Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Nov 27, 2022 17 tweets 6 min read Read on X
Good evening. Day 5 after the latest Russian attack on Kyiv. Day 277 of the war. I am president of the Kyiv School of Economics, a former minister of economy of Ukraine, and a professor of economics at the University of Pittsburgh. I left the US for Kyiv 4 days before the war 1/ Image
and stayed there, with some short trips outside of Ukraine for fundraising. Officially, I am on sabbatical leave from Pittsburgh this year. I guess not many people have field sabbaticals, here the field is a war. I left the US because I must lead the Kyiv School of 2/
Economics through the war. I hold a green card and can leave Ukraine at any moment. But I do not want to and will not do it. Now, back to my day. It was busy and I am tired. Shopping, looking and assembling things. In short, preparing for another likely Russian attack tomorrow 3/
We got our super warm winter hiking clothing out. Many people suggested that we can sleep in a tent in our bedroom. So we dug out sleeping bags and went to buy a tent. 4/ Image
The shops were open and it was Black Friday. Everything on sale. But when we were about to pay, the electricity went off. The shop had a battery and continued to run. They used Xmas lights to save electricity instead of their regular ones. It was very cozy. Here is a pic. 5/ Image
Many people suggested that when the electricity and heating go out, we use candles or gas / kerosine heaters to warm the apartment. We decided against it. First, it is not too safe for novices. Second, none are on the market or we could find. So, we drove to 6/
another store to get at least some wood and coal. The plan is to use an simple and small firewood oven that we can set up on our balcony if all else fails. How do you drive when there is no lights in the city, that is, no traffic lights? Traffic police come out! My respect! 7/ Image
We wanted to try the firewood idea, just to practice, when we get home. But we got exhausted bringing all this stuff to the 8th floor. So, we will try it another time. Will post the picture. Yet, my wife wanted some tea anyway. And also she wanted to get hot water 8/ Image
for the morning. She asked me to start the generator so she can use electric tea pot. I did and discovered another problem. The snow on the balcony has melted. And the generator was sliding towards the windows because of vibration. I need a way to fix it in place, but that’s 9/
for tomorrow. Anyway, the water is boiled and stored in thermoses. We have two, one liter each. Perhaps, we should get more. We can probably order them delivered. Here is a pic of a delivery man on a bike 90 mins before the curfew. 10/ Image
That’s a private service. Public services work too. Here is a tractor shoveling snow on a sidewalk. All pictures taken when we were driving back from a mall. 11/ twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
The mall looked normal too except for occasionally blinking light, shortage of products in electrical and heating departments, and occasional assignments by managers to their staff to remember to start generators for the night. There was even a sushi restaurant. A good one. 12/ Image
In the morning, we checked out a center of “nezlamnost”. These are shelters when people can get warm, get some tea, access internet, and power their devices. Here is a Starlinks set up for you :). Very cute! 13/ Image
The center is run by a charity organization “solomenski cats”. Solomenski is the place. Here is their logo. We proposed to them to equip 10 more centers like that and KSE Foundation will match / provide 50% of funding. The rest they should raise themselves 14/ Image
The centers are set up officially at the request / initiative of the president and mayors. There is some funding. For basics. They are set up in hospitals and schools. The problem is that often money is not enough. You should have organizational and procurement capability 15/ Image
This is where we will try to help. Finally, I posted separately about our students spending the last night at the university building (we have one, no dorm). Here are some pics. 16/ twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
We are ready for another attack. Russians often hit on Monday. That’s tomorrow. Every time damages get worse. No water and heat for days. But people are adapting. You can donate to KSE here. Thank you so much for your support!!!

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More from @Mylovanov

Nov 16
President Stubb: I’m not optimistic about a ceasefire or peace talks in Ukraine this year — maybe by February or March.

Until then, we must maximize pressure on Russia and force Putin to rethink his aim of denying Ukraine’s independence. 1/
Stubb: Ukraine needs two things: financial support, using €140-180B in frozen Russian assets as collateral to get through winter — and increased military pressure.

West must keep supplying weapons. With Putin, only the stick works, he won’t negotiate unless forced. 2/
Stubb: Sanctioning Lukoil and Rosneft was the right move — it hits Russia’s oil sector and the machine funding the war.

Ukraine now needs maximum firepower, not just Tomahawks but anything that can strike Russia’s military and defense industry. 3/
Read 9 tweets
Nov 15
What’s new in the scandal over Ukraine’s largest electricity producer, Energoatom?

1. Ukraine’s migration service canceled Timur Mindich’s citizenship — he holds Israeli citizenship. Mindich fled Ukraine hours before NABU raids on Nov. 10.

1/ Image
2. Zelensky removed Energy Minister Svitlana Hrynchuk and Justice Minister Herman Halushchenko from the National Security and Defense Council.

Both ministers filed resignation letters after NABU exposed the bribery scheme.

2/
3. Courts took bail for two Energoatom “back-office” employees — Lesia Ustymenko (₴25M) and Liudmyla Zorina (₴12M), says RBK-Ukraine.

Five suspects are already detained; Mindich and businessman Oleksandr Zukerman escaped abroad.

3/
Read 7 tweets
Nov 15
Merz told Zelenskyy to stop the rising flow of young Ukrainian men to Germany and ensure they remain in Ukraine to serve.

Arrivals of Ukrainian men aged 18-22 surged from 19 per week in Aug to 1,400-1,800 per week in Oct after Kyiv relaxed exit rules, Politico. 1/ Image
Bavaria’s PM Markus Söder proposed limiting the EU Temporary Protection Directive if Kyiv doesn’t reduce departures.

The directive currently grants Ukrainians automatic protected status in the EU. 3/
Merz’s coalition fears the growing number of young male Ukrainians could become a political weapon for AfD, now polling first.

AfD criticizes support for Kyiv and demands ending welfare payments to Ukrainians. 4/
Read 7 tweets
Nov 15
Russia’s oil export revenues fell to $13.4B in September, a decline of $200M compared to the previous month.

Crude revenues increased by $200M, but this gain was fully offset by a $400M drop in oil product revenues, KSE Institute reports. 1/ Image
Seaborne oil exports increased by 4.1% compared to the previous month. Ships covered by international insurance carried only 26% of crude exports and 81% of oil product exports. 2/
Russian refinery runs dropped by about 800K barrels per day in October, reaching 4.6M barrels per day.

The decline was caused by continued drone attacks that forced Rosneft to reduce processing volumes by 22% compared to July. 3/
Read 13 tweets
Nov 14
Q: Latest situation in eastern Ukraine?

Stefanishyna, Ukraine’s ambassador to the US: Russia is scaling up its military budget and nightly drone attacks. Pokrovsk is used to create a “victorious” narrative, but Ukraine sees it as Russian agony. 1/
Q: Will Ukraine withdraw from Pokrovsk?

Stefanishyna: There were over 1,100 engagements last week, and Pokrovsk is just one spot. Russia is throwing 5 times more resources there, but it will not be decisive for the whole war. 2/
Q: Chance of getting Tomahawk missiles?

Stefanishyna: Many capabilities exist between Ukrainian drones and Tomahawks. Ukraine is committed to ending the war, but with attacks rising, defending people by destroying aggressor capabilities is natural. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Nov 14
Q: What’s Ukraine’s energy situation ahead of winter?

Zelenskyy: It’s tough. Russia launches up to 800 drones a day plus missiles at energy sites.

Ukraine depends on air defense, EW, and home-built drones to protect the grid.

1/
Zelenskyy: We need to not lose US and EU support.

We need long range artillery, air defence, and interceptor drones.

Overally we need long range. Not only Tomahawks, there are similar systems.

Some Russsian military targets have strong air defence. Drones aren't enough.

2/
Zelenskyy: We need Russian frozen assets very much. These are the real sanctions.

We’ll spend it on renovation, on air defence, on drones.

Russia began this war and they have to pay for it. This is the way they can pay.

3/
Read 4 tweets

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