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Nov 30 • 7 tweets • 4 min read
Job openings and quits both continued to edge down in October. Layoffs remain extremely low. #JOLTS
DATA: bls.gov/news.release/j…
There were 10.3 million job openings at the end of October, down from 10.7 million in September and a peak of close to 12 million early this year. Still very high by historical standards, but now clearly coming down. Image
There were 1.7 open jobs for every unemployed worker in October. The ratio had ticked up in September, but is now back to where it was at the end of the summer.
Fed officials have repeatedly cited the nearly 2:1 ratio as evidence of the very tight labor market. Image
Just over 4 million workers voluntarily quit their jobs in October, down a hair from September and continuing the gradual decline from the "Great Resignation" peak last year. Image
Note that while openings and quits are both still elevated, openings are *much* more so relative to their prepandemic averages.
As I wrote last month, the two measures tell subtly different stories about how hot the job market is.
nytimes.com/2022/11/03/bri… Image
Tech industry layoffs have gotten a lot of attention lately. But tech is a small part of the labor market. Overall layoffs remain extremely low. (Showing this chart two ways: headline, and truncated to remove the huge spike at the start of the pandemic.) ImageImage
As @DanielBZhao notes, openings are above prepandemic levels in every major industry. But year-over-year, they're down substantially in several major industries, including some that saw the biggest increase last year.
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More from @bencasselman

Ben Casselman Profile picture
Dec 2
U.S. employers added 263,000 jobs in November and the unemployment rate held steady at 3.7%.
Full coverage: nytimes.com/live/2022/12/0…
Data: bls.gov/news.release/e…
September revised down, October revised up. Nets out to a modest (-23k) downward revision.
Average earnings rose 18 cents/hour (+0.6%). Up 5.1% over the past year. Wages for non-supervisors up 19 cents/hour (+0.7%).
Read 11 tweets
Ben Casselman Profile picture
Dec 1
For the Morning newsletter today, I looked at how higher interest rates are playing out very differently for homeowners on either side of the Atlantic.
nytimes.com/2022/12/01/bri…
In the U.S., most homeowners have 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. That partly insulates them from the impact of both rising rates and high inflation: Their housing costs are fixed.
Different story in the U.K., where most mortgages carry much shorter fixed terms. Millions of homeowners there will face sharply higher housing costs in coming years. Some will have to move; many more will have to cut back spending.
More from @eshelouise:
nytimes.com/2022/11/17/bus…
Read 9 tweets
Ben Casselman Profile picture
Dec 1
October income/spending data:
After-tax income: +0.7% (+0.4% inflation-adjusted)
Consumer spending: +0.8% (+0.5%)
Consumer prices: +0.3% (6% y/y)
Prices, ex-food/energy: +0.2% (5% y/y)
Data: bea.gov/news/2022/pers…
The continued strength of real consumer spending is pretty remarkable. Accelerating over the past few months as inflation has eased. Image
Even more remarkable when you look at it against its prepandemic trend. Image
Read 11 tweets
Ben Casselman Profile picture
Nov 30
Third-quarter G.D.P. growth was revised up modestly, to +2.9% (annualized) from +2.6% in the initial estimate. The details look a bit stronger too: Final sales to private domestic purchasers (a measure of underling demand) now +0.5% annualized, vs. +0.1% in the initial estimate.
On the other hand, Gross Domestic Income (an alternate measure of economic output) rose just 0.3% annualized in Q3. (This is the first estimate for Q3 G.D.I.)
The weakness in GDI in Q3 is notable because for much of this year, economists were pointing to GDI as evidence that the economy was stronger than GDP suggested. But revisions changed that story quite a bit, and now GDI has been weaker than GDP for two straight quarters. Image
Read 9 tweets
Ben Casselman Profile picture
Nov 1
Job openings rose in September, to 10.7 million. Still only partly offsets the big drop in August.
Quits rate held steady at 2.7%.
Layoffs remain very low (and dipped back down slightly).
#JOLTS
bls.gov/news.release/j…
Job openings edged back up in September, which isn't a big surprise given the huge drop in August. (Aug. also revised up, but only slightly.)
Basic story seems unchanged: Openings are falling, but from a *very* high level. Area chart showing level of job openings in millions.
The uptick in job openings pushed back up the ratio of openings per unemployed worker, though it remains a bit below the 2:1 ratio we saw at the peak. Still lots of jobs out there! Line chart showing the ratio of job openings to unemployed w
Read 6 tweets
Ben Casselman Profile picture
Oct 7
The U.S. economy added 263k jobs in September and the unemployment rate fell back to 3.5 percent.
Data: bls.gov/news.release/e…
Full coverage: nytimes.com/live/2022/10/0…
August unrevised at +315k jobs. July's very strong gains revised up another 11k to +537k.
Labor force shrank slightly (-57k), participation rate ticks down a tenth, following August's big jump. These month-to-month changes are noisy, so this seems consistent with a gradual rebound in the labor force.
Read 24 tweets

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