Gaurav Sabnis Profile picture
Nov 28 10 tweets 3 min read
If you say out loud on social media something like "oh #BharatJodoYatra is drawing good crowds but I don't think it will translate to votes", you do realize that you are effectively campaigning for the BJP? When you push their prospects, even as a Pascal's wager, you help them.
People don't seem to get the difference between elections and sports contests. You can make predictions about sports and it doesn't really affect the outcome.

But democracy is run by campaigning & messaging. If you yourself start off saying your side will lose, you're useless.
If you say "India will lose the world cup", you're just someone on the sidelines making a prediction with no consequences.

Butt when you say, out loud to other people "oh BJP will win no matter what 🙄🤷🏽" that's like if Hardik Pandya himself says India will lose the world cup.
Because you are endogenous to the system in a democracy. You are not hired to predict elections. You are supposed to participate in campaigns you support, vote for your side, spread the word.

Not be a demoralizing buzzkill who finds the compulsive need to sabotage yourself.
Have you EVER heard sanghis show cautionary pessimism? For decades, their claims have been bigger than their achievements. They create illusions of inevitability.

It's our side who can't digest food without bashing our own side & predicting its loss, thus contributing to BJP
I remember when @AdamForColorado started his campaign, people were like, oh, no chance he can upset Boebert, deeply red Trumpy district, why even try etc.

He almost pulled off an upset just running a campaign like it is meant to be run. Not declaring a loss even before elections
If you get the prediction of a BJP win in the next election right, it's not like McArthur Genius Grant people will be contacting you to give you money for your impeccable political analysis.

But if you say BJP can & will be defeated, you might help make it happen.

Your choice.
Also people who go "jo jeeta wohi sikander, winning is all that matters, margins don't" or "why can't Congress win anymore", again, it's NOT a sports contest. Politics moves in trends. This election feeds into the next one. Margins matter. Turnouts matter. Your input matters.
Apun ke public ko democracy ek spectator sport lagta hai. Sit on the sidelines and make comments, no participation.
Rahul Gandhi is not your employee.

Narendra Modi is your employee.

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More from @gauravsabnis

Nov 28
For sure. But US is in like 4th or 5th generation of the commercial mass media phenomenon. They were making satirical movies like Network in the 1970s that are just starting to play out on Indian TV today.

India is still in its first generation of mass media. Skepticism is low.
It's fascinating how Skepticism about something dominant doesn't set in for a couple of generations.

Americans today trust news or media or even advertising less than ever before. Because Americans today were brought up with second order effects of those phenomena.
We did make Phir Bhi Dil Hai Hindustani, but it was so ahead of its time, that it flopped badly.

Watch PBDHH today and you'll be like whoa, this movie is over 20 years old? It feels like it's about today!
Read 4 tweets
Nov 28
An old dear friend sent an email asking for advice for his daughter who wants to go to college in the US.

With his permission, sharing the reply I sent him. Cos this might be of more general use. And preclude a lot of questions for parents in the future. 1/2 ImageImageImageImage
And of course the budget question.

If you're thinking of sending your kid to undergrad college in the be US, be ready to cut big checks. I didn't design the system. I'm just telling you how it works.

Grad school, totally different story. Image
This is an admittedly subjective and even idealistic take that might not sit well with all parents footing the hefty bills.

But yeah, employability should not be a criterion if you're an Indian sending your kid to an American university for undergrad. Image
Read 5 tweets
Nov 28
Dude is, without a trace of irony or self-awareness, quoting a speech from a movie villain, a guy who uses this speech to deflect attention from his crime, murder, and lies. And in this smug burst, confesses his crime. And is immediately arrested.

Telling choice, @Capt_Cool1
This is like political debate equivalent of playing "every breath you take" at weddings.

That speech is arguably the best self-own in movie history. 🤣🤣
So @Capt_Cool1 watched A few Good Men and at the end, thought Jack Nicholson is the good guy? Someone who causes the death of a young man, lies, obfuscates, and uses his service as a shield?

You don't even need inkblots for this Rorschach test.
Read 4 tweets
Nov 27
Flashback 🧵 of some trekking songs from my trekking days in the sahyadris. When after walking all day, you gathered around at night, sometimes around a small fire, and sang songs together until sleepy.

"Hi Chaal Turu Turu" was prolly the top such song for my generation.
The session usually got going with this peppy romantic onomatopoeic ditty that says

"She walks turuturu
Her hair flies bhurubhuru
A lock of hair on her left eye
Like a female cobra
Slithering through
A grassy field
As the sun sets"

(it is impossible to translate turuturu and bhurubhuru but the beauty of these words is that you just need to say them in context and you know what they mean. Like hair flying bhurubhuru. Marathi is so awesome no?)
Read 10 tweets
Nov 27
Meanwhile billions are being pumped into projects in BJP ruled states with no real accountability or oversight. All we see as outcomes there are slick slides or photoshops of how UP is just about to surpass California as an investment destination or some such concocted crap.
"Modi has improved India's stature abroad."

"Who says?"

"Everyone says."

"Who specifically? Indian media or foreign media?"

"Everyone says."

"Any foreign media that has said Modi has boosted India's image?"

"Everyone says."

"So just Modi says."

"Everyone says."
"Yogi has turned UP into a marvel & economic powerhouse that everyone wants to invest in."

"Who says?"

"Everyone says."

"Any independent entities saying it about UP, like many agencies worldwide praising Antiochia govt for recovering from Escobar era?"

"Everyone says"

🤷🏽🤷🏽
Read 10 tweets
Nov 27
Though many of us said this in the moment, looking back, it is especially clear how the Jamia attack was a clear "level-up" by Sanghi goons trying to curry favor with the leadership.

Jamia, unlike JNU, is NOT a very political university.

It does have Islam in its name tho.
Something the Godi media obviously never covered but something that anyone who knows anyone from Jamia knows. It was, until the attack, just your generic Indian uni with boilerplate programs & courses.

But to a sanghi Whatsapp warrior, the name itself conjures up Al Qaeda.
There was no real student politics. Literally the only reason Jamia Milia Islamia got attacked was because it has a textbook Muslim sounding name that can be easily demonized to conjure up images of Islamic extremists running rampant. Even if reality is ridiculously different.
Read 9 tweets

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