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Chhirag Kedia Profile picture
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Dec 1 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
As this is a question several people asked me, hence posting it as a thread.

I rarely follow any rule, I believe in my abilities to identify character. It makes me able to make decisions in confusing situations too.

#IPOBases are volatile in nature. What I saw before (1/n)
entering this stock was 3 days out of which on 18th Nov. gave a strong recovery and closed strongly. Next two days saw a volatility contraction in form of inside bars.

If a stock is not falling down, it is first sign of a probable recovery. Anything which is not going down (2/n)
shows its line of least resistance is not downwards, but have higher chance of it having upwards (which confirms through breakout).

Volatility is both - a trader's friend and the biggest foe. Foe when it is directionless, and friend when it expands in one direction and (3/n)
contracts in other. This is what forms a trend.

When a setup which has a volatile nature is showing volatility contraction in one direction, it has higher chances of expanding in another. So, it has higher chances to move up.

Stocks which offer value, doesn't wait too (4/n)
long for you. Hence, judge action on behavior rather than rules. Moreover shallow depth in #IPOBase is the key to success and needs less time to breakout. (5/5)

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More from @swing_ka_sultan

Chhirag Kedia Profile picture
Nov 21
Srikanth, market doesn't work in that way. What we are seeing on the name of 52 week high etc is just an effect, an indicator of demand.

Question is what generates demand? Think on it - why you buy a stock? You buy it because you believe stock will go up. Hence behind your (1/n)
action is your belief, your conviction which is the cause behind creating demand. Now think, where this conviction comes from?

For you, it might comes from technical aspects but for institutions, who makes these charts, the reason to buy or hold a stock is only value. (2/n)
If the stock offers value, whether in terms of price comparative to current assets (like P/BV or P/E) or future value (Growth).

As a technical analyst, you are reading the actions of these institutional players and indirectly acting on the value only.

So trend is (3/n)
Read 9 tweets
Chhirag Kedia Profile picture
Nov 21
#SA_Notes for 21-11-2022

- Market is bear grip - both in long and short term.

- Volume still staying around 0.45, not suggesting any extreme. There is a high chance to see a continuation of the current situation for some more time.

- Bull swing is not yet around the (1/n)
corner. Don't be in hurry to label any green day a start of a bull swing. Whenever market will stretch in shorter term time frame, it will give a green day or a strong opening, only to be sold off later. Beware of bull traps.

Such actions further tighten the bear grip. (2/n)
- US had a gap up start on Friday only to be cool off later. It lacks FOMO and FOMO is the life blood of any uptrend. When a beaten down market first comes into bull run, it sustains the advances rather than giving it up.

- Preferable strategy to trade in this market is (3/n)
Read 4 tweets
Chhirag Kedia Profile picture
Nov 21
यदि हमारे शास्त्रों में कोई सबसे दिव्य ज्ञान दिया गया है तो वो है 'अहम् ब्रह्मास्मि'! तुम में स्वयं ब्रह्म होने की क्षमता है, किंतु ब्रह्म होने की अनिवार्य शर्त एक ही है - आस्था की समाप्ति।

मुझे नहीं मालूम नास्तिकता इतनी अप्रिय क्यों है, क्यों इतनी नकारात्मक मानी जाती है। (1/n)
जनतंत्र की भांति शायद यह इतना आधुनिक विचार है जिसके लिए मनुष्यता अभी तैयार नहीं है, उसे संभालने में सक्षम नहीं है। आस्तिकता आस्था से निकलती है, आस्था में प्रश्न की संभावना नहीं, केवल समर्पण की है। यहां केवल भक्त और भगवान का संबंध संभव है।

नास्तिकता प्रश्न का अधिकार देती (2/n)
है। यहां भक्त भी कोई नहीं है और भगवान भी कोई नहीं है। यहां संबंध बराबरी का है। यह तुम्हारे ब्रह्म बनने का प्रथम सोपान है।

किंतु यदि आस्तिक बनना ही है तो नरेंद्र की तरह प्रश्न करो, और जब रामकृष्ण परमहंस मिल जाएं तो स्वयं को समर्पित करके विवेकानंद बन जाओ। (3/3)
Read 4 tweets
Chhirag Kedia Profile picture
Nov 20
Hi Srikanth, you asked a very good and valid question. And I will love to revert on it.

First thing is, you need to understand that TA & a trading system are two different things. TA doesn't makes money, your system does.

TA just tells you that there are higher odds of (1/n)
something happening over another thing.

If you read the bible of TA - John J. Murphy's Technical Analysis of the Financial Market, you won't be able to make money from it, as it might tell you about all sort of studies that can tell about having higher odds of one outcome (2/n)
over another but there is much more left to be addressed to make it an implementable trading strategy.

This is the difference between a setup and strategy, which we often use interchangeably, but they are two different things. Setup is part of strategy. For example, the (3/n)
Read 13 tweets
Chhirag Kedia Profile picture
Nov 19
Much thanks bro. TBH, I want to change the complete way how technical analysis is done & taught in programs like CMT - I want to make it a study of the psychology of market participants rather than keeping it limited to drawing lines and spotting patterns and hoping them to (1/n)
work.

It makes me really disappointed when people approach me and ask whether it is a right setup. Is it a right CNH? Is it a right VCP?

They are living in illusion where they forgot the cause, and are thinking that effects they seeing is everything.

This SHOULD change. (2/n)
But this is a herculean task, not easy for a low profile person like me. Because people don't want real knowledge which works, they want well presented knowledge which is as easy as drawing lines.

But there is a cost of simplification. WON did all research, simplified it (3/n)
Read 4 tweets
Chhirag Kedia Profile picture
Nov 19
Color of a small size candle (size is high - low) doesn't matter much - whether red or green. With big volume it can be interpreted in 2 ways -

1) Inter institutional transaction - one major shareholder sold, and other one bought it from him. As we are not seeing any (1/n)
price movement, it means no share came into public to be absorbed.

Problem arises when institution sells and public is supposed to absorb the supply.

For example this is Dixon on 25th July, 2019, almost a month before the huge move triggered. (2/n) Image
2) Distribution - This is a concept of Richard Wyckoff's VSA. If the price is in a pro-long trend and suddenly you start seeing price becoming reluctant to go up but volume is increasing, and it happens consistently for several candles, it represents distribution. (3/n)
Read 6 tweets

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