The Beveridge Curve was thrust into the spotlight last year as served as a sparring ground for a fight over the possibility of a soft landing.

With job openings dropping for the third straight month, it’s time to return to Beveridge space. 🧵 We’re now a year on from the post-pandemic peak in the job openings rate. In March 2022, the openings rate was 7.4% and has dropped down to 5.8% as of March 2023.

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March 2023 #JOLTS Report:

The labor market continues to cool off

Job openings down to 9.6 million

Quits rate ticked down to 2.5%

Layoff rate up to 1.2% December 2020 was the last time the layoff rate was as high as it was in March.

Ahead of tomorrow's JOLTS report, here's the latest data from the @Indeed Job Postings Index:

Job postings continue to decline and are now down 5.7% month-over-month as of March 3rd. New postings are dropping as well, down 3.9% m-o-m.

/1 The pullback in postings this year has been stark, but the postings are still elevated compared to their pre-pandemic baseline.

Total postings are up 33%, new postings — those on Indeed for seven or fewer days — are up 52%.

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October 2022 #JOLTS Report: Strong and steady

Job openings down to 10.3 million

Private sector quits rate flat at 2.9%

Total layoffs steady at 0.9% The ratio of job openings to unemployed workers ticked down to 1.7 from 1.9 in September, continuing its moderation in 2022.

But it's still very elevated from pre-pandemic level.

Slightly delayed by the holiday, here's the November @indeed US Labor Market Update.

This month's Spotlight: 3 wage and compensation-related graphs to track in 2023

hiringlab.org/2022/11/29/nov… As we head into 2023, whether or not wages and compensation slow down and the extent to which they do is a critical concern for job seekers, employers, and policymakers.

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'Unretirements' continue to rise. As of April 2022, 3.3% of workers who were retired a year earlier are now employed. That means roughly 1.7 million people in the past year have left retirement and taken a job.

Curious about their contention about job openings overshooting most in industries most sensitive to financial conditions.

https://twitter.com/michaelsderby/status/1525893735262953473

Sure, lots of growth in manufacturing. But construction is a relative laggard.

'Other services', 'education and health' and 'leisure and hospitality' are very FCI sensitive?

HAHAHAHAHA

After we all expected a terrible payrolls number, payrolls up by 467,000 and unemployment rate at 4% Huge revisions as well with the baseline update.

December 2021 growth is now 510k added when the first read was 211k. Nov growth up to 647k.

🚨 📈 NEW from the @indeed Hiring Lab: the latest edition of our Job Search Survey.

January saw a tepid rise in job search as the new year began. hiringlab.org/2022/02/01/job…

/1 Active job search did rise from December to January. But given seasonal patterns of job search, it's hard to know if this is just the "usual" January increase or something more enduring.

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December 2021 #JOLTS:

📊 Job openings 'little changed' at 10.9 million

📉 Quits rate at 2.9%, private sector down to 3.2%

📉 Layoffs down to a new all time low of 0.8% Openings up slightly in leisure and hospitality, suggesting that the decline in November was the beginning of a slide in demand.

Remote work is going to stick around. One of the big questions for 2022 is how much further can it extend?

The latest @indeed data shows demand for remote work and interest in those positions continue to pick up.

/1 At the end of 2021, just over 9% of job postings on @indeed mentioned remote terms.

That's an almost 240% increase over the 2019 average of 2.7%.

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Hey now! Wages and salaries grew by 1.5% OVER THE QUARTER in Q3! That's roughly 6% annualized growth. That is a monster number for ECI. Annual rates closer to 3% to 3.5% were good numbers pre-COVID

Oof! Only 235k jobs added in August, but the unemployment rate ticked down to 5.2% ZERO JOBS added in leisure and hospitality. 41.5k jobs lost in food services and drinking places.

That has delta variant written all over it

New from @indeed: results from the first wave of our new Job Seeker Survey.

Many job seekers don't feel a sense of urgency right now, but that could change in the months ahead. hiringlab.org/2021/06/29/ind…

/1 Questions abound right now about labor supply. Why aren't workers snapping up all these new jobs out there? To help shed some light, the Hiring Lab is starting a new monthly survey looking at job seeker activity.

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April 2021 #JOLTS: WHOA, those headline numbers!

📈 Job openings up to **9.3 MILLION**
📈 Quits rate up to an all-time high of 2.7% Job openings are now almost a third above their Feb 2020 level.

That's, uh, a LOT of demand

And while leisure and hospitality was the jobs growth leader this month, employment in those industries is still down 20% from a year before. Your monthly reminder that the jobs gap is biggest for low-wage industries.

Payrolls up 379k, U3 down a tick to 6.2% EPOP up a little bit to 57.6%.

Nice to see that go up, but not exactly a huge gain

#JOLTS: October 2020 Edition

Job openings up a bit to 6.65 million from 6.5 in Sept.

Quits were steady, but layoffs ticked up a bit. bls.gov/news.release/p… The ratio of unemployed workers per job opening dropped in Oct, across three different definitions.

#JOLTS August 2020 Edition:

Job openings edged down slightly! At 6.5 million

Layoffs and discharges down Not only are layoffs and discharges down, they are at a series low!

Payrolls up 661k, U3 down to 7.9% People on temporary layoff down by 1.5 million to 4.6 million, permanent job loss unemployment up by 345k to 3.8 million

Wow, big drop in unemployment rate to 8.4%.

And that was for good reasons as LFPR went up.

EPOP up by 1.4 percentage points! Private-sector payrolls up by 1 million in August, had risen by 1.5 million in July, 4.7 in June. A continued deceleration