Thread by @JBelcourt73

Why Bakhmut? Its a common question as people try to figure out what Russia hopes to gain from a battle that now resembles a WWI battlefield right down to the mud and unburied bodies. I am going to try and answer that question, or at least pose a reasonable explanation. Firstly

there are 3 battles you never want to fight, though all 3 are very common in military history. 1. The battle your enemy wants you to fight. 2. The battle where your enemy is. 3. The battle you have to win. All 3 require you to give up valuable tools like the initiative, room to

maneuver, and time. For the Russians Bakhmut has become all 3. The battle started for rather simple reasons. After the Russian breakthrough at Popasnaya Bakhmut was simply the next blocking position taken up by the Ukrainians. Thats where the enemy (of the Russians) was so that

is where Russia hit them. Russia at the start of the battle still enjoyed a massive edge in artillery, the Ukrainian Army's JFO appeared to be exhausted after the battle for Sievierodonetsk and Russia appeared to have momentum after achieving its first breakthrough in months.

Yet despite being exhausted, nearly out of artillery ammo and out numbered the Ukrianian Army refused to budge and was determined to make the invaders refight the kind of slogging bloody battle seen at Seivierodonetsk and Mariupol: street by street, house by house down to room by

room. This checked the Russian advance, has stopped them cold for months and the threat of ruin from the invaders breakout at Popasnaya floated away like dust on the wind. But, that required Ukraine to send in a lot of combat power. For Russia she was now on the horns of a

dilemma. Bakhmut is where the Ukrainians were, but its WHERE the Ukrainians WERE. It went from a pursuit to a strength v strength contest. Second, Western supplied arms started arriving in numbers. M777's, HIMARS, supplies of ammunition all of which worked to rapidly reduce the

Russian ability to mass troops or fires. Given that the attacker generally needs a 3:1 advantage this meant the Russian's were also now fighting the battle their enemy wanted them too. Now the smart move when the enemy suddenly gets the upper hand in a fight is to stop fighting

and look for opportunity elsewhere. The Russian's did not do this. Kherson and Kharkiv Oblast were under threat, and advances elsewhere had been stopped cold. Bakhmut at least offered the appearance of a battle that could be won eventually, by attrition if nothing else. Russian

logistics however were not up to the task. First actual PMC troops, then penal units and mobliks and more recently Kadyrovites and troops pulled from other sectors are being shoved in, but they are not being supported. Yet despite the fire house of manpower being pushed in the

Ukrainians refuse to budge which brings up number 3. Russia is now stuck in a battle she must win. Winter is here, tomorrow is Dec 1 and the climate is now the enemy. The Ukrainians have interior lines, buildings to shelter in, supplies and the ability to rotate troops. Things

for them are in the embraceable suck column. The Russian's are trying to live in holes with little food, no support and no ability to move, relieve or reinforce with officers and commanders staying well back from the mudscape and mudtrolls they are commanding over. That kind of

suck cannot be embraced for long, even without smelling your buddies' bodies rotting a few feet away while you wonder if the next drone or artillery strike will get you before some jackass with a warm coat miles away orders you too attack again. This is why I say this is where

the Russian Army will shatter. We are already seeing drone captured suicides by troops who have lost all hope and getting reports of firing squads and liquidators as the tool of choice by Russian commanders to keep troops on the line. So why Bakhmut? Because it looked like a

winnable fight when it started and commanders, even good ones can get tunnel vision and the Russian's are not "good ones", but now the Russian Army must get into the shelter of the town or General Winter will slaughter them. They know this, Napoleon faced the same problem when he

go to Moscow. Given the retreats from, Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv Oblast and the withdrawal from Kherson Putin is unlikely to allow the Russian army to pull back when it still appears they might be able to break into the town. This has the Russian army bogged down under fire in the

middle of giant kill box. This more than any other shows just how important western aid is. Votes to provide aid by @JohnBoozman, @SenTomCotton, @RepFrenchHill and other Western politicians allowed Ukraine to stop a Russian breakthrough effort cold and set up a battle where

Ukraine now holds the cards. it'ss not going to go all Ukraine's way. My feed is full of messages from Ukrainians mourning the loss of more and more soldiers. We have all seen the videos of the mud filled trenches and gloomy skies. Like a wounded animal, the Bear still has claws

and teeth. This is where we come in. Our giving to @MriyaAid, @U24_gov_ua, @UkraineAidOps, @LibertyUkraineF (@Teoyaomiquu's charity), @georgian_legion and @belwarriors has a direct impact on the battlefield. Helping the Ukrainian Army shatter the Russian Army or by helping

as many heroes as possible survive the battle to go back home to their families. You can also help those families and civilians trapped in areas being shelled by the Russians by giving to @3xR_team or @WCKitchen. Finally, of course, keep up the bonking. The Russian dis-info is

going to swing between: Bakhmut is about to fall to Bahkmut doesn't matter so keep the pressure up until the claim the defeat is another "goodwill gesture". Also next time you are listening in on @MriyaReport and you hear someone ask, "why Bakhmut"? hopefully now you will

already know a possible answer. Until Ukraine Wins On Ukraine's Terms: Slava Ukraini! #GenocideOfUkrainians #RussiaIsLosing #RussiaIsATerroristState #ukrainecounteroffensive #Ukrainewillwin @mfa_russia <--- still losing and now your troop's frozen toes are falling off.

@mfa_russia @threadreaderapp unroll please