Good evening. Day 5 after the latest Russian attack on Kyiv. Day 277 of the war. I am president of the Kyiv School of Economics, a former minister of economy of Ukraine, and a professor of economics at the University of Pittsburgh. I left the US for Kyiv 4 days before the war 1/
and stayed there, with some short trips outside of Ukraine for fundraising. Officially, I am on sabbatical leave from Pittsburgh this year. I guess not many people have field sabbaticals, here the field is a war. I left the US because I must lead the Kyiv School of 2/
Economics through the war. I hold a green card and can leave Ukraine at any moment. But I do not want to and will not do it. Now, back to my day. It was busy and I am tired. Shopping, looking and assembling things. In short, preparing for another likely Russian attack tomorrow 3/
We got our super warm winter hiking clothing out. Many people suggested that we can sleep in a tent in our bedroom. So we dug out sleeping bags and went to buy a tent. 4/
The shops were open and it was Black Friday. Everything on sale. But when we were about to pay, the electricity went off. The shop had a battery and continued to run. They used Xmas lights to save electricity instead of their regular ones. It was very cozy. Here is a pic. 5/
Many people suggested that when the electricity and heating go out, we use candles or gas / kerosine heaters to warm the apartment. We decided against it. First, it is not too safe for novices. Second, none are on the market or we could find. So, we drove to 6/
another store to get at least some wood and coal. The plan is to use an simple and small firewood oven that we can set up on our balcony if all else fails. How do you drive when there is no lights in the city, that is, no traffic lights? Traffic police come out! My respect! 7/
We wanted to try the firewood idea, just to practice, when we get home. But we got exhausted bringing all this stuff to the 8th floor. So, we will try it another time. Will post the picture. Yet, my wife wanted some tea anyway. And also she wanted to get hot water 8/
for the morning. She asked me to start the generator so she can use electric tea pot. I did and discovered another problem. The snow on the balcony has melted. And the generator was sliding towards the windows because of vibration. I need a way to fix it in place, but that’s 9/
for tomorrow. Anyway, the water is boiled and stored in thermoses. We have two, one liter each. Perhaps, we should get more. We can probably order them delivered. Here is a pic of a delivery man on a bike 90 mins before the curfew. 10/
That’s a private service. Public services work too. Here is a tractor shoveling snow on a sidewalk. All pictures taken when we were driving back from a mall. 11/ twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
The mall looked normal too except for occasionally blinking light, shortage of products in electrical and heating departments, and occasional assignments by managers to their staff to remember to start generators for the night. There was even a sushi restaurant. A good one. 12/
In the morning, we checked out a center of “nezlamnost”. These are shelters when people can get warm, get some tea, access internet, and power their devices. Here is a Starlinks set up for you :). Very cute! 13/
The center is run by a charity organization “solomenski cats”. Solomenski is the place. Here is their logo. We proposed to them to equip 10 more centers like that and KSE Foundation will match / provide 50% of funding. The rest they should raise themselves 14/
The centers are set up officially at the request / initiative of the president and mayors. There is some funding. For basics. They are set up in hospitals and schools. The problem is that often money is not enough. You should have organizational and procurement capability 15/
This is where we will try to help. Finally, I posted separately about our students spending the last night at the university building (we have one, no dorm). Here are some pics. 16/ twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
We are ready for another attack. Russians often hit on Monday. That’s tomorrow. Every time damages get worse. No water and heat for days. But people are adapting. You can donate to KSE here. Thank you so much for your support!!!
Kasparov: If Russia crosses into Estonia or Finland — NATO formally needs Article 5, Brussels, the American general reports to Washington.
The question is: will Trump not be playing golf at that moment?
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Kasparov: I see zero signs that Russia is ready for any negotiation process — not in propaganda, not in the economy, not in statements from Putin, Lavrov or Peskov.
Maybe I missed something. But so far we see exactly the opposite vector.
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Kasparov: NATO as we knew it no longer exists. The infrastructure remains, the internal ties remain, but it will all work differently now.
For the first time since the Cold War, NATO faces a real threat of military confrontation with Russia. And in fact, it is already happening.
Queues stretch up to nine miles beyond Crimea's checkpoints. 79% of hotel bookings cancelled. Fuel sold on Telegram at $25 a gallon. Blackouts last for days. Water available one hour a day.
Putin's "sacred" peninsula has become a burden. — The Telegraph.
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Ukraine struck 50 energy facilities in Crimea between July 1–8. Hit 76 shadow-fleet tankers in the Sea of Azov this week. Long-range strikes jumped 1,150% in 2026.
Six choke-point bridges under attack. Russian authorities suspended all fuel sales to private individuals.
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Fedorov: "In the near future, Crimea will become an island. For the Russians, the real hell is just beginning."
The fuel crunch has spread to at least 78 of Russia's 83 federal regions. Police and National Guard deployed to petrol stations to prevent confrontations.
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Browder: Trump is both U.S. president and a businessman.
It wouldn't be a leap to say Putin could have made lucrative business offers in exchange for less support for Ukraine. I don't see a better theory for what's happening.
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Browder: The U.S. told Gulf allies not to buy Ukrainian drone technology.
I have heard this from sources I trust, and I believe Trump did not want Ukraine to benefit. Europe should instead invest in Ukrainian defense technology through joint ventures and production.
Browder: Ukraine has damaged 25–40% of Russia’s oil refining capacity.
If it doubles that, it can tell Russia: stop bombing our civilians, and we stop hitting your refineries. Ukraine has also turned the front line into a drone kill zone where crossing is deadly.
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Browder: We should not underestimate Russia.
It still has a much larger population, deeper financial resources, and bigger ammunition stockpiles than Ukraine.
Even if Russian forces in Crimea collapse, Ukraine may still lack the troops needed to retake it.
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Browder: Most people follow the crowd. They do not act until disaster hits.
America stayed out of World War II until Pearl Harbor. Nobody redesigns a faulty aircraft until after it crashes. That is where we are today.
For the first time since 2022, Ukraine has a coherent theory of victory. Instead of grinding down the Russian army at huge cost, Kyiv now destroys Russia's capacity to wage war.
It targets the revenue, fuel, and the supply lines that feed the front — Christian Caryl, FP. 1/
Former DM Zagorodnyuk calls this strategic neutralization. Render Russian forces ineffective by cutting their support, rather than storming their positions.
The proof of concept is the Black Sea Fleet. Naval drones drove it from Sevastopol without a single Ukrainian warship. 2/
The same logic now targets Crimea. Ukraine is severing the supply lines that feed Russian troops there with ammunition, fuel, and food, rather than storming the peninsula.
Serhii, a battalion commander in Sloviansk: I think we can cut Crimea off by the end of the summer. 3/
Browder: Putin started a war because he stole so much money that he became afraid of his own people.
The easiest way to stop people turning against you is to create a foreign enemy. That is Machiavelli 101. 1/
Browder: If Putin used a nuclear weapon, he still would not win the war.
Ukraine is too large and too dispersed. China and the Global South would step away, and Putin would become a fully defined war criminal. 2/
Browder: This war is more likely to end like Korea than with a peace agreement.
Ukraine will keep making the war more painful for Russia until both sides stop attacking each other across a fortified front line. Nobody will negotiate peace. 3X