Good evening. Day 5 after the latest Russian attack on Kyiv. Day 277 of the war. I am president of the Kyiv School of Economics, a former minister of economy of Ukraine, and a professor of economics at the University of Pittsburgh. I left the US for Kyiv 4 days before the war 1/
and stayed there, with some short trips outside of Ukraine for fundraising. Officially, I am on sabbatical leave from Pittsburgh this year. I guess not many people have field sabbaticals, here the field is a war. I left the US because I must lead the Kyiv School of 2/
Economics through the war. I hold a green card and can leave Ukraine at any moment. But I do not want to and will not do it. Now, back to my day. It was busy and I am tired. Shopping, looking and assembling things. In short, preparing for another likely Russian attack tomorrow 3/
We got our super warm winter hiking clothing out. Many people suggested that we can sleep in a tent in our bedroom. So we dug out sleeping bags and went to buy a tent. 4/
The shops were open and it was Black Friday. Everything on sale. But when we were about to pay, the electricity went off. The shop had a battery and continued to run. They used Xmas lights to save electricity instead of their regular ones. It was very cozy. Here is a pic. 5/
Many people suggested that when the electricity and heating go out, we use candles or gas / kerosine heaters to warm the apartment. We decided against it. First, it is not too safe for novices. Second, none are on the market or we could find. So, we drove to 6/
another store to get at least some wood and coal. The plan is to use an simple and small firewood oven that we can set up on our balcony if all else fails. How do you drive when there is no lights in the city, that is, no traffic lights? Traffic police come out! My respect! 7/
We wanted to try the firewood idea, just to practice, when we get home. But we got exhausted bringing all this stuff to the 8th floor. So, we will try it another time. Will post the picture. Yet, my wife wanted some tea anyway. And also she wanted to get hot water 8/
for the morning. She asked me to start the generator so she can use electric tea pot. I did and discovered another problem. The snow on the balcony has melted. And the generator was sliding towards the windows because of vibration. I need a way to fix it in place, but that’s 9/
for tomorrow. Anyway, the water is boiled and stored in thermoses. We have two, one liter each. Perhaps, we should get more. We can probably order them delivered. Here is a pic of a delivery man on a bike 90 mins before the curfew. 10/
That’s a private service. Public services work too. Here is a tractor shoveling snow on a sidewalk. All pictures taken when we were driving back from a mall. 11/ twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
The mall looked normal too except for occasionally blinking light, shortage of products in electrical and heating departments, and occasional assignments by managers to their staff to remember to start generators for the night. There was even a sushi restaurant. A good one. 12/
In the morning, we checked out a center of “nezlamnost”. These are shelters when people can get warm, get some tea, access internet, and power their devices. Here is a Starlinks set up for you :). Very cute! 13/
The center is run by a charity organization “solomenski cats”. Solomenski is the place. Here is their logo. We proposed to them to equip 10 more centers like that and KSE Foundation will match / provide 50% of funding. The rest they should raise themselves 14/
The centers are set up officially at the request / initiative of the president and mayors. There is some funding. For basics. They are set up in hospitals and schools. The problem is that often money is not enough. You should have organizational and procurement capability 15/
This is where we will try to help. Finally, I posted separately about our students spending the last night at the university building (we have one, no dorm). Here are some pics. 16/ twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
We are ready for another attack. Russians often hit on Monday. That’s tomorrow. Every time damages get worse. No water and heat for days. But people are adapting. You can donate to KSE here. Thank you so much for your support!!!
Former CIA Director Petraeus: I said from the start Russia would not take Kyiv. Others predicted it would fall in 3–5 days. Kyiv is a vast city with brave defenders.
It would be extremely hard to break in — and Ukraine’s actions denied Russia the airfield north of the capital.1/
Petraeus: The Budapest Memorandum was a major failure.
Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons in exchange for security assurances from the US, Russia, and the UK and those guarantees weren’t upheld. This is Ukraine’s war for independence — a fight for its very survival.
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Petraeus: US sanctions are under Senate review.
If paired with the EU’s 19th package and continued military support, the pressure could be strong enough to push Putin toward a ceasefire by the end of the year.
Angela Stent, Former National Intel Officer: Every time Witkoff claims progress on Ukraine, the next day Putin or Lavrov restate the same demands — withdrawal from Donbas and “denazification”.
They also cite an “Anchorage formula” no US official confirms. It’s obfuscation. 1/
Stent: Russia's negotiations are entirely performative.
They follow Soviet and post-Soviet tactics: negotiate to create a process and wear people down. Putin wants to humor Trump to avoid more punitive actions from the US administration. 2X
Former Amb. to Ukraine, William Taylor: Putin can't break Ukraine’s will. He’s tried for 4 years.
They don’t show signs of breaking. Soldiers, civilians, people in and out of government know that if they lose, there’s no Ukraine. They have to win and stop the Russians. 1/
Taylor: We want to see Ukrainians stop the Russians. Europeans want the same because Russia is a clear threat to them.
They’re stepping up with a $100B loan and continued funds. If big neighbors invade little ones and prevail, that’s not the world we want to live in. 2/
Taylor: Zelenskyy says Europeans have to step up more and prepare for a time when Americans are not there. He’s probably right.
Trump may not change. Europeans need to build up, provide weapons, and strengthen the defense industrial base. 3X
Macron: Russian energy stopped in 2022. There is no way back.
China as a supermarket for our export is over, and during the past 2 years we were overwhelmed by the Chinese export.
The US is imposing tariffs on us and a series of economic coercion mechanisms. 1/
Macron: End of Russia as a permanent provider of local energy. End of China as a main export market. The US is imposing tariffs on our economy and a coercion mechanism.
This is a game changer. This is not just a transition. None of these factors will change in the short run. 2/
Macron: China is an authoritarian regime, no offense, this is a collective choice. The US is becoming an unpredictable economy and governance.
In the middle of that — the EU. It remains a place where the rule of law and predictability remain valid. 3X