Thread by @DefMon3

Ukraine update🧵December 2nd

The presentation today is NOT blessed by the VDV wizard. He does however have a history of blessing the VDV, so that explains A LOT.

Visit interactive map for more details and explanations:
scribblemaps.com/maps/view/Oper…

Yesterdays thread
twitter.com/DefMon3

Shellings locations reported by the Ukrainian general staff today.
High concentration in the Svatove, Donetsk and Kherson area. The only reason to shell the right bank of the Dnipro at this stage would be to terrorize the civilian population.

Shelling locations show a higher number for 2nd day in a row, usually I don't think this means anything but possible UA advances might explain it. It could be increased efforts by RU to hold the AFU back

https://twitter.com/ragnarbjartur/status/1598753870879985664

Weather by @davidhelms570
The prognosis still show cold weather for the coming week.

https://twitter.com/davidhelms570/status/1598661873099935745

It does however look like the cold weather wont last that long. Predictability included in the prognosis below.

Kupyansk
Recent "geotagged" images show possible AFU advances around Yahidne, I'm not ruling out AFU presence in Yahidne, but that is only based on them reaching Orlyans'ke weeks ago and the recent images possibly showing them south of Yahidne.
h/t @NOELreports

Video of position south of Yahidne t.me/ukwarzone/9694

I believe these are images from a drone of the same place, posted about 1 week ago.
Location: 49.6492, 37.9480
Source: t.me/dvish_alive/19…

Svatove
The AFU repulsed attacks in the area of Novoselivs'ke, Stel'makhivka and Chervonopopivka. Wargonzo reported AFU advances south of Chervonopopivka, reaching the outskirts of the town.
Additionally they reported offensive operations by the AFU south of Kreminna.

Regarding Novoselivs'ke, there was a video today showing RU troops at the north end of the town. I have considered this town contested for a long time and the town does not seem to be able to provide any cover based on the destruction there.

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1598631100468928513

The video from Novoselivs'ke also looks staged, I think it's likely neither side will try to stay in town.

It's not unlikely the AFU is trying to utilize the colder dryer weather and have increased the intensity of operations.

Siversk
The AFU repulsed attacks by PMC Wagner in the direction of Hryhorivka, Vyimka and Sivers'k. I have been told double digits of the mercenaries will not be composing any more music.

Allegedly captured mercenary from Wagner, he was threated to be sent back to his own if he did not speak. He was recruited from prison for involevement with drugs about a month ago. He was captured after only 5 days in Ukraine.
t.me/ukrnastup/67991

Soledar
Video from LDNR showing them shelling AFU position in the marked area.

Soledar
48.6640, 38.09138
t.me/millnr/9826

Bakhmut
The AFU repulsed attacks around Bakhmut, Opytne, Klishchiivka, Kurdyumivka and Pivnichne. This makes me believe Kurdyumivka still is contested.

Video showing Orc life outside Bakhmut
48.575943,38.038702

https://twitter.com/dimailnitsky/status/1598683726019543041

Donetsk
The AFU repulsed attacks around Pervomais'ke Krasnohorivka and Mar'inka. Russian forces continue to prepare for an attack in this area.

The ground is definitely frozen. Unsure to what extent and how it would withstand an entire mechanized unit.