A theory of fascism. Source: How To Stop Fascism (2021) 1/ It's the product of social and ideological disintegration, triggered by a fear of freedom ....
2/ Though fear of freedom is everywhere, it's particularly strong in groups with a material interest in Un freedom ... #HowtoStopFascism
3/ It's not just a capitalist defence mechanism - its function is to reverse historical progress. Today's fascism - primarily ethnonationalist - is far more explicitly anti-modern than before ...
4/ Co-creation was there in the 20th century movements but is far more salient now, because of networks: the movement becomes a reward structure ...
5/ There's no explicit fascist economic model; rather it must radicalise any existing form of capitalism toward war for Schmittian reasons ....
6/ Agent theory is facile: it's a product of decay and is the self defence organism of class society. When it fails it's logic is self-annihilation. More here ...amazon.co.uk/How-Stop-Fasci…
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What happened in D.C.? 🧵1/ We, outside the classified zone, won't know for a while - because the European leaders pulled of something surreal: they pulled Trump back from getting sucked in to Putin's mental framework ... but...
2/ ... look at this: diplomats with PhDs, security analysts with years in the field, aircrew risking their lives to surveil the Russia/Iran threat... all that expertise and dedication keeping us safe ... for this? The White House of Kennedy and Roosevelt turned into a trashy gift shop....
2/ ... look at this: diplomats with PhDs, security analysts with years in the field, aircrew risking their lives to surveil the Russia/Iran threat... all that expertise and dedication keeping us safe ... for this? The White House of Kennedy and Roosevelt turned into a trashy gift shop....
There are 3 historical reference points for Trump's Alaska disgrace ... Munich '38, Berlin '40, Moscow '41... which is closest? 1/🧵we've had no readout from an honest source...
2/ At Munich democracies signed up to dismembering Czechoslovakia, sidelining USSR with which it had a mutual defence pact ... so this wasn't Munich, yet...
3/ The Aug 1941 Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact dismembered Poland and started WW2...
Global investors are selling US stocks because they know Trump's tariffs will kill globalisation and trigger recession 1/... but why are they selling bonds at the same time? 🧵
2/ ....They're selling US bonds - which they would normally buy as a safe haven - because bonds have become gambling chips for hedge funds who are gambling on massive credit ... as @FT explains
@FT 3/ ... what comes next is financial contagion. After 2008 all banks required to keep a stock of capital to cushion instability ... that's rapidly eroded... sudden stop in trade plus massive losses in financial markets is bound to take down some bank somewhere...
Britain we - and we alone - have a major diplomatic problem. Witkoff, Trump's envoy to RU, claimed on record that the four disputed provinces of Ukraine plus Crimea were "handed over by Kruschev" 1/ We are signatories of Budapest...
2/ Here's what the Budapest Memorandum says. Very clear: that we, the USA and Russia respect the *existing borders* of Ukraine. If Witkoff's position is shared by the State Dept we are, as of now, the sole remaining guarantor of UA sovereignty ...
3/ Trump is already breaching Budapest by using economic coercion against Ukraine ... but if USA has de facto walked away from Budapest then UK has to public reaffirm our adherence to it... it conforms to the Vienna criterion for a Treaty under international law ....
Make no mistake: Putin wants a puppet government in Kyiv and enforced neutrality/demilitarisation for Ukraine. 1/ Having failed to do achieve this through war, he now wants to achieve it through destabilisation... so the prevarication about the ceasefire offer is just for show🧵
2/ As @ZelenskyyUa points out: prevarication and delay is Putin's modus operandi. I'd go further - it's part of the Reflexive Control doctrine he operates against "state victims" which in this instance is the UK/EU...
@ZelenskyyUa 3/ The immediate truce offer was agreed with Trump, designed by the Brits and places Putin in a bind. He cannot insist on conditions - since his own economy is on the brink of destabilisation, and on the front line in Donbas (not Kursk) UA is v operationally effective...
Hegseth's Rammstein speech is a watershed moment for Europe. It means the USA is no longer a reliable ally, even if its democracy survives ... 1/ ... but Hegseth is right on one thing. We now have to spend a lot more on defence 🧵
2/ The FT reports HMG quibbling over 2.3% of GDP on defence and 2.6% - but that's now irrelevant... Trump is demanding 5% and may accept 3.5%... and it's clear what we need to spend it on...
3/ Without the USA as an ally primarily committed to European security, we need Europe to own strategic enablers. Satellites, heavy lift, AWACS, carriers and a reliably independent nuclear deterrent...