Good evening. Day 5 after the latest Russian attack on Kyiv. Day 277 of the war. I am president of the Kyiv School of Economics, a former minister of economy of Ukraine, and a professor of economics at the University of Pittsburgh. I left the US for Kyiv 4 days before the war 1/
and stayed there, with some short trips outside of Ukraine for fundraising. Officially, I am on sabbatical leave from Pittsburgh this year. I guess not many people have field sabbaticals, here the field is a war. I left the US because I must lead the Kyiv School of 2/
Economics through the war. I hold a green card and can leave Ukraine at any moment. But I do not want to and will not do it. Now, back to my day. It was busy and I am tired. Shopping, looking and assembling things. In short, preparing for another likely Russian attack tomorrow 3/
We got our super warm winter hiking clothing out. Many people suggested that we can sleep in a tent in our bedroom. So we dug out sleeping bags and went to buy a tent. 4/
The shops were open and it was Black Friday. Everything on sale. But when we were about to pay, the electricity went off. The shop had a battery and continued to run. They used Xmas lights to save electricity instead of their regular ones. It was very cozy. Here is a pic. 5/
Many people suggested that when the electricity and heating go out, we use candles or gas / kerosine heaters to warm the apartment. We decided against it. First, it is not too safe for novices. Second, none are on the market or we could find. So, we drove to 6/
another store to get at least some wood and coal. The plan is to use an simple and small firewood oven that we can set up on our balcony if all else fails. How do you drive when there is no lights in the city, that is, no traffic lights? Traffic police come out! My respect! 7/
We wanted to try the firewood idea, just to practice, when we get home. But we got exhausted bringing all this stuff to the 8th floor. So, we will try it another time. Will post the picture. Yet, my wife wanted some tea anyway. And also she wanted to get hot water 8/
for the morning. She asked me to start the generator so she can use electric tea pot. I did and discovered another problem. The snow on the balcony has melted. And the generator was sliding towards the windows because of vibration. I need a way to fix it in place, but that’s 9/
for tomorrow. Anyway, the water is boiled and stored in thermoses. We have two, one liter each. Perhaps, we should get more. We can probably order them delivered. Here is a pic of a delivery man on a bike 90 mins before the curfew. 10/
That’s a private service. Public services work too. Here is a tractor shoveling snow on a sidewalk. All pictures taken when we were driving back from a mall. 11/ twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
The mall looked normal too except for occasionally blinking light, shortage of products in electrical and heating departments, and occasional assignments by managers to their staff to remember to start generators for the night. There was even a sushi restaurant. A good one. 12/
In the morning, we checked out a center of “nezlamnost”. These are shelters when people can get warm, get some tea, access internet, and power their devices. Here is a Starlinks set up for you :). Very cute! 13/
The center is run by a charity organization “solomenski cats”. Solomenski is the place. Here is their logo. We proposed to them to equip 10 more centers like that and KSE Foundation will match / provide 50% of funding. The rest they should raise themselves 14/
The centers are set up officially at the request / initiative of the president and mayors. There is some funding. For basics. They are set up in hospitals and schools. The problem is that often money is not enough. You should have organizational and procurement capability 15/
This is where we will try to help. Finally, I posted separately about our students spending the last night at the university building (we have one, no dorm). Here are some pics. 16/ twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
We are ready for another attack. Russians often hit on Monday. That’s tomorrow. Every time damages get worse. No water and heat for days. But people are adapting. You can donate to KSE here. Thank you so much for your support!!!
Commander of Ukraine's 3rd Corps Biletsky: Russia runs short on manpower — you feel it every month.
The meat waves that were normal 7-8 months ago are gone, even at the hottest sections of the front. And Ukraine now dominates the air — from the first trench to 200km deep.
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Biletsky: Russia failed winter, failed spring. In May they captured roughly 10km² — Ukraine gained more.
When you can't win on the battlefield, you terrorize women and children. The tactical shift is happening right now.
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Biletsky: In 6-7 months Russia loses tactically on the ground.
Their answer: terror strikes on Ukrainian cities, new drone volumes to overwhelm air defense. Against drones alone, Ukraine can reach 100% interception.
Ukraine was supposed to have “no cards.” Now Putin is trapped in “zugzwang”.
Russia captured only 0.04% of Ukraine this year, lost territory in Apr, cut the Victory Day parade to 45 minutes, and now fears Ukrainian drones near Moscow, George Will for the WP. 1/
Zelenskyy turned Putin’s main war ritual into a security problem.
Ukraine “permitted” the May 9 parade by not striking Red Square, while fewer troops and vehicles appeared because Moscow feared drone attacks on staging areas. 2/
Russia’s battlefield gains now cost absurd amounts of manpower.
Putin’s troops can spend weeks losing hundreds of fighting-age men to seize patches of land the size of the National Mall. 3/
Sergei Magnitsky exposed a $200M Russian state tax fraud and was beaten to death in a Moscow prison in 2009.
His friend Jamison Firestone, who helped campaign for the Magnitsky Act, tells The Times the only way to beat Putin is to hand frozen Russian assets to Ukraine.
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The fraud: acquire companies that already paid large taxes, fabricate losses on paper, claim the taxes back as rebates.
When Magnitsky exposed it, authorities arrested him instead of the implicated officials.
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Magnitsky spent almost a year in detention. His eight-year-old son waited for a phone call.
The authorities waited exactly 30 days — the legal limit — before sending formal refusals to his written requests.
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Russia's war spending can exceed its budget by at least $28 billion this year. In a worst-case scenario — $56 billion over.
The Finance Ministry asked the cabinet to freeze $40 billion of planned civilian spending through 2028 to cover the shortfall, FT.
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Russia allocated $238 billion, nearly 40% of this year's entire budget, to defence and security. Still not enough.
In the first four months of 2026, Russia's deficit already hit 2.5% of GDP — the largest since the full-scale invasion began.
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Finance Minister Siluanov: "Our reserves are not endless. We can't allow any weak points in our finances while such major transformations are going on in the world."
The economy ministry cut its 2026 growth forecast to just 0.4%.
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Ukraine hit Rosneft's Saratov oil refinery in southwestern Russia.
The plant processes 7 million tons of crude per year and produces fuel for Russia's military. This is the third strike on it this year. — Bloomberg. 1/
The same night, Ukraine hit an oil-pumping station on the Surgut-Gorky-Polotsk pipeline in central Russia's Kirov region.
Russia's Defense Ministry said 216 Ukrainian drones were shot down overnight.
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The strikes are part of Ukraine's stepped-up campaign against Russian oil assets — refineries, pipeline infrastructure and ports — targeting Kremlin petrodollar revenue as the Iran war keeps oil prices elevated.