Good evening. Day 5 after the latest Russian attack on Kyiv. Day 277 of the war. I am president of the Kyiv School of Economics, a former minister of economy of Ukraine, and a professor of economics at the University of Pittsburgh. I left the US for Kyiv 4 days before the war 1/
and stayed there, with some short trips outside of Ukraine for fundraising. Officially, I am on sabbatical leave from Pittsburgh this year. I guess not many people have field sabbaticals, here the field is a war. I left the US because I must lead the Kyiv School of 2/
Economics through the war. I hold a green card and can leave Ukraine at any moment. But I do not want to and will not do it. Now, back to my day. It was busy and I am tired. Shopping, looking and assembling things. In short, preparing for another likely Russian attack tomorrow 3/
We got our super warm winter hiking clothing out. Many people suggested that we can sleep in a tent in our bedroom. So we dug out sleeping bags and went to buy a tent. 4/
The shops were open and it was Black Friday. Everything on sale. But when we were about to pay, the electricity went off. The shop had a battery and continued to run. They used Xmas lights to save electricity instead of their regular ones. It was very cozy. Here is a pic. 5/
Many people suggested that when the electricity and heating go out, we use candles or gas / kerosine heaters to warm the apartment. We decided against it. First, it is not too safe for novices. Second, none are on the market or we could find. So, we drove to 6/
another store to get at least some wood and coal. The plan is to use an simple and small firewood oven that we can set up on our balcony if all else fails. How do you drive when there is no lights in the city, that is, no traffic lights? Traffic police come out! My respect! 7/
We wanted to try the firewood idea, just to practice, when we get home. But we got exhausted bringing all this stuff to the 8th floor. So, we will try it another time. Will post the picture. Yet, my wife wanted some tea anyway. And also she wanted to get hot water 8/
for the morning. She asked me to start the generator so she can use electric tea pot. I did and discovered another problem. The snow on the balcony has melted. And the generator was sliding towards the windows because of vibration. I need a way to fix it in place, but that’s 9/
for tomorrow. Anyway, the water is boiled and stored in thermoses. We have two, one liter each. Perhaps, we should get more. We can probably order them delivered. Here is a pic of a delivery man on a bike 90 mins before the curfew. 10/
That’s a private service. Public services work too. Here is a tractor shoveling snow on a sidewalk. All pictures taken when we were driving back from a mall. 11/ twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
The mall looked normal too except for occasionally blinking light, shortage of products in electrical and heating departments, and occasional assignments by managers to their staff to remember to start generators for the night. There was even a sushi restaurant. A good one. 12/
In the morning, we checked out a center of “nezlamnost”. These are shelters when people can get warm, get some tea, access internet, and power their devices. Here is a Starlinks set up for you :). Very cute! 13/
The center is run by a charity organization “solomenski cats”. Solomenski is the place. Here is their logo. We proposed to them to equip 10 more centers like that and KSE Foundation will match / provide 50% of funding. The rest they should raise themselves 14/
The centers are set up officially at the request / initiative of the president and mayors. There is some funding. For basics. They are set up in hospitals and schools. The problem is that often money is not enough. You should have organizational and procurement capability 15/
This is where we will try to help. Finally, I posted separately about our students spending the last night at the university building (we have one, no dorm). Here are some pics. 16/ twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
We are ready for another attack. Russians often hit on Monday. That’s tomorrow. Every time damages get worse. No water and heat for days. But people are adapting. You can donate to KSE here. Thank you so much for your support!!!
Khodorkovsky [former Russian oligarch brought down by Putin]: Putin may decide NATO will not answer strike for strike.
In that case, he could hit logistics chains and transport hubs in Europe that feed supplies into Ukraine. As I remember, there are two major entry points.
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Khodorkovsky: I doubt the stories about camouflage nets and taking Kostiantynivka are for Trump. Trump does not care where Kostiantynivka is.
They are for Russians. Putin thinks Russians care about it. They don’t. They care that the war ends on Russia’s terms.
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Khodorkovsky: Trump may warn Putin that any strike beyond Ukraine will end badly. Poland would be hit first, and its diaspora matters in the U.S.
I think Trump will cover Poland. Putin won’t stop before spring, but by spring he may have to.
Khodorkovsky [former Russian oligarch brought down by Putin]: Putin now has to manage what he never learned: a real economic breakdown.
He knows recruiting and special operations. Now the system’s “pants” are tearing, and he does not know how to stitch them back. 1/
Khodorkovsky: Now a critical amount of refinery capacity is under threat.
If Ukraine keeps striking and Russian air defense keeps missing about 20% of incoming drones and missiles, plants across European Russia, the Urals, and western Siberia will stay at risk. The only fix is a sharp cut in private fuel use.
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Khodorkovsky: Russia may not raise fuel prices on paper.
In practice, people will pay more to skip lines and get gasoline delivered, as in St. Petersburg. In a poorly regulated economy, this is how shortages spread. We saw the same thing at the end of the Soviet Union.
Khodorkovsky [former Russian oligarch brought down by Putin]: Civilian cars burn over half of Russia’s gasoline.
To keep freight and emergency services running, Russia must cut civilian fuel use by half or two-thirds. Prices will do the cutting. Ukraine scored a political win.1/
Khodorkovsky: Fuel crisis may grow much worse if Ukrainian strikes continue at today’s scale.
Omsk refinery shows almost all major Russian refineries are within range. Putin seems absent, and Mishustin has vanished into the fog.
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Khodorkovsky: Putin does not understand the scale of the problem or how to fix it.
He gave a critical national crisis to Novyk, who lacks the power to fire Sechin, Miller, or the head of Russian Railways. Novyk cannot solve it. Putin looks absent.
Kostyantynivka made the Kremlin's ruby-red stars and the glass on Lenin's mausoleum. Now Putin is grinding it into rubble to seize it.
The real prize is leverage over Trump, to argue holding Donbas is futile and Kyiv should concede — Christopher Miller, Financial Times. 1/
Kostyantynivka held about 70,000 people before the war. Around 2,000 remain, living without gas, water, electricity or medical help as food supplies run out.
They shelter in ruined blocks, and Russian drones have cut their movement to almost nothing. 2/
The city sits inside the kill zone, the drone-dominated strip of front where anything that moves is spotted and hit within minutes.
Ukraine now resupplies and evacuates by ground robots and on foot, with soldiers walking several miles in and out. 3/
For Putin, a ceasefire is a tool to win the war politically. Freeze the front, rebuild the army, break Ukraine's ties with Europe, then strike again.
He did exactly this after Minsk in 2014. — Michael Kimmage & Hanna Notte, Foreign Affairs.
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Putin's ceasefire playbook: call for elections in Ukraine, then use subversion to promote corruption narratives about Zelenskyy.
Offer endless circular negotiations. Encourage compliant Europeans to legitimize Russian-occupied territory.
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Putin would time his "peace" move to coincide with US midterm elections — boosting Trump-backed Republicans and diminishing prospects for a return to pro-NATO, pro-Ukraine policies in Washington.
A ceasefire lets Putin appear as a man of peace.
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