Nick Bunker Profile picture
Nov 30 8 tweets 3 min read
October 2022 #JOLTS Report: Strong and steady

Job openings down to 10.3 million

Private sector quits rate flat at 2.9%

Total layoffs steady at 0.9%
The ratio of job openings to unemployed workers ticked down to 1.7 from 1.9 in September, continuing its moderation in 2022.

But it's still very elevated from pre-pandemic level. Image
The quits rate continued to moderate, but the pace of descent is not very rapid.

Continued strong levels of job switching would keep nominal wage growth robust. Image
Notable that the slowdown in quitting in Leisure and Hospitality and Retail Trade looks to be arresting. Might even be reversing in L&H! Image
Tech sector layoffs are grabbing headlines, but in total layoffs are still very low.

The layoffs and discharges rate has now been below the pre-pandemic low for 20 straight months. Image
Layoff rates across broad industry groups are below their Feb 2020 level with one exception: Information, the one that contains many tech companies. Image
You can also see that quitting, a sign of worker confidence, has take a dive in Information. Image
The relationship between unemployment and quitting has been returning to pre-pandemic relationship, but the trend paused in October. Image

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More from @nick_bunker

Nov 29
Slightly delayed by the holiday, here's the November @indeed US Labor Market Update.

This month's Spotlight: 3 wage and compensation-related graphs to track in 2023

hiringlab.org/2022/11/29/nov…
As we head into 2023, whether or not wages and compensation slow down and the extent to which they do is a critical concern for job seekers, employers, and policymakers.

/2
The outlook for wage and compensation growth is still blurry, so here are 3 graphs to track in the months ahead that might bring things into focus

/3
Read 12 tweets
May 18
'Unretirements' continue to rise. As of April 2022, 3.3% of workers who were retired a year earlier are now employed.
That means roughly 1.7 million people in the past year have left retirement and taken a job.
The majority of ‘unretirees’ are taking part-time positions. Over the past three months, roughly 56% of workers returning to work were in jobs that were part-time.
Read 4 tweets
May 15
Curious about their contention about job openings overshooting most in industries most sensitive to financial conditions.
Sure, lots of growth in manufacturing. But construction is a relative laggard.

'Other services', 'education and health' and 'leisure and hospitality' are very FCI sensitive? Image
Williams made a similar point in his speech this week, contending that the Fed's interest rate tools are equipped to deal with an "overheating' labor market since much of the excess in the goods sector. newyorkfed.org/newsevents/spe…
Read 4 tweets
Feb 4
HAHAHAHAHA

After we all expected a terrible payrolls number, payrolls up by 467,000 and unemployment rate at 4%
Huge revisions as well with the baseline update.

December 2021 growth is now 510k added when the first read was 211k. Nov growth up to 647k.
The unemployment rate went up, but that was driven by higher labor force participation.

Employment to population ratio is up to 59.7%
Read 12 tweets
Feb 1
🚨 📈 NEW from the @indeed Hiring Lab: the latest edition of our Job Search Survey.

January saw a tepid rise in job search as the new year began. hiringlab.org/2022/02/01/job…

/1
Active job search did rise from December to January. But given seasonal patterns of job search, it's hard to know if this is just the "usual" January increase or something more enduring.

/2 Image
The January pick up in job search was not broad based. In fact, the entire increase in active job search was non-urgent search among the employed.

/3 Image
Read 6 tweets
Feb 1
December 2021 #JOLTS:

📊 Job openings 'little changed' at 10.9 million

📉 Quits rate at 2.9%, private sector down to 3.2%

📉 Layoffs down to a new all time low of 0.8%
Openings up slightly in leisure and hospitality, suggesting that the decline in November was the beginning of a slide in demand.
Big drop in the ratio of unemployed workers per job opening.

As of December, there were roughly 58 unemployed workers per 100 job openings. Image
Read 10 tweets

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