On Shoigu's unexpected visit to Minsk. It was most likely arranged yesterday after Putin's phone call to Lukashenko. First, Shoigu together with his Belarusian counterpart signed amendments to the 1997 security treaty (signed in a hurry, at the airfield, not at MoD HQ). 1/4 
Shoigu then went straight to Lukashenko, who was playing hockey on his day off. He thanked him for training Russian mobiks (the first time this was publicly acknowledged) and said that the joint regional grouping "already looks like a sort of force that can carry out tasks". 2/4
But most importantly, for the first time, Shoigu explicitly said that Russia expects more active and constructive contacts from the Belarusian MoD and Lukashenko himself. After the meeting, Lukashenko remained in his palace until midnight (very unusual, esp. on his day off). 3/4
It's too early to talk about more active involvement of Belarus - there is no increase in military activity on the ground. But the fact that Russia is taking active steps and expressing its discontent is in any case very significant. 4/4
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