People are acting like Bakhmut is on the verge of collapse or something. It isn't. Bakhmut is stable, Russia really isn't threatening it at the moment. The area south of Bakhmut is under stress, but the line is still holding. There are many lines of defense, like a big onion.
I wrote this a while ago, Wagner is taking really horrific casualties south of Bakhmut, but they are attacking there because they know they cannot attack the city itself. They would be massacred. Casualties would rise dramatically. That is always the fall back plan for Ukraine.
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I now I have information from two independent sources that Ozarianivka is contested, not captured. Zelenopillya is in heavy combat but mostly Ukrainian, and Andriivka is Ukrainian.
Lots of combat in all three areas, I label all three as gray area. They are different shades of gray, though. Russians have suffered high casualties in Zelenopillya and Andriivka. Between 50 and 100 combined between them.
The situation south of Bakhmut isn’t great. Klishiivka and Opytne are both still in Ukrainian control. The rest isn’t going well. Kurdyumivka probably wont last. Zelenopillya and Andriivka have been been in a bad situation since the 23rd when Ukraine lost their main line.
Ozarianivka also lost its primary line of defense on the 23rd. All three of these towns have been up in the air for the past 5 days. I think this is why I keep getting conflicting reports about how the front line hasn’t moved but also Russia is taking control of things. I dunno.
I still have no confirmation Russia took Ozarianivka. The last I heard Zelenopillya is in very bad shape but Ukraine still held on a bit. Andriivka I haven’t heard anything about lately, not sure. Kurdyumivka is still in Ukrainian control, but not great.
Wagner commands their soldiers from the top down very strictly. They are told what to do on a moment to moment basis. Lay down, fan out, move up to that tree, fire on this location, etc. They are controlled by drones who fly above them. It is kinda like a real time strategy game.
If you don’t follow the command you’re given, they kill you. The commands are very simple because they don’t trust you. You can only withdraw if you are commanded to do so.
The HQ has feeds from many different drones, and can see what is going on in many places at once, and they order all of the groups to move and behave. The purpose is to probe for weaknesses and then put as many resources at that weak point as possible as quickly as possible.
It is true, Russia makes small gains south of Bakhmut. Several villages are contested (I haven’t updated my map yet).
It is false, Russia does not succeed in Marinka. They are just lying, nothing really more to say about that.
Regarding Bakhmut, the ground Russia has taken, much of it they have entered previously before being driven back out. Andriivka, for example. They are conducting suicide attacks (I point you to the video of the guy committing suicide in the attack, they take this literally).
Ukraine also suffers high casualties south of Bakhmut. By this, I mean all towns south of Opytne. In Opytne, Russia tries to attack but cannot. Maybe they have given up? Now they are trying to go around Opytne to reach the highway to the west to cut off reinforcements.
I got no news about Bakhmut from any of my contacts today, which likely means the situation is pretty shit. Last I heard, Russia was pretty desperately trying to break through kurdyumivka, but they had little to no progress. Russians had some progress toward Klishchiivka.
But the advance toward Klishchiivka was described to me as “temporary”. Russia is trying to break into Opytne, but beyond a part of the town being a gray area they cannot get a foothold. I heard the attacks are getting weaker and more desperate.
Last I heard, this crossroad is in Ukrainian control.