Will Schryver Profile picture
Dec 4 5 tweets 2 min read
Short🧵

The original NATO-trained AFU was ruined by July.

In late August there appeared a smaller army based on NATO training, equipment, and the cream of the AFU mobilization crop -- plus several thousand "foreign volunteers" -- including at least hundreds of Americans.

1/
It has now emerged the Poles have already lost ~5000 casualties on Ukrainian battlefields.

The current Polish government will almost certainly not survive this debacle.

There are at least hundreds more from other countries, including the US.

2/
Many mocked my blog post of September 30th – entitled Turning Point.

Few saw in the battle for Liman a turning point that favored the Russian military position.

And yet here we are: Ukraine is at its weakest ever; Russia at its strongest.

3/

imetatronink.substack.com/p/turning-point
The war in Ukraine has now reached the point where the empire will struggle to find additional willing proxies to feed into the Ukraine meat grinder.

Do the imperial masters choose to cut their losses and stand mutely as Russia dictates the terms of peace?

4/
Or does the #EmpireAtAllCosts cult bear sway and attempt to reclaim the situation by more desperate measures?

2023 is likely to be viewed, decades hence, as a hinge-year in history.

Prepare accordingly.

5/end

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More from @imetatronink

Nov 18
🧵Ukraine War Thoughts – 2022_11_17

There are increasing signs the narrative field is being sown to condition the public mind for Zelensky's predestined fall from grace.

Ukrainian leadership is exuding desperation.

They know the true score.

They know time is running out.

1/
They know their autumn “conquests” were Pyrrhic in the extreme – many thousands of casualties and severe losses of equipment without ever inflicting a meaningful defeat on Russian forces, who are content to fall back to prepared lines to await the next wave of cannon fodder.

2/
They know and are humiliated by how the Russians effected, with impressive speed and negligible cost, the withdrawal of over 20,000 troops and their equipment from Kherson, over what were (allegedly) acutely vulnerable and tenuous lines of communication across the Dnieper.

3/
Read 13 tweets
Nov 9
🧵Brief War Update: 2022-11-08

With each passing day I am increasingly convinced the Ukrainian army is largely a spent force.

And with each passing day it is increasingly apparent that the Russian forces along the line are stronger than at any previous time in this war.

1/
This doesn’t preclude a Russian general with more ambition than sense making a stupid move that gets a bunch of men and equipment shot up. You always see this sort of stupidity in war.

Nor are the Ukrainians beyond massing another 35k+ men for a cannon fodder run.

2/
But the tide of this war has been discernibly altered over the past month.

The AFU is exhausted and depleted. It can no longer mount a credible offensive against Russian defenses. Yet it is apparently still willing to sacrifice men and equipment in futile attempts.

3/
Read 5 tweets
Nov 4
Short 🧵

Small maneuverable drones have revolutionized the battlefield.

There will now be a feverish race in every nation to produce better models.

Faster; ECM-resistant; longer range and duration; improved software.

We may even see a major battery breakthrough.

1/
Of course, there will also be a commensurate race in all nations to develop better countermeasures to defeat them.

I believe it may parallel the 20th century interwar period of flight development in focus, progress, and impact.

2/
I also believe the technology cannot be easily suppressed.

It is almost certain to become ubiquitous in terms of surveillance capabilities.

Also probably relatively common in terms of light armaments – equivalent to the current capabilities of publicly available firearms.

3/
Read 4 tweets
Oct 21
Ukraine War Update🧵

All sorts of intrigue on the war front the past two weeks. Hard to get a confident handle on what is brewing.

There was a major AFU buildup in the Kherson region, and some probing attacks that have been defeated with relative ease and high AFU losses.

1/
In recent hours there are reports that some Ukrainian troops that were in the south have now been moved to the north, in the area where the September AFU offensive has long-since bogged down after suffering huge losses near Kupyansk and Liman.

2/
It seems unlikely, but it could be the Kherson action was a feint. Or possibly it has simply encountered so much resistance that the AFU command has decided to look elsewhere for some success. So now they’re hoping to reprise their September success in the Kharkov region.

3/
Read 12 tweets
Oct 3
🧵Ukraine War Update

Oh my!

I took a weekend break from the Twitter Wars only to return again to find the #SlavaUkraina trolls in a wanton orgy of premature exultation, and the Russophiles sunken yet again into the pit of despair and premature fault-finding.

1/
One thing is screamingly obvious: although scores of people replied to my blog post from Friday (mostly near-zero follower freshly minted troll accounts – including dozens of the dog-faced meme-bots), vanishingly few had actually read it.

2/
imetatronink.substack.com/p/turning-point
So, permit me to excerpt some of the more relevant passages.

After describing the events of the first three weeks of Ukraine’s under-powered September “counter-offensive” in the Kharkov region, I succinctly summarized the indisputable reality of the situation:

3/
Read 23 tweets
Sep 17
@JohnLChapman I acknowledge I'm one of relatively few that believes it was a deliberate move.

These are the relevant facts:

- all Russian regulars were withdrawn in advance, leaving only a token force of Donbass militia and Rosgvardia

- large numbers of civilians evacuated in advance

1/
@JohnLChapman - it is false that significant amounts of equipment were left behind

- it was a perfectly orderly if rapid withdrawal, with pre-prepared ambuscades along the way

- they withdrew to pre-prepared lines of defense on the east side of the Oskol River

2/
@JohnLChapman - the reserves they brought up were deployed on the east side of the Oskol (to the pre-planned line of defense) while Balakleya and Kupyansk were still Russian-controlled

- they have continued to defend and hold the strategic part of Kupyansk against all attempts to take it

3/
Read 6 tweets

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