Shellings locations reported by the Ukrainian general staff today.
High concentration in the Svatove, Donetsk and Kherson area. The only reason to shell the right bank of the Dnipro at this stage would be to terrorize the civilian population.
Shelling locations show a higher number for 2nd day in a row, usually I don't think this means anything but possible UA advances might explain it. It could be increased efforts by RU to hold the AFU back
It does however look like the cold weather wont last that long. Predictability included in the prognosis below.
Kupyansk
Recent "geotagged" images show possible AFU advances around Yahidne, I'm not ruling out AFU presence in Yahidne, but that is only based on them reaching Orlyans'ke weeks ago and the recent images possibly showing them south of Yahidne.
h/t @NOELreports
I believe these are images from a drone of the same place, posted about 1 week ago.
Location: 49.6492, 37.9480
Source: t.me/dvish_alive/19…
Svatove
The AFU repulsed attacks in the area of Novoselivs'ke, Stel'makhivka and Chervonopopivka. Wargonzo reported AFU advances south of Chervonopopivka, reaching the outskirts of the town.
Additionally they reported offensive operations by the AFU south of Kreminna.
Regarding Novoselivs'ke, there was a video today showing RU troops at the north end of the town. I have considered this town contested for a long time and the town does not seem to be able to provide any cover based on the destruction there.
The video from Novoselivs'ke also looks staged, I think it's likely neither side will try to stay in town.
It's not unlikely the AFU is trying to utilize the colder dryer weather and have increased the intensity of operations.
Siversk
The AFU repulsed attacks by PMC Wagner in the direction of Hryhorivka, Vyimka and Sivers'k. I have been told double digits of the mercenaries will not be composing any more music.
Allegedly captured mercenary from Wagner, he was threated to be sent back to his own if he did not speak. He was recruited from prison for involevement with drugs about a month ago. He was captured after only 5 days in Ukraine. t.me/ukrnastup/67991
Soledar
Video from LDNR showing them shelling AFU position in the marked area.
Bakhmut
The AFU repulsed attacks around Bakhmut, Opytne, Klishchiivka, Kurdyumivka and Pivnichne. This makes me believe Kurdyumivka still is contested.
Video showing Orc life outside Bakhmut
48.575943,38.038702
The reason the confidence is low, is a lack of data. They simply dont have enough information to know yet. Desplite that, the US President proclaims complete destruction, an assesment likely based more on his whishes than any intelligence.
Furthermore, they are trying to supress any discussion about this and might actually prevent the DIA to do their job properly, they know a negative report will not be precieved well by the White House.
Hegseth also tells a story which does not align with reality. We have all seen the pictures. There isnt a mountain of rubble. Hegseth says he have seen it all, and i wonder if it was during his time as prison guard or if it was during his time as a instructor?
I have seen speculations about some of the HEU and centrifuges being moved to the new underground facilities (UGF) south west of Natanz main compound. I do not belive this is the case, I think the tunnel complex to the SW of the main facility is unfinished. Here is why
The main compound is secured by at least five layers of fencing and walls, with three checkpoints required to enter the facility.
Compare this to the new UGF complex to the SW.
Only two tunnels have extra fencing, the wall and fencing around it is incomplete. There are clear sings of construction work going in near the tunnel entrances.
A lot of people are asking what we see in this image.
The two orange circles show where the impacts were, 3 holes at each circle making it 6 in total. There is no other visible damage.
Image from @michaelh992
Since last fall, Russia have increased their effort to build shelters for aircrafts. I have identified 14 localtion where they have build or are building shelters.
Kirovske
45.1709, 35.1761
10 U shaped walls, no roof.
Engels AirBase
51.49953, 46.23520
Construction recently started, ground work for 10 shelters.