice, when we get home. But we got exhausted bringing all this stuff to the 8th floor. So, we will try it another time. Will post the picture. Yet, my wife wanted some tea anyway. And also she wanted to get hot water 8/ Image
for the morning. She asked me to start the generator so she can use electric tea pot. I did and discovered another problem. The snow on the balcony has melted. And the generator was sliding towards the windows because of vibration. I need a way to fix it in place, but that’s 9/
for tomorrow. Anyway, the water is boiled and stored in thermoses. We have two, one liter each. Perhaps, we should get more. We can probably order them delivered. Here is a pic of a delivery man on a bike 90 mins before the curfew. 10/ Image
That’s a private service. Public services work too. Here is a tractor shoveling snow on a sidewalk. All pictures taken when we were driving back from a mall. 11/ twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
The mall looked normal too except for occasionally blinking light, shortage of products in electrical and heating departments, and occasional assignments by managers to their staff to remember to start generators for the night. There was even a sushi restaurant. A good one. 12/ Image
In the morning, we checked out a center of “nezlamnost”. These are shelters when people can get warm, get some tea, access internet, and power their devices. Here is a Starlinks set up for you :). Very cute! 13/ Image
The center is run by a charity organization “solomenski cats”. Solomenski is the place. Here is their logo. We proposed to them to equip 10 more centers like that and KSE Foundation will match / provide 50% of funding. The rest they should raise themselves 14/ Image
The centers are set up officially at the request / initiative of the president and mayors. There is some funding. For basics. They are set up in hospitals and schools. The problem is that often money is not enough. You should have organizational and procurement capability 15/ Image
This is where we will try to help. Finally, I posted separately about our students spending the last night at the university building (we have one, no dorm). Here are some pics. 16/ twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
We are ready for another attack. Russians often hit on Monday. That’s tomorrow. Every time damages get worse. No water and heat for days. But people are adapting. You can donate to KSE here. Thank you so much for your support!!!

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More from @Mylovanov

May 16
Graham: Everything Obama and Biden did was designed to keep Iran to a civilian nuclear program.

There is no way they can have 60% highly enriched uranium unless they cheat. Everything you did failed. You allowed Iran to become a threshold nuclear nation. 1/
Graham: Did Iran shoot missiles at Diego Garcia?

Caine: Yes, sir.

Graham: Under the protocols we had, were they supposed to be able to do that?

Caine: Without reviewing the fine print, I believe the answer is no.

Graham: No, they weren’t. You failed there. 2/
Graham: If Pakistan is allowing Iranian aircraft at its air bases, is that consistent with being a fair mediator?

Hegseth: I wouldn’t want to get in the middle of these negotiations.

Graham: I do want to get in the middle. Maybe we should look for another mediator. 3X
Read 5 tweets
May 16
Blinken: The Iran nuclear deal was not perfect, but it boxed the program in with intrusive inspections and pushed breakout time past a year.

Trump tore it up and replaced it with nothing. Iran went from more than a year to a few weeks. 1/
Blinken: Trump is constrained by two things: markets and munitions. Oil, gas, fertilizer, helium — this has moved from prices to actual availability.

The reserves and ships already on the water are now a very thin shock absorber. 2/
Blinken: Trump may have misread Iran.

The U.S. did enormous damage, but Tehran saw the attacks as existential and started using tools it had held back — especially the Strait of Hormuz. That created a new normal. 3/
Read 6 tweets
May 16
Cheap flights are ending. Spirit Airlines collapsed this month. Wizz Air short positions hit one-sixth of its shares.

Jet fuel doubled after the Iran war shut the Strait of Hormuz, nearly 40% of Europe's kerosene — Peter Campbell, Financial Times. 1/ Image
Andrew Lobbenberg, airlines analyst at Barclays: "We have seen lots of crises — 9/11, Covid. This is the next Covid."

He predicts bankruptcies, mergers, and faster retirement of old aircraft. 2/
Lufthansa cut 20,000 summer flights. It now routes Cape Town flights via Namibia to refuel.

Malaysia's AirAsia flew tankers to Vietnam so its jets could refuel before returning to Kuala Lumpur. 3/
Read 10 tweets
May 16
Ukraine's FP-1/2 long-range drone now flies into Crimea carrying two FPV drones strapped to its wings.

One FPV is fitted with a flat antenna that matches a compact Starlink terminal — United24. 1/
Russian sources filmed the downed mothership in a bay near occupied Crimea. The wings still held two attached FPV drones.

Analysts identified the antenna on one of them as Starlink-grade. 2/
A Starlink link means the FPV does not depend on the mothership as a radio relay.

It can be dropped over the target and flown directly through satellite, while the FP-1/2 keeps going to its own warhead mission. 3/
Read 9 tweets
May 16
Bolton: Leaving the Strait of Hormuz in Iran’s hands is unacceptable. It is an international waterway.

Iran cannot be allowed to impose hegemony over it — and the only way to stop that is militarily. 1/
Bolton: If Iran can turn control of Hormuz on and off like a light switch without paying a price, it will do it again.

Opening the strait militarily would remove Iran’s leverage and restore deterrence. 2/
Bolton: Iran’s military-industrial complex is severely damaged. The question is whether to finish the job.

If this regime survives, it rebuilds itself — and in five years America may be right back where it started. 3X
Read 5 tweets
May 16
Putin and Zelenskyy are both losing faith in Trump’s peace talks — but for opposite reasons.

Russia believes it can still win militarily. Ukraine believes it no longer has to accept a bad deal under US pressure after stabilizing the front, FT. 1/ Image
Putin is shifting from negotiations back to territorial expansion.

Russian commanders told him they could seize all of Donbas by autumn, after which Moscow plans to raise demands further. 2/
Ukraine says the talks stalled months ago.

“There has been zero progress secured by the American side from Russia,” a Ukrainian official says. Kyiv believes Washington failed to pressure Moscow to moderate demands. 3/
Read 7 tweets

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