Ryan Burge 📊 Profile picture
Nov 28 3 tweets 2 min read
The drop in fertility over the last decade is primarily among Democrats.

Peak parenting in 2010:
65% of Republicans in their late 30s were parents.
62% of Democrat

Peak parenting in 2020:
60% of Republicans in their late 30s were parents.
50% of Democrat
Here's another look at this.

There's a not a single age bracket I can find where Democrats are more likely to be parents of minor children than Republicans.

Really telling stat: 25% of Democrats aged 25-30 are parents to minor children. It's 41% of Republicans.
Some folks have been asking for this with just white respondents.

The Republican trend lines look almost exactly the same.

For white Democrats, peak parenting was ~62% in 2010. In 2020, it was ~48%.

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More from @ryanburge

Sep 14
New podcast episode of @HomebrewedXnty with the incomparable @trippfuller where we go through five graphs I've made over the last few months. And engage in what the kids call "hot takes."

I will thread the five graphs below for reference.

trippfuller.com/2022/09/14/rya…
People like to paint people who want to totally ban abortion as from the far, far right of the political spectrum.

Well - they seem downright moderate or even left of center on certain issues.

Latter-day Saints are a lot more likely to have children than atheists or agnostics.

This is where I make the very controversial statement, "I think the vast majority of people should have children."

Read 6 tweets
Jul 7
In May of 2021, Gallup asked ~1000 people if they were pro-choice, pro-life or something else.

They asked the exact same question in May of 2022, after the Dobbs opinion leaked.

The share who said they were pro-choice rose from 49% to 55%. But look at the subgroup shifts

🧵
The share of men identifying as pro-choice rose 3 pts. For women, it jumped nine points (52%->61%).

In terms of age, the share of 18-29 year olds who say they are pro-choice rose FIFTEEEN points in 12 months (56% to 71%). 10 points among those 30 to 49 years old.
For those with a college degree, there was essentially no change in pro-choice percentage.

For those who never went to college, pro-choice went from 33 to 48%!

In terms of income, six figure household showed a small *drop* in pro-choice % (61% to 58%).
Read 6 tweets
Jun 27
New from me @Religion_Public - who are those who were cheering the Dobbs decision last week?

First - it's important to point out that 1/5 Americans want to make abortion illegal in the United States.

But what are their demographics, religion, and ideology?

THREAD (1/5). Image
I was pretty shocked to learn that the racial composition of those opposed to abortion looks almost exactly like the racial composition of the United States overall.

White folks are not overrepresented in the anti-abortion subset of the population. Image
In terms of religion, the gaps aren't as large as many people would assume.

Catholics are 18% of America and 20% of the anti-abortion subset.

Protestants are 12 points different (46% vs. 34%), while the nones are 21% vs 34%. But no other differences to speak of. Image
Read 5 tweets
May 3
I'm just going to throw a bunch of graphs in this thread about views of abortion.

Here's a good place to start - allow abortion for any reason.

1977 vs 2021
Entire Sample: 37% to 54%
Democrats: 35% to 71%
Independents: 35% to 44%
Republicans: 39% to 34%
There were some *huge* shifts among Democrats when it comes to abortion in the following scenarios between 2016 and 2021.

The couple is not married
2016: 53% in favor
2021: 70%

Cannot afford more children
2016: 56%
2021: 72%

Wants no more children
2016: 58%
2021: 74%
Here those six scenarios among the three types of white Christians - Evangelicals, mainline, and Catholic.

There is overwhelming support for access to abortion in the case of rape, the mother's health, and serious defect in the child among all three of these groups.
Read 22 tweets
Nov 2, 2021
Something's broken in the new GSS data

Share in 2018 vs 2021:
Evangelicals: 22.5% to 13.3%
Mainline: 10.8% to 11.4%
B. Prot: 11.4% to 6.4%
Catholic: 23% to 21.3%
Jewish: 1.6% to 1.5%
Other Faith: 6.2% to 7.6%
Nones: 23.1% to 28.4%
Unclassified: 6.5% to 15.8%

COVID ruined this.
This is with the other weight supplied by the GSS. It doesn't fix the problem.

Somehow a lot more people chose odd responses for religious affiliation.

But, that impacted black Protestants and evangelicals. And no other tradition. This is going to take a while to sort out.
This thread is just watching me flail now.

I broke non-denoms away from the evangelical category here.

This data says that there are 2x non-denoms vs evangelicals in 2021.

That's non-sensical.

We're in the bad place.
Read 5 tweets
Dec 11, 2020
Here's a myth that won't die and really needs to.

"Evangelicals who aren't that devout are the ones who like Trump the most."

Fact: Trump's support among evangelicals is the highest among those who attend church the most. This has been true in every survey I've looked at. Image
And just so I show my work....

This is two party vote choice in 2016 and presidential approval in both 2017 and 2018 from the CCES among evangelicals.

In every single case, evangelicals who attended church more than once a week were the strongest Trump supporters. ImageImageImage
And add @socofthesacred to the mix, too.

The total sample size of the CCES 2016-2019 is over 160,000 respondents, as well. So, this is about as reliable as surveys get.

Read 4 tweets

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