Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Nov 27, 2022 17 tweets 6 min read Read on X
Good evening. Day 5 after the latest Russian attack on Kyiv. Day 277 of the war. I am president of the Kyiv School of Economics, a former minister of economy of Ukraine, and a professor of economics at the University of Pittsburgh. I left the US for Kyiv 4 days before the war 1/ Image
and stayed there, with some short trips outside of Ukraine for fundraising. Officially, I am on sabbatical leave from Pittsburgh this year. I guess not many people have field sabbaticals, here the field is a war. I left the US because I must lead the Kyiv School of 2/
Economics through the war. I hold a green card and can leave Ukraine at any moment. But I do not want to and will not do it. Now, back to my day. It was busy and I am tired. Shopping, looking and assembling things. In short, preparing for another likely Russian attack tomorrow 3/
We got our super warm winter hiking clothing out. Many people suggested that we can sleep in a tent in our bedroom. So we dug out sleeping bags and went to buy a tent. 4/ Image
The shops were open and it was Black Friday. Everything on sale. But when we were about to pay, the electricity went off. The shop had a battery and continued to run. They used Xmas lights to save electricity instead of their regular ones. It was very cozy. Here is a pic. 5/ Image
Many people suggested that when the electricity and heating go out, we use candles or gas / kerosine heaters to warm the apartment. We decided against it. First, it is not too safe for novices. Second, none are on the market or we could find. So, we drove to 6/
another store to get at least some wood and coal. The plan is to use an simple and small firewood oven that we can set up on our balcony if all else fails. How do you drive when there is no lights in the city, that is, no traffic lights? Traffic police come out! My respect! 7/ Image
We wanted to try the firewood idea, just to practice, when we get home. But we got exhausted bringing all this stuff to the 8th floor. So, we will try it another time. Will post the picture. Yet, my wife wanted some tea anyway. And also she wanted to get hot water 8/ Image
for the morning. She asked me to start the generator so she can use electric tea pot. I did and discovered another problem. The snow on the balcony has melted. And the generator was sliding towards the windows because of vibration. I need a way to fix it in place, but that’s 9/
for tomorrow. Anyway, the water is boiled and stored in thermoses. We have two, one liter each. Perhaps, we should get more. We can probably order them delivered. Here is a pic of a delivery man on a bike 90 mins before the curfew. 10/ Image
That’s a private service. Public services work too. Here is a tractor shoveling snow on a sidewalk. All pictures taken when we were driving back from a mall. 11/ twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
The mall looked normal too except for occasionally blinking light, shortage of products in electrical and heating departments, and occasional assignments by managers to their staff to remember to start generators for the night. There was even a sushi restaurant. A good one. 12/ Image
In the morning, we checked out a center of “nezlamnost”. These are shelters when people can get warm, get some tea, access internet, and power their devices. Here is a Starlinks set up for you :). Very cute! 13/ Image
The center is run by a charity organization “solomenski cats”. Solomenski is the place. Here is their logo. We proposed to them to equip 10 more centers like that and KSE Foundation will match / provide 50% of funding. The rest they should raise themselves 14/ Image
The centers are set up officially at the request / initiative of the president and mayors. There is some funding. For basics. They are set up in hospitals and schools. The problem is that often money is not enough. You should have organizational and procurement capability 15/ Image
This is where we will try to help. Finally, I posted separately about our students spending the last night at the university building (we have one, no dorm). Here are some pics. 16/ twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
We are ready for another attack. Russians often hit on Monday. That’s tomorrow. Every time damages get worse. No water and heat for days. But people are adapting. You can donate to KSE here. Thank you so much for your support!!!

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More from @Mylovanov

May 10
Kasparov: America is no longer the rock people knew. For dissidents it was a beacon; for everyone else, a force to reckon with.

Today all bets are off. The world built around US military, economic and political power is over, and America’s role will be reconsidered. 1/
Kasparov: NATO is dead. It is not just irrelevant; it refused to take part in the war it was built for.

Russia was the original threat, and when the real challenge to European security came from Russia, NATO waffled, ducked, and categorically refused to join. 2/
Kasparov: Europe is now building defense plans without America. Once Europeans erase old plans that included the US and build new ones, why bring America back?

America lost its reputation, and the geopolitical damage will be felt for years, maybe decades. 3/
Read 7 tweets
May 9
Kellogg: Iran has two options. A deal written with disappearing ink, or military operations continue.

They use a mosaic defense, decentralizing command and control across 31 districts. We do not really know who is in control, so keep eliminating the Revolutionary Guards. 1/
Kellogg: I strongly advocate going after Kharg Island and putting a provisional government in charge.

There are Iranian opposition groups that could lead. Otherwise Tehran will keep doing what is in its playbook: talk, fight, talk again, and fight again. 2/
Kellogg: I do not see this ending soon unless we change the game plan and take mosaic warfare away from Iran’s advantage.

They will keep throwing mosquito boats and small fleets at us. One day they could get lucky, and we lose a tanker or a warship. 3/
Read 8 tweets
May 9
Pompeo: Since October 7, the grip of Russia, Iran, and China on the Middle East has become much smaller.

Russia’s position in Damascus has collapsed, Hezbollah is badly diminished, Hamas is weaker, and Tehran is now in a much more difficult position. 1/
Pompeo: If we stop halfway, Iran gets another 30 to 50 years of extortion power.

This action was not only proper but necessary, because a nuclear-armed Iran with its conventional system intact would soon have made this kind of operation impossible. 2/
Pompeo: The IRGC is failing to meet payroll and bonuses, and the sanctions squeeze is choking the regime financially.

Systems like this can look incredibly strong until they suddenly crack. People said the same thing about the Soviet Union until the wall came down. 3/
Read 7 tweets
May 9
Pompeo: For 40 years, our policy was to sell more stuff into China and hope China would become more like us. That was wrong.

Of all the hostile leaders I dealt with, the Chinese Communist Party is the one that can actually change the way we live. 1/
Pompeo: We are not going to fully decouple from China.

But anything tied to technology, security, pharmaceuticals, or biotech should be made in friendly countries, so we are never again left in a crisis without the things we actually need. 2/
Pompeo: The Chinese Communist Party is already inside the gates—in universities, labs, companies, and farmland deals.

My answer is reciprocity: if they would never let us do it in China, we should stop letting them do it here. 3/
Read 7 tweets
May 9
“If Russia tried to seize Kyiv again, it would be the biggest bloodbath in world history. Two million drones would swarm over the tanks and burn them mercilessly.”

The Guardian: Madyar is Russia’s top assassination target after Zelenskyy. 1/ Image
Robert “Madyar” Brovdi, commander of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces, leads the 414th brigade — the unit that has made Putin cancel tanks at this Saturday’s Victory Day parade for the first time in nearly 20 years. 2/
Brovdi acknowledges a “symbolic” attack on Red Square would generate headlines. But: “Why waste drones on the great wall? If you hit the energy sector or military — that’s the best strike, on the periphery.” 3/
Read 12 tweets
May 9
Trump expected another Venezuela — days, a toppled regime, a victory lap.

Instead Iran mined Hormuz, shut 20% of global oil flows, and turned gas prices and polls into the real front.

Iran does not need to win militarily. Iran needs to make the exit humiliating — The Atlantic. 1/Image
Trump can sell almost any paper as a win. He cannot sell a war with no ending.

The White House is still waiting for Iran to answer a one page memorandum that extends a cease fire, not a treaty. 2/
Gas prices and polls do not wait. Republicans get the complaints at the pump, not in Situation Room briefings.

Trump wants the war to end before it wrecks a midterm year. 3/
Read 9 tweets

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