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Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
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Dec 2 • 3 tweets • 1 min read
Since 1945 (and earlier I think) the Scandinavian voice in Europe was muted by division (NATO vs neutralism), but this is transforming in front of our eyes. Finland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark are together forming one of the most important strategic nexuses on the continent.
It’s been fascinating to see the growing assertiveness particularly of Sweden and Finland. The very important truth telling by Sanna Marin on European security and the recent comments by @TobiasBillstrom on the need to defeat Russia stand out.
The importance of these societies, which are some of the fairest in the world with envious standards of public health and education, speaking with such clarity is refreshing.

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More from @PhillipsPOBrien

Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Dec 3
This map of Russian aircraft activity from the last few months reveals one of the reasons the war has developed as it has and why Russian military power was so overestimated before 24 Feb. If you look at the map of where Russian aircraft were located…
What you see is that all of them are flying over Russian controlled territory (at the time of flight). It seems that venturing over the area of battle is simply too dangerous for Russians, and they have mostly decided to fly at a safe distance behind the line.
This success by Ukrainian anti air forces has maintained Ukrainian mobility behind their lines, allowing them to maneuver units in the open with relative safely. This was not supposed to happen. Every time you see Ukrainian vehicle columns moving in bright daylight on main roads
Read 4 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Nov 19
Ive enjoyed interacting with @afneil on twitter--and I think this article is very important in showing the trajectory of argument and the fact that Brexit now has little backing left beyond identity. However would like to ask three things.
Do you actually believe there was a realistic political chance that the UK could have reacted to Brexit by slashing regulation, taxes and setting up a 'Singapore' in Europe? Personally that seems politically impossible but would like your take on whether that was possible.
Couldnt the problem be not that this huge economic experiment wasnt tried (though in some ways Truss did try it and it was snuffed out by the markets not the remainers), but that the deal negotiated by Johnson and Frost set up terrible economic conditions that we now live under?
Read 4 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Nov 16
This really is a fascinating press conference by Secdef Austin and Gen Milley. Just started it. Austin says early that they are helping Ukraine not only consolidate its recent gains, but to make more.
Speaks again about Ukraine having new initiatives on the battlefield. THough said in the Spring. Austin making sure to pay particular praise to many other NATO countries, he is trying to present this as a strong NATO alliance effort.
Milley, Russia has made a terrible strategic mistake. Wanted to overrun all of Ukraine and lost first their strategic objectives, and now their operational ones. Listing Russian operational failures. All have failed, 'every single one'
Read 26 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Nov 15
The Russian missile screw-up that ended up killing two Poles will result in NATO invoking article 4 not article 5 (see below). The consultation will probably result in more support for Ukraine, particularly air and anti-air power. Will give Poland some real influence.
In a way the generally poor performance of Russian military equipment will help support the idea that this was not deliberate but a malfunction (and there have been many by Russian equipment in this war) . This is all just my opinions of course
Agree with this by @general_ben
Read 5 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Nov 13
Weekend Update--just sent out from substack. Its rather long this week and has lots of links. Will take a while to transfer it over to twitter directly, though will do that later. Here is the substack link. phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-upda…
Here are the first few tweets of it so you can see how it develops.
Weekend Update, Kherson, HIMARS and how the war might proceed in the coming weeks and months.
Read 12 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Nov 11
Pretty strong evidence from the @NBCNews exit poll that the Abortion question really did change the outcome of this midterm election. Of the 5 issues voters could choose that mattered most, Abortion came in second, with 27% of voters saying it was the most important issue.
That was only 4% behind inflation, the number 1 issue. Thats a very high number for a social issue. And voters who cared about abortion voted overwhelmingly for the Democrats, 76%-23%. This rate was much higher than another social issue which divides the parties, guns...
which the Democrats won, but by a lesser 60-37. Worth comparing to 2020, when 35% of the people chose the economy as the #1 issue, and the highest social issue (racial inequality) was #1 to only 20%.
Read 4 tweets

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