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Simon Usherwood

@Usherwood

Nov 20

Right

Late to this whole 'Swiss style deal' thing, but key point to remember is that EU isn't a supermarket: you don't get to pick & mix what you want

What bundle EU is prepared to offer you is their call, from membership all the way down to participation in a single programme

For the hard of remembering, maybe have a look at saga of UK's 3 membership bids, Cameron's 'renegotiation', and, um, basically everything since 2016

In the current example, piecemeal selection of the 'good bits' of the Swiss arrangement isn't going to be acceptable (they go with the bad bits because EU insisted)

But also, Swiss deal isn't on the table, because it causes too much grief in Brussels (hence UK's TCA framework)

Read 4 tweets

Simon Usherwood

@Usherwood

Oct 27

Let's have a first crack at Sunak's EU policy

best guess for far: continuity Truss, for better or worse

1/

First up, key personnel remain in post: Cleverly as ForSec, Heaton-Harris at NIO

Yes, Rees-Mogg isn't being directly replaced as 'Brexit Opportunities Minister', but that's secondary at this stage

2/

Second, there are early moves to reach out to EU, so none of the Johnsonian shunning

Read-out from both sides was optimistic

3/

https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1585390175353729024?s=20&t=-AAEWxw6LWliqi9aZBBN9g

Read 13 tweets

Simon Usherwood

@Usherwood

Oct 25

https://twitter.com/Usherwood/status/1573951186998132736

Time for another update on Retained EU Law, as the Lords consider the Bill today

short version: nothing has changed since the govt's tracker was first published in June

data: bit.ly/REULTrackerData

https://twitter.com/Usherwood/status/1573951186998132736

In last 4 months, govt's own tracker records not a single change in status of the 2417 pieces of REUL

That might be down to poor record-keeping, but the site does note updates in September, plus strong incentives to move things along given all the PMs' pushing on this during this year

public.tableau.com/app/profile/go…

Read 4 tweets

Simon Usherwood

@Usherwood

Oct 24

The new PM might not have EU policy as a priority, but it's useful to recall why it still matters a lot

PDF: bit.ly/UshGraphic111

We know that neither Sunak nor Mordaunt have made much of EU issue so far and there's some suggestion it'll be a bone used to placate internal Tory factions

https://twitter.com/redhistorian/status/1584437063050735617?s=20&t=qO6KBvPBVKLiKvJnWylDmw

Treating EU as second-order could obviously also mean it's not worth fighting EU about, given likely economic/geostrategic upsides, but that neglects continued strength of feeling in some backbench quarters

Read 8 tweets

Simon Usherwood

@Usherwood

Oct 23

FWIW some thoughts on how the new PM might approach the EU issue

tl;dr more of the same, at best

1/

Let's assume for now it's one of Sunak, Johnson or Mordaunt

But in any case there are some common constraints

2/

Central in these is the likely lack of focus on EU as a priority issue: salvaging economic credibility will take much time/effort, even for the safest pair of hands, so expect that to dominate

3/

Read 10 tweets