Thread by @JBelcourt73

Let's talk casualty care. The UMOD has Russian deaths at 90K and if they are still tracking along with Russia's own MOD admissions that got leaked several months ago then this number is at least in the ball park or reality. It certainly squares with the images we see coming from

Bakhmut. Those types of trench based positional fights chew up men. The provision of the M30A1 MLRS rocket certainly won't help Russia stop the bleeding... On the other side there is the (corrected) claim that Ukraine has suffered 100K casualties: dead, wounded, missing, and KIA.

With later speculation that the real numbers are 10K dead and 40K seriously wounded. Now none of those numbers are real but they do offer insights. 90K Russian deaths begs a serious question: how many wounded. The traditional ratio of dead to wounded was 1:3. I think that might

be too generous to the Russians. Caring for casualties is much more complex than for other traumas. The first step is selfcare, then your buddy, unit medic, battalion aid station, field hospital, evacuation hospital, definitive care, rehabilitation. The US is the absolute master

of this system with a current ratio of 1:10. Though again the numbers hide things. We don't know how many of those 10 had real life-threatening bleeds, diseases, environmental injuries and penetrating traumas. Regardless the US system is really good thanks to near limitless

funding when it comes to no one left behind. The Russian's not so much. I think the 1:3 ratio might be too generous to the Russians. When officers call troopers disposable and hoard food no part of the casualty care program is going to be functioning well. I generally use a 1:2

ratio but honestly it could be 1:1 or even be inverted. Its a bad deal to be a wounded Russian. From worthless chest plates and IFAKS to no one is coming to get you, to infections even if you do get the bleeding stopped, bad nutrition, always being wet and cold its bad all around

Generally though is 90K dead then another 180-270k wounded for a total loss to date of 360K. That is 3x the initial invasion force.Of those wounded almost all are going to be lightly wounded and likely stuck back into the meat grinder to be wounded again or killed on the next

spin of the wheel. The serious wounds are just dead a bit later than right now because they don't make it out in time. Now lets look at the Ukrainian numbers specifically the 10K dead and 40k seriously wounded. Thats a 1:4 ratio where it matters. Do I trust those numbers? No,

but I do trust that ratio. So plug what ever number in for the dead you want 1 to 100K plus but then apply that ratio. Why do I trust it? Because I have been part of several drives to buy tourniquets and IFAKS and seen other drives and heard US announcements providing modern

helmets and chest plates designed to stop penetrating traumas. For non-penetrating traumas that result in heavy bleeds like limb injuries the quick application of a tourniquet stop the clock on the golden hour. You can't bleed out if you are not bleeding. Even if it takes all day

the tactical unit has more time to get the soldier evacuated where he can start climbing the care tree that sees an eventual discharge from a rehabilitation program. I know the HIMARS gets a lot of press and I, as an Arkansan am extremely proud of the work my fellows are doing in

Camden. But the aid provided by votes taken by @JohnBoozman, @SenTomCotton, and @RepFrenchHill include a lot of personal protective and medical gear that is saving lives. Likewise the various charities like @MriyaAid, @U24_gov_ua, @UkraineAidOps, and @LibertyUkraineF and

@3xR_team provided more including things like sock and sleeping bags to help ward off environmental injuries but going all the way up to getting seriously wounded soldiers to definitive care and rehabilitation services. Ukraine can't save everyone, but they are trying. If you

have donated to something specifically designed to save the lives of wounded or exposed Ukrainian Defenders, thank you. If you have not please do. Of course, the donations can go both ways. Donations to @georgian_legion and @belwarriors help keep the Russian ratio in the toilet.

A final thought on todays essay. The Russian's are making hay out of the "uncorrected" claim that Ukraine has suffered 100K casualties. Please feel free to bonk it with this essay especially if you are a #NAFO #FELLA but also be cognizant that 1:4 is also a great big giant fail.

Ukraine can't save everyone and many of those they do save will face life long disabilities and even those who do not need saving will finish this war with ghosts and scars. Not just the soldiers but the kids, wives and grandmothers living under fear of missile attack. This war

is one of genocidal conquest. Every single day I see a new Ukrainian face go across my feed... Another voice silenced forever as part of the #GenocideOfUkrainians. #RussiaIsATerroristState and she must be held to account. Until she is keep giving and bonking on our way to victory

Until Ukraine Wins On Ukraine's Terms: Slava Ukraini! #RussiaIsLosing #UkraineRussianWar #ukrainecounteroffensive @mfa_russia <--- still losing and how long can you afford zinc lined coffins and grieving mothers?

@mfa_russia @threadreaderapp unroll please