Thread by @kevinbonham

Just looking at how few of Labor's seat wins are even remotely close it becomes clear that Labor has won this Victorian election by an enormous margin. #VicVotes

Assuming Labor wins at least one of Northcote and Preston (it may very well win both) that puts it on 52. To even get it out of majority just via 2PP swing in classic seats from there currently takes a 2PP swing of 6.6%.

Labor could have got a majority with a 2PP of 47.6 (though likely would have dropped a few more to the Greens if doing that badly). This is extraordinary. The hinge seat for majority based off classic 2PPs is Sunbury or Box Hill.

On current numbers to win or even tie by winning 2PP seats off Labor the Coalition needed to do 8.6 points better, ie 54.5% 2PP. Here some might have dropped to L-NP supporting indies, but the pendulum will just be ghastly for the Coalition.

The whole demographic realignment thing is playing out strongly in Labor's favour here. It's pushing seats that used to be around the state 2PP up the pendulum and giving Labor a structural advantage. I'll have an article about where this all ends up when figures are final.

This election was never within a million miles of a hung parliament.

The media have so woefully misread this election in search of hype about a close result and/or right-wing reader-service that they have given Daniel Andrews a licence to treat them like bugs for four years.

There's a lesson here. I don't think anyone anticipated just how much Labor was going to outperform in seat terms. But if you try to second-guess the polls and jump the wrong way you end not merely surprised but very wrong.

Variant of Nate's First Rule.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861945983143469056

( #notallmedia of course. Collectively. There were exceptions, at least at article level.)

This chart illustrates the issue. Given that a few of Labor's 2CP marginal wins were vs Greens there has been a mass migration of ALP margins towards the 10% level (the range about 4-8 points above the state 2PP).

https://twitter.com/benraue/status/1597723042297569280

We'll see what the final result looks like but Victoria could be headed for a Lower House pendulum with a naturally developed skew to one side and serious legitimacy issues (like SA used to have).