Good evening. Day 5 after the latest Russian attack on Kyiv. Day 277 of the war. I am president of the Kyiv School of Economics, a former minister of economy of Ukraine, and a professor of economics at the University of Pittsburgh. I left the US for Kyiv 4 days before the war 1/
and stayed there, with some short trips outside of Ukraine for fundraising. Officially, I am on sabbatical leave from Pittsburgh this year. I guess not many people have field sabbaticals, here the field is a war. I left the US because I must lead the Kyiv School of 2/
Economics through the war. I hold a green card and can leave Ukraine at any moment. But I do not want to and will not do it. Now, back to my day. It was busy and I am tired. Shopping, looking and assembling things. In short, preparing for another likely Russian attack tomorrow 3/
We got our super warm winter hiking clothing out. Many people suggested that we can sleep in a tent in our bedroom. So we dug out sleeping bags and went to buy a tent. 4/
The shops were open and it was Black Friday. Everything on sale. But when we were about to pay, the electricity went off. The shop had a battery and continued to run. They used Xmas lights to save electricity instead of their regular ones. It was very cozy. Here is a pic. 5/
Many people suggested that when the electricity and heating go out, we use candles or gas / kerosine heaters to warm the apartment. We decided against it. First, it is not too safe for novices. Second, none are on the market or we could find. So, we drove to 6/
another store to get at least some wood and coal. The plan is to use an simple and small firewood oven that we can set up on our balcony if all else fails. How do you drive when there is no lights in the city, that is, no traffic lights? Traffic police come out! My respect! 7/
We wanted to try the firewood idea, just to practice, when we get home. But we got exhausted bringing all this stuff to the 8th floor. So, we will try it another time. Will post the picture. Yet, my wife wanted some tea anyway. And also she wanted to get hot water 8/
for the morning. She asked me to start the generator so she can use electric tea pot. I did and discovered another problem. The snow on the balcony has melted. And the generator was sliding towards the windows because of vibration. I need a way to fix it in place, but that’s 9/
for tomorrow. Anyway, the water is boiled and stored in thermoses. We have two, one liter each. Perhaps, we should get more. We can probably order them delivered. Here is a pic of a delivery man on a bike 90 mins before the curfew. 10/
That’s a private service. Public services work too. Here is a tractor shoveling snow on a sidewalk. All pictures taken when we were driving back from a mall. 11/ twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
The mall looked normal too except for occasionally blinking light, shortage of products in electrical and heating departments, and occasional assignments by managers to their staff to remember to start generators for the night. There was even a sushi restaurant. A good one. 12/
In the morning, we checked out a center of “nezlamnost”. These are shelters when people can get warm, get some tea, access internet, and power their devices. Here is a Starlinks set up for you :). Very cute! 13/
The center is run by a charity organization “solomenski cats”. Solomenski is the place. Here is their logo. We proposed to them to equip 10 more centers like that and KSE Foundation will match / provide 50% of funding. The rest they should raise themselves 14/
The centers are set up officially at the request / initiative of the president and mayors. There is some funding. For basics. They are set up in hospitals and schools. The problem is that often money is not enough. You should have organizational and procurement capability 15/
This is where we will try to help. Finally, I posted separately about our students spending the last night at the university building (we have one, no dorm). Here are some pics. 16/ twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
We are ready for another attack. Russians often hit on Monday. That’s tomorrow. Every time damages get worse. No water and heat for days. But people are adapting. You can donate to KSE here. Thank you so much for your support!!!
Applebaum: 90–95% of Ukraine's weapons are now either made in Europe or made in Ukraine. Ukrainians make most of their own drones — around 4 million last year and 7 million this year, maybe more.
They're becoming more and more self-sufficient in what they can produce. 1/
Applebaum: There's now a 20 km wide zone on the front line fully controlled by drones. Ukrainians can see every Russian person, tank, or vehicle that enters it.
Crossing is nearly impossible. That has effectively frozen the front — Russia is no longer able to move forward. 2/
Applebaum: Ukraine will soon be able to export its drone and defense technology. Right after the Iran conflict broke out, Zelenskyy was in the Middle East talking to Gulf state leaders.
Gulf states are sovereign countries — they can talk to whoever they want to talk to. 3X
Prof. Michael Clarke: This [US-Iran deal] is not a peace deal. It is an exchange of memoranda, basically an agreement to keep talking for 60 days under a ceasefire.
Trump is selling it as a breakthrough, but it is only a pathway toward a possible deal. 1/
Clarke: Iran may not sign on Trump’s timetable. Tehran has every reason to delay, embarrass him, and show it is not playing to his agenda.
Iran has a long memory for humiliating U.S. presidents through timing. 2/
Clarke: The hard issues are still unresolved: Hormuz, enriched uranium, nuclear limits, frozen assets, sanctions relief and Lebanon.
The key fight will be sequencing — what Iran gives first, and what it gets in return. 3/
Rutte: Ukraine is killing or seriously wounding 30,000–35,000 Russians a month. The front line is stable, Russian advances halted.
Russia has growing problems refilling the gaps in its armed forces, not just to advance, but to maintain the fight in Ukraine. 1/
Rutte: These numbers are staggering. 30,000–35,000 a month means Russia loses in 3 weeks what it lost in Afghanistan in 10 years in the 1980s.
In 5 weeks, Russia loses what America lost in Vietnam in 15 years. That's what Ukraine is inflicting on Russia's military right now. 2/
Rutte: We all want this war done. Zelenskyy is willing to tango — willing to get to the negotiating table.
But you need two to tango. And Vladimir Putin so far is not. Ukraine didn't ask for this war — they have to defend themselves, and they are extremely successful at it. 3X
Russia may have lost more than 70% of its combat-ready Tu-22M3 bombers since 2022.
Around 33–34 were combat-ready before the full-scale invasion. Today, only 9–10 may remain operational.
Operation Spiderweb destroyed 12 Tu-22M3 in June 2025. — U24.
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Operation Spiderweb destroyed 12 Tu-22M3 bombers at Olenya, Belaya and Dyagilevo airbases in June 2025.
Three more crashed in the Irkutsk region alone — in 2024, 2025, and now June 2026. In total, Russia may have lost or had damaged 24 of these bombers since 2022.
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Russia stopped producing the Tu-22 in any variant in 1993. No replacement program exists.
The spare parts base is so limited that even minor damage can lead to an aircraft being written off or cannibalized for parts.
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Timothy Snyder: The memory war is far more comfortable for Polish politicians than the real one.
They get to say: we're right, we're innocent. I know the history. But you start with what's happening now, not memory. Skip that, and you start from a falsehood.
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Snyder: Treat Ukrainians as partners and allies — even when they make mistakes.
Remember that every day they lose people in this war, partly so that Poland can keep living normally.
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Snyder: Judging Zelenskyy's decision to name a unit after UPA without the context of nearly four and a half years of war would be a mistake.
This is the longest war of this century, longer than World War I — it stirs emotions the West struggles to understand.
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