Good evening. Day 5 after the latest Russian attack on Kyiv. Day 277 of the war. I am president of the Kyiv School of Economics, a former minister of economy of Ukraine, and a professor of economics at the University of Pittsburgh. I left the US for Kyiv 4 days before the war 1/
and stayed there, with some short trips outside of Ukraine for fundraising. Officially, I am on sabbatical leave from Pittsburgh this year. I guess not many people have field sabbaticals, here the field is a war. I left the US because I must lead the Kyiv School of 2/
Economics through the war. I hold a green card and can leave Ukraine at any moment. But I do not want to and will not do it. Now, back to my day. It was busy and I am tired. Shopping, looking and assembling things. In short, preparing for another likely Russian attack tomorrow 3/
We got our super warm winter hiking clothing out. Many people suggested that we can sleep in a tent in our bedroom. So we dug out sleeping bags and went to buy a tent. 4/
The shops were open and it was Black Friday. Everything on sale. But when we were about to pay, the electricity went off. The shop had a battery and continued to run. They used Xmas lights to save electricity instead of their regular ones. It was very cozy. Here is a pic. 5/
Many people suggested that when the electricity and heating go out, we use candles or gas / kerosine heaters to warm the apartment. We decided against it. First, it is not too safe for novices. Second, none are on the market or we could find. So, we drove to 6/
another store to get at least some wood and coal. The plan is to use an simple and small firewood oven that we can set up on our balcony if all else fails. How do you drive when there is no lights in the city, that is, no traffic lights? Traffic police come out! My respect! 7/
We wanted to try the firewood idea, just to practice, when we get home. But we got exhausted bringing all this stuff to the 8th floor. So, we will try it another time. Will post the picture. Yet, my wife wanted some tea anyway. And also she wanted to get hot water 8/
for the morning. She asked me to start the generator so she can use electric tea pot. I did and discovered another problem. The snow on the balcony has melted. And the generator was sliding towards the windows because of vibration. I need a way to fix it in place, but that’s 9/
for tomorrow. Anyway, the water is boiled and stored in thermoses. We have two, one liter each. Perhaps, we should get more. We can probably order them delivered. Here is a pic of a delivery man on a bike 90 mins before the curfew. 10/
That’s a private service. Public services work too. Here is a tractor shoveling snow on a sidewalk. All pictures taken when we were driving back from a mall. 11/ twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
The mall looked normal too except for occasionally blinking light, shortage of products in electrical and heating departments, and occasional assignments by managers to their staff to remember to start generators for the night. There was even a sushi restaurant. A good one. 12/
In the morning, we checked out a center of “nezlamnost”. These are shelters when people can get warm, get some tea, access internet, and power their devices. Here is a Starlinks set up for you :). Very cute! 13/
The center is run by a charity organization “solomenski cats”. Solomenski is the place. Here is their logo. We proposed to them to equip 10 more centers like that and KSE Foundation will match / provide 50% of funding. The rest they should raise themselves 14/
The centers are set up officially at the request / initiative of the president and mayors. There is some funding. For basics. They are set up in hospitals and schools. The problem is that often money is not enough. You should have organizational and procurement capability 15/
This is where we will try to help. Finally, I posted separately about our students spending the last night at the university building (we have one, no dorm). Here are some pics. 16/ twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
We are ready for another attack. Russians often hit on Monday. That’s tomorrow. Every time damages get worse. No water and heat for days. But people are adapting. You can donate to KSE here. Thank you so much for your support!!!
Ukraine built a layered system to beat $50k Iranian drones — and is now exporting it.
Shahed: 1,500-mile range, 115 mph, 40 kg warhead, launched from trucks. Cheap, GPS-guided, mass-produced.
Gulf states initially countered them with $1M Patriots, Telegraph. 1/
Gulf states initially used $1M Patriot interceptors against $30k drones. They burned high-end missiles on low-cost drones.
Ukraine couldn’t afford that — it had to redesign air defense under constraint. So it built a cheaper, scalable air defense architecture from scratch. 2/
Ukraine’s system starts with sound detection.
Over 10,000 acoustic sensors track drone signatures, feeding location and trajectory into a centralized system — enabling early warning and guiding interceptors in real time. 3/
Ukraine says NATO is still blocking its membership — because of Putin.
Ambassador Alyona Getmanchuk: “Allies are too receptive to the Kremlin’s imperial fantasies,” keeping Kyiv out of the alliance despite years of war, Telegraph. 1/
Official reasons vary — corruption, lack of consensus.
Getmanchuk: “The real reason is political restraint shaped by Moscow’s demands, not Ukraine’s readiness.” 2/
NATO’s position has shifted backwards.
Vilnius 2023: promise of future invitation. Hague summit: even “bridge to membership” language dropped. US peace talks with Russia further froze the issue. 3/
Ukraine killed Putin’s plan to make billions from the Iran war.
After the Iran war lifted prices, Moscow was earning $760M/day from energy. So, Ukraine hit Russia's largest Baltic oil port — Ust-Luga, cutting into that cash flow by targeting export infrastructure, Telegraph. 1/
Drones flew 620 miles through multiple air defense layers before hitting storage tanks and loading systems — visible from Finland. 2/
Before Feb 28, Russia’s oil and gas revenues were down 47% YoY, with oil sold at deep discounts to India and budget deficits already at 91% of target. 3/
Musk’s 5-step framework for how to build effective systems:
Step 1 — make your requirements less dumb.
It doesn’t matter who gave them, even smart people. Everyone is wrong sometimes. Always question requirements, or you risk optimizing something flawed from the start. 1/
Musk: Step 2 — delete parts or processes.
If you’re not adding things back occasionally, you’re not deleting enough. Bias toward adding “just in case” is dangerous. Simplicity matters, especially in complex systems like reusable rockets. 2/
Musk: Step 3 — simplify or optimize, but only after deletion.
The biggest mistake is optimizing something that shouldn’t exist. Engineers are trained to answer questions, not challenge them — leading to wasted effort. 3/