Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Nov 27, 2022 17 tweets 6 min read Read on X
Good evening. Day 5 after the latest Russian attack on Kyiv. Day 277 of the war. I am president of the Kyiv School of Economics, a former minister of economy of Ukraine, and a professor of economics at the University of Pittsburgh. I left the US for Kyiv 4 days before the war 1/ Image
and stayed there, with some short trips outside of Ukraine for fundraising. Officially, I am on sabbatical leave from Pittsburgh this year. I guess not many people have field sabbaticals, here the field is a war. I left the US because I must lead the Kyiv School of 2/
Economics through the war. I hold a green card and can leave Ukraine at any moment. But I do not want to and will not do it. Now, back to my day. It was busy and I am tired. Shopping, looking and assembling things. In short, preparing for another likely Russian attack tomorrow 3/
We got our super warm winter hiking clothing out. Many people suggested that we can sleep in a tent in our bedroom. So we dug out sleeping bags and went to buy a tent. 4/ Image
The shops were open and it was Black Friday. Everything on sale. But when we were about to pay, the electricity went off. The shop had a battery and continued to run. They used Xmas lights to save electricity instead of their regular ones. It was very cozy. Here is a pic. 5/ Image
Many people suggested that when the electricity and heating go out, we use candles or gas / kerosine heaters to warm the apartment. We decided against it. First, it is not too safe for novices. Second, none are on the market or we could find. So, we drove to 6/
another store to get at least some wood and coal. The plan is to use an simple and small firewood oven that we can set up on our balcony if all else fails. How do you drive when there is no lights in the city, that is, no traffic lights? Traffic police come out! My respect! 7/ Image
We wanted to try the firewood idea, just to practice, when we get home. But we got exhausted bringing all this stuff to the 8th floor. So, we will try it another time. Will post the picture. Yet, my wife wanted some tea anyway. And also she wanted to get hot water 8/ Image
for the morning. She asked me to start the generator so she can use electric tea pot. I did and discovered another problem. The snow on the balcony has melted. And the generator was sliding towards the windows because of vibration. I need a way to fix it in place, but that’s 9/
for tomorrow. Anyway, the water is boiled and stored in thermoses. We have two, one liter each. Perhaps, we should get more. We can probably order them delivered. Here is a pic of a delivery man on a bike 90 mins before the curfew. 10/ Image
That’s a private service. Public services work too. Here is a tractor shoveling snow on a sidewalk. All pictures taken when we were driving back from a mall. 11/ twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
The mall looked normal too except for occasionally blinking light, shortage of products in electrical and heating departments, and occasional assignments by managers to their staff to remember to start generators for the night. There was even a sushi restaurant. A good one. 12/ Image
In the morning, we checked out a center of “nezlamnost”. These are shelters when people can get warm, get some tea, access internet, and power their devices. Here is a Starlinks set up for you :). Very cute! 13/ Image
The center is run by a charity organization “solomenski cats”. Solomenski is the place. Here is their logo. We proposed to them to equip 10 more centers like that and KSE Foundation will match / provide 50% of funding. The rest they should raise themselves 14/ Image
The centers are set up officially at the request / initiative of the president and mayors. There is some funding. For basics. They are set up in hospitals and schools. The problem is that often money is not enough. You should have organizational and procurement capability 15/ Image
This is where we will try to help. Finally, I posted separately about our students spending the last night at the university building (we have one, no dorm). Here are some pics. 16/ twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
We are ready for another attack. Russians often hit on Monday. That’s tomorrow. Every time damages get worse. No water and heat for days. But people are adapting. You can donate to KSE here. Thank you so much for your support!!!

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More from @Mylovanov

Jun 30
Historian, James Holland: Ukraine can now isolate the battlefield. Anyone that moves gets killed. Supply lines attacked 25-50 miles behind the front — bridges, roads, assembly areas. Deep strikes into Russia's oil.

Putin can have a media blackout. He cannot hide that destruction. 1/
Holland on Crimea: Right now I can't see what will prevent Ukraine from regaining it. They're isolating Crimea — effectively besieged. Russians will have to give it up.

Putin's myth that Crimea has been "forever Russia" is nonsense. It's been Turkish too. It keeps changing hands. 2/
Holland: Putin is fatally wounded by what's happening in Ukraine. That battle is going to be lost for him. But that makes him very dangerous, he might do something to distract from failure.

A village grab in Estonia or Lithuania testing Article 5. Or cutting North Sea cables. 3X
Read 5 tweets
Jun 30
Bolton: Iran and North Korea got the same Chinese nuclear weapon designs from A.Q. Khan. Same enrichment technology. Both programs share the same basis from the very beginning.

North Korea built a reactor clone in Syria's desert for Iran. Israel found and destroyed it in 2007 1/
Bolton: Iran is oil-rich and has no nuclear weapons. North Korea is one of the poorest countries on earth — it has detonated six nuclear devices.

How hard is it to imagine Iran contracts out its nuclear work to North Korea, under some mountain we can't see through? 2/
Bolton on the Strait of Hormuz: If Iran is not stopped now, they will turn access to the strait on and off like a light switch for as far as the eye can see.

Freedom of the seas has been a cornerstone of US foreign policy since before we were a country. This is unacceptable. 3X
Read 5 tweets
Jun 30
Estonian PM Michal: Russia has more men under arms now than at the start of the war. What happens when fighting stops?

They won't become teachers. They'll go to Europe, Asia, Africa. We had Wagner before and during the war. Do you want these people at home, in your country? 1/
Michal: If anyone thinks investing 5% of GDP in defense is easy, it's not. Takes a heavy toll on any government. But it has to be done.

Estonia is at 5.4% this year. Poland 5 to 6%. Latvia, Lithuania the same. We're showing that this is real money, real decisions, real steps. 2/
Michal: Europe used to think Russians were romantic people having tea from the samovar in furry hats, loving children.

Now they're killing their own and Ukrainians — civilians, women, children. Most European countries don't have this romantic attitude towards Russia anymore. 3X
Read 5 tweets
Jun 29
Ex-US Ambassador to Ukraine, Taylor: While we weren't looking, Ukraine took the initiative. Taking more land back than Russia takes. More deep strikes into Russia than Russia fires into Ukraine.

Killing more Russians than Russia can recruit. That's the momentum shift. 1/
Taylor: Ukraine has cut off fuel and ammunition for the Russian military in Crimea. They're threatening the last connection — the Kerch Bridge — which Ukrainian drones can now take out.

They are the masters of the drones. And Crimea is being squeezed from every direction. 2/
Taylor: In 2014 when Russia first invaded, 97% of Ukraine's weapons came from abroad. They manufactured 3%. Today 70-80% of weapons on the battlefield are made in Ukraine.

Soviet heavy industry, including the missile industry, was in Ukraine. They draw on that expertise now. 3X
Read 5 tweets
Jun 29
Hodges: Momentum has indisputably shifted to Ukraine. Ukrainians strike over 1,000 km deep with precision, bypassing Russian air defenses. Russians don't seem able to stop it.

In a country with more oil and gas than almost anyone on the planet — queues at gas stations. 1/
Hodges: Three effects. First — Russian people realize they've been lied to. Ukrainians are fighting ferociously and successfully. Russia's military has been stopped. Tourists in Crimea asking "what the hell's going on?"

That well of resilience is going to run dry. 2/
Hodges: Second — convoys can't move. Bridges into Crimea wrecked. Facilities on the peninsula destroyed. Crimea becoming untenable — not just for tourists, for the military.

Third — oil and gas exports to China, India dramatically reduced. Can't sustain the war economy. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Jun 29
Ex-Ukrainian FM Prystaiko: Putin’s signal to his own people is: do not corner me, because I am dangerous and unpredictable.

But this signal is wearing out. Drones in Moscow and St. Petersburg show that the king is not dressed as well as he wants people to think.

1/
Prystaiko: From Poland’s point of view, Ukraine escalated. The problem is old; it is not about today’s Ukrainians or today’s government.

But Poland is strategically vital for our survival, and we still have not found a way to manage these risks and exit such crises.

2/
Prystaiko: Poland does not want radical escalation now. But if anti-Ukrainian moods help Nawrocki solve domestic problems and gain popularity, Poland may go another round.

Ukraine’s EU accession is not Poland’s priority; protecting its own market is.

3/
Read 18 tweets

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