Good evening. Day 5 after the latest Russian attack on Kyiv. Day 277 of the war. I am president of the Kyiv School of Economics, a former minister of economy of Ukraine, and a professor of economics at the University of Pittsburgh. I left the US for Kyiv 4 days before the war 1/
and stayed there, with some short trips outside of Ukraine for fundraising. Officially, I am on sabbatical leave from Pittsburgh this year. I guess not many people have field sabbaticals, here the field is a war. I left the US because I must lead the Kyiv School of 2/
Economics through the war. I hold a green card and can leave Ukraine at any moment. But I do not want to and will not do it. Now, back to my day. It was busy and I am tired. Shopping, looking and assembling things. In short, preparing for another likely Russian attack tomorrow 3/
We got our super warm winter hiking clothing out. Many people suggested that we can sleep in a tent in our bedroom. So we dug out sleeping bags and went to buy a tent. 4/
The shops were open and it was Black Friday. Everything on sale. But when we were about to pay, the electricity went off. The shop had a battery and continued to run. They used Xmas lights to save electricity instead of their regular ones. It was very cozy. Here is a pic. 5/
Many people suggested that when the electricity and heating go out, we use candles or gas / kerosine heaters to warm the apartment. We decided against it. First, it is not too safe for novices. Second, none are on the market or we could find. So, we drove to 6/
another store to get at least some wood and coal. The plan is to use an simple and small firewood oven that we can set up on our balcony if all else fails. How do you drive when there is no lights in the city, that is, no traffic lights? Traffic police come out! My respect! 7/
We wanted to try the firewood idea, just to practice, when we get home. But we got exhausted bringing all this stuff to the 8th floor. So, we will try it another time. Will post the picture. Yet, my wife wanted some tea anyway. And also she wanted to get hot water 8/
for the morning. She asked me to start the generator so she can use electric tea pot. I did and discovered another problem. The snow on the balcony has melted. And the generator was sliding towards the windows because of vibration. I need a way to fix it in place, but that’s 9/
for tomorrow. Anyway, the water is boiled and stored in thermoses. We have two, one liter each. Perhaps, we should get more. We can probably order them delivered. Here is a pic of a delivery man on a bike 90 mins before the curfew. 10/
That’s a private service. Public services work too. Here is a tractor shoveling snow on a sidewalk. All pictures taken when we were driving back from a mall. 11/ twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
The mall looked normal too except for occasionally blinking light, shortage of products in electrical and heating departments, and occasional assignments by managers to their staff to remember to start generators for the night. There was even a sushi restaurant. A good one. 12/
In the morning, we checked out a center of “nezlamnost”. These are shelters when people can get warm, get some tea, access internet, and power their devices. Here is a Starlinks set up for you :). Very cute! 13/
The center is run by a charity organization “solomenski cats”. Solomenski is the place. Here is their logo. We proposed to them to equip 10 more centers like that and KSE Foundation will match / provide 50% of funding. The rest they should raise themselves 14/
The centers are set up officially at the request / initiative of the president and mayors. There is some funding. For basics. They are set up in hospitals and schools. The problem is that often money is not enough. You should have organizational and procurement capability 15/
This is where we will try to help. Finally, I posted separately about our students spending the last night at the university building (we have one, no dorm). Here are some pics. 16/ twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
We are ready for another attack. Russians often hit on Monday. That’s tomorrow. Every time damages get worse. No water and heat for days. But people are adapting. You can donate to KSE here. Thank you so much for your support!!!
Ukraine is playing by its own rules in the US game. The US asked Kyiv to stop striking Russian energy facilities. On April 5 Ukrainian drones hit a Lukoil refinery near St Petersburg anyway, writes The Telegraph. 1/
A 30-drone barrage hit the Lukoil-Nizhegorodnefteorgsintez refinery in Kstovo, Nizhny Novgorod region — 250 miles east of Moscow. Two facilities were damaged. Photographs showed large flames and explosions lighting up the night sky. 2/
A separate strike damaged a Baltic oil pipeline near the port of Primorsk, between the Finnish border and St Petersburg. 3/
Kellogg: During the nuclear negotiations, I used to say: trust, verify. That is what we need now.
I would caution Iran against dragging this out with back-and-forth games. Trump means what he says, and over the next two weeks they need to take that seriously. 1/
Kellogg: Look at Trump’s record. He struck the sites Assad used for nerve gas, moved the embassy to Jerusalem, walked away from the JCPOA and killed Soleimani.
The Iranians know this is a president who means what he says. He will deliver. 2/
Kellogg: The goal is clear: keep the Strait of Hormuz open and make sure Iran never becomes a nuclear power.
They enriched far above the limit and moved toward weapons grade. This time we have to watch closely, go in on the ground and verify what is happening. 3/
Trump's land-for-security-guarantees formula for Ukraine has stalled. Russia won't stop at the Donbas. It wants to block Ukraine from Western weapons.
Ukraine won't surrender the "fortress belt" and become more exposed — Samuel Charap and Jennifer Kavanagh, Foreign Affairs.
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Negotiations have proceeded on separate tracks. US-Ukraine, US-Russia, Europe-Ukraine.
No meeting has included Russia, Ukraine, the US and Europe together. This creates misunderstandings and makes it impossible to identify terms all parties accept.
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The security guarantees under discussion could actually backfire. A "coalition of the willing" led by France and the UK would deploy troops to Ukraine after a ceasefire — exactly what Russia fears most. More land for Russia, but NATO boots still on Ukrainian soil.
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Lesson for Ukraine from Ray Dalio: We must be strong and ready to endure Russia’s pressure.
Dalio: No country enforces global rules — conflicts spread. Wars are decided by endurance. The US is strongest, but with 750+ bases it’s overstretched — and Iran war is testing that.
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Dalio defines today’s wars as one system: Russia–Ukraine–US–Europe, Israel–Gaza–Iran, and Yemen–Sudan conflicts run at the same time. Nuclear states sit inside these wars, and trade, tech, and capital fights connect them.
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Markets expect a short war and a return to normal. Dalio rejects that view. He says the world has entered an early-stage world war that will last years, not weeks.
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Keane: I do not trust the Iranians at all. Trump does not trust them either. He knows they are liars and cheaters.
My preference would have been to keep the war going as leverage. A ceasefire takes pressure off them, and that is exactly what they wanted from the start. 1/
Keane: The deal has to take away everything military force took from Iran. Number one is nuclear enrichment.
That was the issue at the start. We will know quickly if Tehran is serious when we get to the fine points of the deal, the verification, and the concessions they make. 2/
Keane: If this blows up, we have to finish what we started. It comes down to Kharg Island: take control of it and its oil, or destroy it and force economic collapse.
That is the leverage to bend Iran to our will, and in my view it puts the regime on a path to collapse. 3X
Tucker: Easter morning should have been about resurrection, peace, and victory over death.
Instead Trump threatened power plants and bridges in Iran. Civilian infrastructure, blackouts, refugees and dead noncombatants — including over a million Christians who live in Iran. 1/
Tucker: Millions of Christians backed Trump not because he was pious, but because he looked like a protector — of religious liberty, of Christians, of the unborn.
I think the first moment they should have stopped and asked what this really was came on Jan. 4, over Venezuela. 2/
Tucker: The problem was not that Maduro was anti-American. The problem was the motive Trump gave us: we did it for the oil.
That crossed a line for me. If a country says it can take what it wants by force, it is not defending order. It is legalizing theft at scale. 3X