Good evening. Day 5 after the latest Russian attack on Kyiv. Day 277 of the war. I am president of the Kyiv School of Economics, a former minister of economy of Ukraine, and a professor of economics at the University of Pittsburgh. I left the US for Kyiv 4 days before the war 1/
and stayed there, with some short trips outside of Ukraine for fundraising. Officially, I am on sabbatical leave from Pittsburgh this year. I guess not many people have field sabbaticals, here the field is a war. I left the US because I must lead the Kyiv School of 2/
Economics through the war. I hold a green card and can leave Ukraine at any moment. But I do not want to and will not do it. Now, back to my day. It was busy and I am tired. Shopping, looking and assembling things. In short, preparing for another likely Russian attack tomorrow 3/
We got our super warm winter hiking clothing out. Many people suggested that we can sleep in a tent in our bedroom. So we dug out sleeping bags and went to buy a tent. 4/
The shops were open and it was Black Friday. Everything on sale. But when we were about to pay, the electricity went off. The shop had a battery and continued to run. They used Xmas lights to save electricity instead of their regular ones. It was very cozy. Here is a pic. 5/
Many people suggested that when the electricity and heating go out, we use candles or gas / kerosine heaters to warm the apartment. We decided against it. First, it is not too safe for novices. Second, none are on the market or we could find. So, we drove to 6/
another store to get at least some wood and coal. The plan is to use an simple and small firewood oven that we can set up on our balcony if all else fails. How do you drive when there is no lights in the city, that is, no traffic lights? Traffic police come out! My respect! 7/
We wanted to try the firewood idea, just to practice, when we get home. But we got exhausted bringing all this stuff to the 8th floor. So, we will try it another time. Will post the picture. Yet, my wife wanted some tea anyway. And also she wanted to get hot water 8/
for the morning. She asked me to start the generator so she can use electric tea pot. I did and discovered another problem. The snow on the balcony has melted. And the generator was sliding towards the windows because of vibration. I need a way to fix it in place, but that’s 9/
for tomorrow. Anyway, the water is boiled and stored in thermoses. We have two, one liter each. Perhaps, we should get more. We can probably order them delivered. Here is a pic of a delivery man on a bike 90 mins before the curfew. 10/
That’s a private service. Public services work too. Here is a tractor shoveling snow on a sidewalk. All pictures taken when we were driving back from a mall. 11/ twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
The mall looked normal too except for occasionally blinking light, shortage of products in electrical and heating departments, and occasional assignments by managers to their staff to remember to start generators for the night. There was even a sushi restaurant. A good one. 12/
In the morning, we checked out a center of “nezlamnost”. These are shelters when people can get warm, get some tea, access internet, and power their devices. Here is a Starlinks set up for you :). Very cute! 13/
The center is run by a charity organization “solomenski cats”. Solomenski is the place. Here is their logo. We proposed to them to equip 10 more centers like that and KSE Foundation will match / provide 50% of funding. The rest they should raise themselves 14/
The centers are set up officially at the request / initiative of the president and mayors. There is some funding. For basics. They are set up in hospitals and schools. The problem is that often money is not enough. You should have organizational and procurement capability 15/
This is where we will try to help. Finally, I posted separately about our students spending the last night at the university building (we have one, no dorm). Here are some pics. 16/ twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
We are ready for another attack. Russians often hit on Monday. That’s tomorrow. Every time damages get worse. No water and heat for days. But people are adapting. You can donate to KSE here. Thank you so much for your support!!!
At Munich Security Conference world leaders declared post-1945 world order is dead — Ray Dalio.
Merz: "The world order as it has stood for decades no longer exists. We are in a period of great power politics. Freedom is no longer a given". 1/
Macron: Europe's old security structures tied to previous world order don't exist. Europe must prepare for war.
Rubio: We are in a new geopolitics era because the old world is gone. 2/
Ray Dalio: We are in Stage 6 part of the Big Cycle in which there is great disorder arising from a period where there are no rules, might is right, and there is a clash of great powers.
This is the stage where international relations follow the law of the jungle. 3/
Russia's foreign intelligence service planned military coup in Senegal.
Leaked documents show Moscow recruited local military figures to seize power and prepared political and logistical support for new regime — United24. 1/
After Prigozhin's death, Russia brought Wagner under direct control of foreign intelligence service.
76 internal documents from 2023-2024 show transfer of Wagner's assets to state structures. Key figures include Sergei Mashkevich, Sergei Klyukin, Artem Gorny. 2/
Russia created "African Political Science" with $750K monthly budget.
Uses St. Petersburg offices to coordinate operations in 30+ countries. Organization divided into political operations for lobbying and media operations for manipulative social media content. 3/
Andrey Kurkov, Ukrainian writer: Nobody’s winning in Russia-Ukraine war.
Trump wants to be a winner and look like a peacemaker, but he’s a business dealer. He wants a deal with Russia, and Ukraine is an obstacle to restarting joint oil projects and profits. 1/
Kurkov: I feel like I spent already half of my life in war. Now it became part of daily life and lottery. You never know who will be killed tomorrow by Russians.
You just live one day at a time, hoping to survive till the next year, but with no guarantee. 2/
Kurkov: This winter became the main enemy — it allied with Russia.
Not sleeping because of explosions is one thing, not sleeping because of the cold is another. With no heating, you go to bed with plastic bottles filled with boiled water. It isn’t good for your health. 3/
Bolton: It was a mistake not pressing earlier to admit Belarus, Ukraine and Moldova to NATO. We absorbed eastern Europe for one reason — space.
Every country pushed the front line closer. We failed to close the gap and Ukraine, Moldova and Belarus were left in a gray zone. 1/
Bolton: The French and the Germans objected Ukraine and Georgia in NATO. Ukraine is an incredibly rich powerful country striving to be Western, rejecting the nationalism of Putin.
It was closely related to our vital interest in the peace and stability of other NATO members. 2/
Bolton: We don't have a national security decision-making process anymore. Trump has proposed a $500 billion increase in the defense budget. Great, but we are behind.
Communist China is becoming a peer nuclear competitor. In a tripolar nuclear world, none of treaties work. 3X
A mine tore off his foot. He tightened a tourniquet and crawled six hours under FPV drones to stay alive.
This is “Keks,” a fighter from Ukraine’s 144th Special Operations Center. — Ukrainska Pravda 1/
At 05:00 he moved out with three comrades. High grass covered the trail. He stepped on a Soviet-designed “petal” mine.
The blast shredded his foot. He tried to run, collapsed twice, then dragged himself to a tree for cover. 2/
A teammate on his first combat mission tightened the tourniquet.
Keks handed over his machine gun, gave orders, and told the group to move ahead while he crawled behind them. FPVs hunted overhead. Mortars struck nearby. 3/
Estonia FM Tsahkna: The story “Estonia is one of the most vulnerable countries” is fake news. We prepare for a Russian probable invasion and the deterrence is really strong. NATO is stronger than ever. If Russia is coming to our territories, we will bring the war to Russia. 1/
Tsahkna: For 20 years we have been saying Europe must do more and have more self-confidence. Our relation with US is very strong but not anymore unconditional. Let’s use this pressure to wake up Europe. The new vision must be let’s unite Europe. 2/
Tsahkna: There was no support for idea to start talking with Kremlin on Thursday informal meeting of European leaders. We must put more pressure on Russia not to talk with them. 3/