Thread by @DefMon3

Update🧵December 771st

The presentation today is brought to by Igor Strelkov, it seems he still have not come out of the closet.

h/t @TuiteroMartin
Visit interactive map for more details and explanations:
scribblemaps.com/maps/view/Oper…

Yesterdays thread

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1598030043904892928

Shelling locations reported by the Ukrainian general staff today. It seems there are 3 hot spots, Svatove, Siversk and Donetsk. This does not mean much in reality, Bakhmut takes a lot of space and reduces the density.

Weather
Winter is coming. In both the north and the south.

https://twitter.com/davidhelms570/status/1598305095988674560

Svatove
The AFU repulsed attacks in the area of Novoselivs'ke and Stel'makhivka. I believe remains of the RU 1st Guards Tank Army operates in this area and they still seem to have some nice tanks, possibly still some T-90Ms.

RuAF Fight hard to keep the Kupyansk river crossing in range of artillery, this makes it hard for the AFU to establish logistic hubs on the east side of the Oskil for the Kupyansk->Svatove effort. 20km range indicated by red dashed circles.

As illustrated by the image in the previous tweet, RuAF have the crossing in Kupyansk in artillery range and are shelling it.

Wargonzo reported the AFU have crossed the P66 in the Krasnorichens'ke direction.

Siversk-Bakhmut
The AFU repulsed attacks around Bilohorivka and Yakovlivka. The area east of Siversk is key for the Russians to hold, losing it will put Kreminna and the supply road from Luhansk to Svatove in danger.

Bakhmut
The AFU replused attacks around Bakhmut and Kurdyumivka according to the morning report by Ukrainian General staff. I still consider Kurdyumivka contested.

These image emerged today. One images show a sign which say 4km to Kurdyumivka, and the other is located in the very south part of town. Image 3 show where image 2 is located, the very south side of Kurdyumivka.

Additionally, yesterday wargonzo reported about wagner entering Kurdyumivka from the south, plus the Ukrainian general staff stated this morning they repulsed an attack around Kurdyumivka. Satellite images also show fires in the town today, that alone does not mean much.

Another thing to consider is the wagner channels behavior. In july they posted a video of them by the Novoluhans'ke sign. It took them 2-3 weeks before they actually captured the town.

https://twitter.com/kargolow/status/1551557878846312450

These things combined made me decide to keep Kurdyumivka as contested until further evidence emerges.

This video emerged today of another failed attack on Bakhmut by the RuAF.

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1598212028258480129

Donetsk
The AFU repulsed attacks around Kam'yanka, Vodyane, Pervomais'ke, Krasnohorivka and Marinka
It seems on the Russians their plan is to level the ground west of Donetsk to create "Lebensraum". Shelling have intensified in this area.

Look at the buildings in the beginning of this video, that is why it get impossible to defend a town after a while. All cover is gone. Then it's better to move back and let the Russians stay in the rubble. Kind of like letting them sleep in the wet spot

https://twitter.com/PaulJawin/status/1598352165478825984

No father news for the rest of the frontline.

I see I fat fingered the date. I almost posted it as Nov 1st, but changed it last minute. Unfortunately no edit button for me.

There are a lot of people posting about RU withdrawal of "some" units from Zapo region.
What most accounts wont tell you is the next part of the statement:

"Thus, units based in the local police station and one of the educational institutions left Mykhailivka"