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Nassim Nicholas Taleb Profile picture
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Dec 3 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
The thread below shows the severe defect of AI: verbalism. It works with labels, maximally shallow thinking not any better than buzzwords.
See also below my definiton of verbalism.
2) In case the thread loops away from this.

3) The AI responses remind me of @ptetlock's
4) 22 years later, ChatGPT is allowing us to do the Reverse Turing Test.

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More from @nntaleb

Nassim Nicholas Taleb Profile picture
Dec 4
Ms Nina Teicholz @bigfatsurprise's own paper shows that cutting on Saturated Fats gives a 98.6% chance of reducing CardioVascular Events, and AT LEAST 86% of reducing mortality.
Statistics is hard for the verbalistic.
cc:thanks to @DrDamluji ImageImageImage
2) Please do not invoke "ancestral" diets in support of the consumption of hamburgers and supermarket butter: these were different animals, and were eaten at a different frequency.
3) Furthermore, the Cochrane pple (statistically naive & procedural) treated CV events and CV mortality as independent (one LEADS to the other); if you condition you get a much HIGHER confidence for the drop of mortality from avoidance of Sat Fats, perhaps 99%.
Read 4 tweets
Nassim Nicholas Taleb Profile picture
Nov 29
Banning Trump after Jan 6 is entirely compatible with the foundations of democracy, even necessary. By the Gödel-Popper rule, a democracy should never give its tools to those who want to thwart it.
Turns out the constitution has a variant of the Gödel-Popper rule.

Note that the name "Gödel-Popper rule" is something I put together to merge Popper's paradox of tolerance and Gödel's naturalization's anecdote, see Skin in the Game.

I am tired of *verbalisms* thrown at me with concepts such as "freedom of expression", "democracy", etc.
Idiots *think* in labels. Image
Read 4 tweets
Nassim Nicholas Taleb Profile picture
Nov 24
OK, The new book is turning to be vastly more general than I thought.
Allora: a New Title: "Fallacies".
Polite for "Recollections of an active BS Busting mission 2018-2023". ImageImage
2) FALLACIES integrates much of Principia Politica (a.k.a. Scala Politica), Some of the Essays on Religion (see Medium), a simplification of the Covid forecasting papers, the paper on the Russian War (Centralized Empire vs Nato) etc.
3) Note: a lot of so-called "fallacies" are not fallacies, invented by psycholobullshitters with a wrong map of reality, often with experiments that don't replicate.
+ Dunning Kruger is not a fallacy.
+ Sunk Cost, Ad Hominem, Appeal to Authority are rarely fallacies. Image
Read 4 tweets
Nassim Nicholas Taleb Profile picture
Nov 13
Cities are living organisms. Like all organisms they are indivisible and mutate over time. Some cities are more alive than others. You can only "feel" a city by flaneuring, walking slowly (very slowly) without any predetermined goal.
2) Cities great for flaneuring: NYC, Athens,Belgrade, Moscow, Milan, Rome, Beirut, Istanbul, Bogota, Montreal,Buenos Aires, Rio (not SP), Paris, Budapest, Warsaw ...
OK: London, Mexico C., Oslo, Stockholm, Copenh
Sometimes: Venice, Rome, Prague (too many tourists).

Nono: Dubai.
3) Also great: Tokyo, Palermo, Damascus, Tripoli (Leb).
Some parts: Delhi, Mumbai.
Read 5 tweets
Nassim Nicholas Taleb Profile picture
Nov 2
WARNING ON HEALTH QUACKS
The great @jaffer_ali1 will have 3x bypass. It was also discovered that he had numerous previous heart attacks.
Jaffer was getting advice from a quack (Covid denier), Mark Baker, promoter of "anaerobic" @GuruAnaerobic.

This was m.p. a mild MI ON TWITTER! Image
2) There is a small possibility that it was stable ischemic disease but conditional on the presence of previous heart attacks means this was it!
3) What's strange is that I was having lunch at Spadaro with a close friend of @jaffer_ali1 when we discussed it, both agreed that "he is going to get killed by these *lethal* squats", & how these quacks can kill pple.
The friend got a DM from Jaffer when the lunch finished.
Read 7 tweets
Nassim Nicholas Taleb Profile picture
Nov 1
Interesting perspective from @yhazony. I wonder abt the counterargument: my experience of altruistic pple w/lives devoted to village/community were often childless (I recently funded to name a street named after one).
Could absence of progeny make one feel more love of humanity?
@yhazony 2) There is also the *aut liberi aut libri*.
Catholificism seems to hold that perspective (celibacy is required to service humankind), Orthodoxy only partially (it limits celibacy higher up e.g. bishops), but Judaism and Islam prefer clerics to have descendants.
3) Also statistically, given that the average progeny ~2.2, with some having >12 children, the majority of people MUST have been childless (from child mortality) owing to such high skewness.
Read 4 tweets

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