The only reason people don't believe that active listings aren't low is that they want to blame the Fed; this is why this group never believes in low inventory.
I explain it this way to people, so there is a valid reason we have never had low inventory ever π
If you truly believe we can't increase the supply of the goods or services that still show hot inflation data, then you do what needs to be done because it sure isn't the dollar collapsing that created all this π€
We still have over a trillion dollars of excess savings, but that will wind down in time. However, supply increasing will help with inflationary data, especially with shelter inflation; that story is already done from the peak growth rate on current data lines, not lagging ones
Purchase apps are up 4 weeks in a row, something that has not happened since rates started to rise.
Does anyone remember what happened in 2014?
Both periods have some similar data lines and some that are not.
Let me tell you a Christmas tale ππ
2014, purchase apps were down 20% YoY on trend, adjusting population, it was the lowest level ever. We got back to those levels this year. We have bounced off the lows with the data over the last few weeks. Remember, extreme low bar we are working with.
2014 was the last year we had inventory growth; back then, we got roughly 2,300,000 active listings and are currently at 1,220,000. So this is much different now than then
One of the biggest reasons people missed the most prolonged economic and job expansion in history, and the Covid19 recovery has been the inability to read consumer credit debt channels for over 12 years π
Note:
Anti-Central Bank People
MMT people
Steve Keen followers, <- Steve Keen followers being the worst of the group π