🧵 My “One Thread to Rule Them All” for $BEAM
Attempting to estimate revenues ‘til 2031
⚠️ Warning: This is VERY long
Figures are “Blue Sky Scenario”
At the end I’ll throw in more conservative estimates
🚨 If you love BEAM or #GeneEditing + #CRISPR be sure to LIKE & RETWEET!
Attempting to estimate revenues ‘til 2031
⚠️ Warning: This is VERY long
Figures are “Blue Sky Scenario”
At the end I’ll throw in more conservative estimates
🚨 If you love BEAM or #GeneEditing + #CRISPR be sure to LIKE & RETWEET!
$BEAM-101
Approval: 1H 2027
Wave 1 Market: 25k US/14k EU
Market in 4 years: ~27k total ($CRSP/$BLUE)
Cost: ~2m
27’: 500 patients= 1b
28’: 2000 patients= 4b
29’: 1b (ESCAPE looming)
30’: zero
31’: zero
Approval: 1H 2027
Wave 1 Market: 25k US/14k EU
Market in 4 years: ~27k total ($CRSP/$BLUE)
Cost: ~2m
27’: 500 patients= 1b
28’: 2000 patients= 4b
29’: 1b (ESCAPE looming)
30’: zero
31’: zero
$BEAM-201
IND: Approved Today! 😊
Approval: mid 2027
Price: $375k (Wedbush)
Market is small, so little effect on revenue.
Success IMO will unlock hidden value. I see multiplex editing as a big weapon vs. cancer in 2030 and beyond!
IND: Approved Today! 😊
Approval: mid 2027
Price: $375k (Wedbush)
Market is small, so little effect on revenue.
Success IMO will unlock hidden value. I see multiplex editing as a big weapon vs. cancer in 2030 and beyond!
$BEAM-301
IND: 2H 2023
Approval: 2H 2027
Current Market: 1k US/1500 EU
Price: $1.89m US/$1.6m EU
(Wedbush)
27’: 100m (50 patients)
28’: 375m (200)
29’: 500m (250) peak
30’: 500m (250)
31’: 375m (200)
IND: 2H 2023
Approval: 2H 2027
Current Market: 1k US/1500 EU
Price: $1.89m US/$1.6m EU
(Wedbush)
27’: 100m (50 patients)
28’: 375m (200)
29’: 500m (250) peak
30’: 500m (250)
31’: 375m (200)
$BEAM-302
IND: 1H 2024
Approval: 1H 2028
Current Market:51k US/76.5k EU
Price: $900k US/$765k EU (Wedbush)
28’: 1.5b
29’: 4.5b
30’: 7b
31’: 9.5b (5k US/7k EU) peak but could hold consistently around 5b for MANY years. ~2k born each year (US+EU)
IND: 1H 2024
Approval: 1H 2028
Current Market:51k US/76.5k EU
Price: $900k US/$765k EU (Wedbush)
28’: 1.5b
29’: 4.5b
30’: 7b
31’: 9.5b (5k US/7k EU) peak but could hold consistently around 5b for MANY years. ~2k born each year (US+EU)
$VERV-101 (50% US to BEAM)
Approval: 2H 2026
Current Market: The TAM is massive, but actual market will be small & gradually build as people gain confidence in GE for preventative medicine.
Price: $50k
26’: $25k x 2000= 50m
27’: 100m
28’: 150m
29’: 200m
30’: 300m
31’: 400m
Approval: 2H 2026
Current Market: The TAM is massive, but actual market will be small & gradually build as people gain confidence in GE for preventative medicine.
Price: $50k
26’: $25k x 2000= 50m
27’: 100m
28’: 150m
29’: 200m
30’: 300m
31’: 400m
$VERV-201 (50% US to BEAM)
IND: 2024
Approval: 2028
Similar size to $VERV-101
Price: $80k
28’: 100m
29’: 300m
30’: 400m
31’: 500m
📝 Of Note: This was the hardest to price/estimate. Need to do more research on this to be more confident in the pricing/potential market.
IND: 2024
Approval: 2028
Similar size to $VERV-101
Price: $80k
28’: 100m
29’: 300m
30’: 400m
31’: 500m
📝 Of Note: This was the hardest to price/estimate. Need to do more research on this to be more confident in the pricing/potential market.
$BEAM liver 🎯 with $PFE
IND: 1H 2025
Approval: 1H 2029
Current Market: Unknown
Most likely the 35% choice (BEAM will get to choose 1/3 programs)
29’: ~350m
30’: ~600m
31’: ~700m peak
📝 Of Note: Totally a shot in the dark. We don’t even know the disease yet.
IND: 1H 2025
Approval: 1H 2029
Current Market: Unknown
Most likely the 35% choice (BEAM will get to choose 1/3 programs)
29’: ~350m
30’: ~600m
31’: ~700m peak
📝 Of Note: Totally a shot in the dark. We don’t even know the disease yet.
💡ESCAPE aka WAVE 2 SCD
IND: Late 2024
Approval: 1H 2029
Current Market for WAVE 2:
75k US/33k EU
US/EU Market upon approval: ~70k/~30k
Price: $1.75m/1.5m EU
29’: 2b (~1250 patients)
30’: 7b
31’: 11.5b (I expect peak penetration around 7k)
📝 Note: factored in births
IND: Late 2024
Approval: 1H 2029
Current Market for WAVE 2:
75k US/33k EU
US/EU Market upon approval: ~70k/~30k
Price: $1.75m/1.5m EU
29’: 2b (~1250 patients)
30’: 7b
31’: 11.5b (I expect peak penetration around 7k)
📝 Note: factored in births
👁 Stargardt Disease
IND: mid-25’
Approval: 2H 29’
Market: 4500 US/8100 EU
Price: $337,500 US/ $287k EU (Wedbush)
29’: 250 x ~300k= 75m
30’: 750= 225m
31’: 1250= 375m peak
IND: mid-25’
Approval: 2H 29’
Market: 4500 US/8100 EU
Price: $337,500 US/ $287k EU (Wedbush)
29’: 250 x ~300k= 75m
30’: 750= 225m
31’: 1250= 375m peak
🚨 Programs I didn’t count:
2 additional w/ $PFE
-with royalties and milestones
1 additional w/ $VERV
-35% WW share for $BEAM
Royalties etc from $SANA
Any revenue from $APLS
Any new programs $BEAM might nominate.
2 additional w/ $PFE
-with royalties and milestones
1 additional w/ $VERV
-35% WW share for $BEAM
Royalties etc from $SANA
Any revenue from $APLS
Any new programs $BEAM might nominate.
📝 Note: $BEAM 101, 201, 301, 302, ESCAPE, and Stargardt Disease are all wholly owned.
50% US on $VERV 101/201
35% WW on 1/3 $PFE 🎯
35% WW on third $VERV 🎯
50% US on $VERV 101/201
35% WW on 1/3 $PFE 🎯
35% WW on third $VERV 🎯
Assumptions: For some in-vivo programs I’m predicting IND to some form of regulatory acceptance in ~3.75 years. For ex-vivo I add ~6 months and use ~4.25 years.
In-vivo is MUCH faster & I believe as regulatory bodies get more comfortable with it, it can approach 3 years!
In-vivo is MUCH faster & I believe as regulatory bodies get more comfortable with it, it can approach 3 years!
In-vivo vs. Ex-vivo 🥊
I believe the speed at which in-vivo therapies can move from Nomination > IND > Clinic > Approval is being grossly undervalued.
Quite possibly 1 of the biggest reasons #GeneEditing will transform #biotech into the biggest growth sector of the next decade!
I believe the speed at which in-vivo therapies can move from Nomination > IND > Clinic > Approval is being grossly undervalued.
Quite possibly 1 of the biggest reasons #GeneEditing will transform #biotech into the biggest growth sector of the next decade!
📝 Note: When I say “Approval” I mean at minimum EU approval or US approval — doesn’t necessarily have to be both. One may come ~6 months later.
📝 If these numbers don’t ramp this fast, go to my ‘regular bull case’ ⬇️ which factors in a more conventional ramp
📝 If these numbers don’t ramp this fast, go to my ‘regular bull case’ ⬇️ which factors in a more conventional ramp
📢 Worth mentioning:
Large stake in new RNA editing company — Orbital Therapeutics
Important partnership with $PRME
These partnerships help to solidify BEAM’s position as a future leader on delivery.
Large stake in new RNA editing company — Orbital Therapeutics
Important partnership with $PRME
These partnerships help to solidify BEAM’s position as a future leader on delivery.
Revenue by year (not including milestones/royalties):
26’: 50m
27’: 1.2b
28’: 6.1b🔥
29’: 9.6b🔥🔥
30’: 17b🔥🔥🔥
31’: 23.5b🔥🔥🔥🔥 *peak*
📝 Of note: assumed all rev. was paid upfront. In reality higher priced programs may be paid in 3-5yr plans. Peak until more programs 📣
26’: 50m
27’: 1.2b
28’: 6.1b🔥
29’: 9.6b🔥🔥
30’: 17b🔥🔥🔥
31’: 23.5b🔥🔥🔥🔥 *peak*
📝 Of note: assumed all rev. was paid upfront. In reality higher priced programs may be paid in 3-5yr plans. Peak until more programs 📣
The “Blue Sky Scenario” assumes 2 MAJOR things:
1) ESCAPE can IND by Late 24’ & debut in 1H 29’ w/ little to no competition in SCD
2) $BEAM-302 is best in class cure for Alpha 1, can IND ~1H 24’ & debut in 1H 28’
In 31’/32’these 2 programs could make up 21b/23.5b or ~89.4% 😳
1) ESCAPE can IND by Late 24’ & debut in 1H 29’ w/ little to no competition in SCD
2) $BEAM-302 is best in class cure for Alpha 1, can IND ~1H 24’ & debut in 1H 28’
In 31’/32’these 2 programs could make up 21b/23.5b or ~89.4% 😳
🚨 This shows how important $BEAM-101 is because it can dramatically increase the probability of success for ESCAPE.
Similarly, BEAM-301 is incredibly important as POC (Proof of Concept) for the big money maker, 💰BEAM-302. 🚨
Similarly, BEAM-301 is incredibly important as POC (Proof of Concept) for the big money maker, 💰BEAM-302. 🚨
“Blue Sky” is my ultra bull scenario (or 5/5)
If it pans out…
31’/32’Revenue: $23.5b🔥🔥🔥
Market Cap: $235b🔥🔥🔥
📝 Of Note: Assumes additional pipeline progress aka new programs w/ potential!
📝 This scenario requires a very fast ramp of 302/ESCAPE!
If it pans out…
31’/32’Revenue: $23.5b🔥🔥🔥
Market Cap: $235b🔥🔥🔥
📝 Of Note: Assumes additional pipeline progress aka new programs w/ potential!
📝 This scenario requires a very fast ramp of 302/ESCAPE!
Bull case (4 out of 5)
- Perhaps price and market estimates are too high.
-Perhaps RNAi takes more of the Alpha 1 market than anticipated
-or unforeseen competition/delays for ESCAPE.
-Ramp is a slower/more conventional
2031 Revenue: $15b🔥🔥
Market Cap: $150b🔥🔥
- Perhaps price and market estimates are too high.
-Perhaps RNAi takes more of the Alpha 1 market than anticipated
-or unforeseen competition/delays for ESCAPE.
-Ramp is a slower/more conventional
2031 Revenue: $15b🔥🔥
Market Cap: $150b🔥🔥
More Conservative/Neutral (3/5)
Either 302 or ESCAPE fails.
Only 1 of those succeeds, and possibly slower/less market share than expected.
2031 Revenue: $8b🔥
Market Cap: $72b🔥
Either 302 or ESCAPE fails.
Only 1 of those succeeds, and possibly slower/less market share than expected.
2031 Revenue: $8b🔥
Market Cap: $72b🔥
Bear 🐻 case (2 out of 5)
Base Editing is found to work less frequently than expected/has more safety concerns. The company is relegated to a smaller niche or needs to pivot to Prime Editing which will take time.
2031 Revenue: $2b
Market Cap: $16b
Base Editing is found to work less frequently than expected/has more safety concerns. The company is relegated to a smaller niche or needs to pivot to Prime Editing which will take time.
2031 Revenue: $2b
Market Cap: $16b
Ultra Bear 🐻 (1 out of 5)
Somehow Cas12b, Base editing, and Prime Editing all fail or have much more limited applications than originally thought.
2031 Revenue: $1b
Market Cap: $8b
Somehow Cas12b, Base editing, and Prime Editing all fail or have much more limited applications than originally thought.
2031 Revenue: $1b
Market Cap: $8b
🚨Again, all MC predictions are ~9yrs away-for Dec. 31st, 2031- except for Ultra Bull (9-10 years)
IMO these are the likelihoods of each outcome:
Ultra Bull: 5% (235b MC)
Bull: 20%” (150b)
Neutral: 50% (72b)
Bear: 20% (16b)
Ultra Bear: 5% (8b)
@john_evans3 no pressure 😅😉
IMO these are the likelihoods of each outcome:
Ultra Bull: 5% (235b MC)
Bull: 20%” (150b)
Neutral: 50% (72b)
Bear: 20% (16b)
Ultra Bear: 5% (8b)
@john_evans3 no pressure 😅😉
💭 Final Thoughts…
- I think between $72b and $150b is very doable in 9 years.
- Everything would have to go perfect to reach “Blue Sky” territory.
- 100k in US/EU eligible for ESCAPE.. ~2k born ea. year
-127,500 in US/EU with Alpha 1.. ~2k born ea. year
- Gives LT revenue
- I think between $72b and $150b is very doable in 9 years.
- Everything would have to go perfect to reach “Blue Sky” territory.
- 100k in US/EU eligible for ESCAPE.. ~2k born ea. year
-127,500 in US/EU with Alpha 1.. ~2k born ea. year
- Gives LT revenue
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