Good evening. Day 5 after the latest Russian attack on Kyiv. Day 277 of the war. I am president of the Kyiv School of Economics, a former minister of economy of Ukraine, and a professor of economics at the University of Pittsburgh. I left the US for Kyiv 4 days before the war 1/
and stayed there, with some short trips outside of Ukraine for fundraising. Officially, I am on sabbatical leave from Pittsburgh this year. I guess not many people have field sabbaticals, here the field is a war. I left the US because I must lead the Kyiv School of 2/
Economics through the war. I hold a green card and can leave Ukraine at any moment. But I do not want to and will not do it. Now, back to my day. It was busy and I am tired. Shopping, looking and assembling things. In short, preparing for another likely Russian attack tomorrow 3/
We got our super warm winter hiking clothing out. Many people suggested that we can sleep in a tent in our bedroom. So we dug out sleeping bags and went to buy a tent. 4/
The shops were open and it was Black Friday. Everything on sale. But when we were about to pay, the electricity went off. The shop had a battery and continued to run. They used Xmas lights to save electricity instead of their regular ones. It was very cozy. Here is a pic. 5/
Many people suggested that when the electricity and heating go out, we use candles or gas / kerosine heaters to warm the apartment. We decided against it. First, it is not too safe for novices. Second, none are on the market or we could find. So, we drove to 6/
another store to get at least some wood and coal. The plan is to use an simple and small firewood oven that we can set up on our balcony if all else fails. How do you drive when there is no lights in the city, that is, no traffic lights? Traffic police come out! My respect! 7/
We wanted to try the firewood idea, just to practice, when we get home. But we got exhausted bringing all this stuff to the 8th floor. So, we will try it another time. Will post the picture. Yet, my wife wanted some tea anyway. And also she wanted to get hot water 8/
for the morning. She asked me to start the generator so she can use electric tea pot. I did and discovered another problem. The snow on the balcony has melted. And the generator was sliding towards the windows because of vibration. I need a way to fix it in place, but that’s 9/
for tomorrow. Anyway, the water is boiled and stored in thermoses. We have two, one liter each. Perhaps, we should get more. We can probably order them delivered. Here is a pic of a delivery man on a bike 90 mins before the curfew. 10/
That’s a private service. Public services work too. Here is a tractor shoveling snow on a sidewalk. All pictures taken when we were driving back from a mall. 11/ twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
The mall looked normal too except for occasionally blinking light, shortage of products in electrical and heating departments, and occasional assignments by managers to their staff to remember to start generators for the night. There was even a sushi restaurant. A good one. 12/
In the morning, we checked out a center of “nezlamnost”. These are shelters when people can get warm, get some tea, access internet, and power their devices. Here is a Starlinks set up for you :). Very cute! 13/
The center is run by a charity organization “solomenski cats”. Solomenski is the place. Here is their logo. We proposed to them to equip 10 more centers like that and KSE Foundation will match / provide 50% of funding. The rest they should raise themselves 14/
The centers are set up officially at the request / initiative of the president and mayors. There is some funding. For basics. They are set up in hospitals and schools. The problem is that often money is not enough. You should have organizational and procurement capability 15/
This is where we will try to help. Finally, I posted separately about our students spending the last night at the university building (we have one, no dorm). Here are some pics. 16/ twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
We are ready for another attack. Russians often hit on Monday. That’s tomorrow. Every time damages get worse. No water and heat for days. But people are adapting. You can donate to KSE here. Thank you so much for your support!!!
At the end of Ukraine conflict, we'll have a very big Russia problem
Russia will be reconstituting its force on NATO borders, led by the same people, convinced we're the adversary, and very angry. Putin taking on Baltic republics might be a gamble he's willing to take, Times 1/
Russia maintains the world's biggest nuclear stockpile: ~5,000 warheads on 324 ballistic missiles, 71 bombers, and 12 missile launching submarines.
Much of its arsenal, including strategic weapons, has not been damaged in Ukraine. 2/
Russia produces more than 200 Shahed drones a day.
If there was a ceasefire with Ukraine and production continued at the same rate, they would soon have stockpiled thousands for possible use against NATO countries. Russia's arms industry is running hot. 3/
Kasparov: Europeans’ dominant thought has been that somehow war in Ukraine will end: “Somehow they’ll come to an agreement. We don’t want to go all the way; we’re not at war with Putin.”
It’s still this mentality of detente. No one took any radical action. 1/
Kasparov: The Russian government will be a threat. This threat could escalate into outright aggression. Europe is preparing for this. Multi-year military budgets are being planned. It is understood that this war must be won and Putin deprived of the ability to fight. 2/
Kasparov: This is a war in which the stakes aren’t just Ukraine’s survival as a state and a nation. Essentially, the future of all of Europe is at stake. The future of the Russian opposition depends on whether we can offer an adequate political expression of this demand. 3X
Sarah Paine: Putin is fixated on Ukraine, Xi on Taiwan — opposite ends of Eurasia. Their main theaters don’t align.
The West should avoid hot war, avoid trade wars, grow stronger. While Putin burns through Russia’s assets in Ukraine. That’s how the last Cold War was won.
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Sarah Paine: Putin is trying to build an empire in the age of nationalism. It’s a non-starter.
He’s burning Russia’s military in Ukraine while China expands into Central Asia.
Moscow chose a hot war while weak, and Beijing is strong. That’s what makes this so damaging.
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Sarah Paine: Siberia has exactly what China needs — resources and, above all, water.
Lake Baikal holds over 20% of the world’s surface freshwater.
China is famous for massive water projects, and Siberia is the nearest ‘quick fix.’
In a Kyiv suburb a Shahed strike erased a family in minutes.
Svitlana Blatova and her partner Maksym were killed instantly. Their 4-year-old daughter survived.
“A child screaming, ‘Mama, mama, mama.’ And her mother wasn’t answering. The upper floor was burning,” — Hromadske. 1/
Hours before the hit, Svitlana posted plans for the next day — errands, work, preparations for her eldest son’s 20th birthday. She went to sleep smiling. 2/
At 1:30 am, a Russian Shahed hit her apartment in Bilohorodka.
The duplex they had nearly finished paying off burned out completely. Svitlana and her partner Maksym were killed instantly. Their 4-year-old daughter survived. 3/
At 22, Ukrainian Viktoriia Honcharuk had a Manhattan banking job, Midtown apartment. Two weeks later, she was evacuating wounded soldiers under Russian fire, NY Post. 1/
Viktoriia quit her investment banking role in Dec 2022 and flew home.
No combat or medical background. She signed up as an emergency combat medic because it was the most needed job. One week of training. Then the front. 2/
Viktoriia: “I was afraid of blood. Afraid of needles. I’d never done anything medical. But I knew that’s what I had to do.”
She worked about 800 meters from the front, racing in a makeshift ambulance to retrieve the wounded. 3/
Colombian volunteer in Ukraine, DW: As of now, the president of Colombia sees us as mercenaries. He said we're mercenaries.
Because we're fighting for the freedom of a country? I personally fight for freedom. 1/
“The moment you get to this position, you see it's hell. Three orcs came up to my position, and I killed them. One FPV hit me, broke my finger. I bandaged myself up and kept fighting. That night I repelled a lot of assaults.” 2/
“One of my colleagues told me, we have to cross one kilometer of open field. Many people died there. He went and he was killed. I started to walk, they attacked me again. I was wounded. The 21 days in the position were very difficult. I almost died.” 3/