Max Mergenthaler Profile picture
Nov 28 β€’ 7 tweets β€’ 6 min read
Today at @nixtlainc: fast and interpretable forecasting for multiple seasonalities. β²οΈπŸ”Ž

This is exciting news for data scientists in the Python ecosystem. 🧡
#reinventforecasting
Time series are the operational DNA of the world. 🧬

Most business data (sales, demand, electricity load, sensors) is stored in tabular format with time indexes.

Most forecasting models in Python are only suited for single seasonal data. ⚠️
#reinventforecasting
However, many time series have multiple seasonalities.

Multiple seasonality is traditionally present in data sampled at a low frequency. πŸ’‘

For example, hourly electricity data exhibits daily and weekly seasonality. πŸŽ„πŸ•Žβ„οΈ

#reinventforecasting
Traditional models are only able to model one seasonality.

Multiple Seasonal-Trend decompositions with LOESS (MSTL) by @kbandara164, @robjhyndman, and
@CBergmeir was created for that specific challenge.

But until now, MSTL was only available in #RStats

#reinventforecasting
Now you can import MSTL from @nixtlainc's StatsForecast open-source library:

Features
πŸ’¬ @scikit_learn syntax
⚑️ Native support for #spark, @raydistributed, and
@dask_dev
πŸ“ˆ Predict trend with: ARIMA, Theta, or ETS

#reinventforecasting
MSTL use cases:
πŸ§‘β€πŸ”¬ Run a comparison with popular libraries: github.com/Nixtla/statsfo…
πŸ“ˆ Forecast next-day electricity demand: nixtla.github.io/statsforecast/…
πŸ”Œ Predict peaks in the market and reduce electricity bills: nixtla.github.io/statsforecast/…

#reinventforecasting
Stay tuned for tomorrow’s release. πŸŽ‰

If you have been waiting for a reproducible comparison between deep learning and statics for time series, you will love it. πŸ”₯

#reinventforecasting

β€’ β€’ β€’

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More from @MergenthalerMax

Nov 25
@nixtlainc started last year as a side project

Today we reached 1 million downloadsπŸŽ‰

Our goal is to shake the time series industry and make state-of-the-art algorithms available for everyone πŸ”₯

This is how we got there

🧡1/11

#reinventforecasting
@nixtlainc's ecosystem consists (now) of 5 #python libraries

Focus: speed, scalability, and accuracy πŸš€

Some features:
* @scikit_learn syntax
* Native support for #spark, @raydistributed, and @dask_dev
* Models! Eg #arima, #LightGBM, #NeuralNetworks, #transformers πŸ€–

2/11 Image
We are really proud of the open-source adoption

Repos from Amazon, Mozilla, and DataBricks use us as dependencies πŸ„β€β™‚οΈ

We have contributions from people working at H20, Microsoft, Google, Facebook, SalesForce, Oracle, Shopify, AT&T, Blueyonder, Stanford, MIT and UCL πŸ™

3/11
Read 12 tweets

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