Why aren’t we sending Ukraine all the tools needed to end the war? Why are we avoiding specifics during the debate on Ukraine‘s membership of NATO? Because the belief is still alive that after the war we can return to business as usual, as if February 24th was just a glitch.
The tactic of leaving Russia undefeated and ready for future partnership is toxic. It leads to calls to end the war by negotiation instead of ending it with a Ukrainian victory. Some even suggest Ukrainian territorial concessions to the invaders as a gift.
That isn’t how the rules-based international order works. Russia shouldn’t get invited to ‘peace’ negotiations as a reward for brutally invading, occupying and murdering its neighbours again and again.
The creeping normalisation of Russia's actions is fundamentally wrong. Also misguided is the belief that the current security architecture of multilateral regional and global organizations must be preserved as the ‘best we have’.
International organisations completely failed to prevent conflict of a magnitude unseen in Europe since WW2. At the very least there must be change within those organizations. But we should not rule out the possibility of some organisations disappearing and new ones forming.
With previous conflicts in Europe, the security architecture was rethought after the fighting ended, new structures appeared. For example, the United Nations appeared after mistakes made during the League of Nations era.
First Russia has to face defeat on the battlefield. For that Ukraine needs all our help. All the weapons, all the assistance we can give. Otherwise Russia will continue trying to reinvent the continent according to its own imperialist world vision.
It is in Europe's interest to fight off and defeat the invader. After this defeat a new system needs to be created out of the lessons learnt from previous mistakes.
Reliance on economic exchange as a principle of mutual assurance, desecuritization, veto power on security issues given to the aggressors – these are some of the misconceptions which failed to ensure the safety of the continent.
Our strategy needs to be rethought and reflected in a new security architecture that will ensure the safety of the continent for decades to come. And we should start creating this new system with Ukraine, not with Putin’s Russia.
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The Trump-Putin Pact already exists, and we should act accordingly. There are some things we will never change with nice words or smart clothing. If you are worried about those things, you should understand where Trump's tactics come from. From Russia.
A thread. 🧵1/14
The fact that military assistance to Ukraine might have been cut before Zelensky’s meeting with Trump in the Oval Office—and only later reconnected—should serve as an example of the current mindset in Washington.🧵2/14
Trump is seeking alignment with Putin. Putin has asked for concessions, and concessions have been promised. We may not know the full extent of those promises, but we must be prepared for all of it.🧵3/14
We said “as long as it takes,” and well, it's gonna take a bit longer. Europe doesn’t need to back down now, not for Putin, not for Trump, not for anyone else who tests us. We can step up and stand firm. Here’s how:🧵1/8
🇪🇺Push back.
The US is important but not omnipotent. Zelenskyy proved that pushing back can work. Firmness commands respect.🧵2/8
🇪🇺Stick together.
A tightly united Europe can be strong enough to resist an isolationist America. We must tackle internal disruptors so external disruptors find it harder to tackle us.🧵3/8
I want to tell you a story. In 2015, I was in a Lithuanian city of Panevežys, standing with the locals, watching a military parade. But this was no ordinary parade, because marching alongside the Lithuanian troops were our American allies.🧵1/16
Not long after Russia annexed Crimea, in an impressive show of solidarity, Bradleys, Humvees, and Abrams rolled through Lithuanian streets that, just a quarter of a century earlier had been under occupation by the Soviet Union.🧵2/16
An elderly man stood near me at the roadside, waving a pair of pink tulips at the passing tanks. As they rumbled by he shed a tear and I heard him murmur to himself, "Oh, how long I have waited for this".🧵3/16
On a cold December evening in 2021, during an OSCE meeting in Stockholm, Lavrov outlined what he called “a new security architecture” for Europe. And Trump, knowingly or otherwise, might now be implementing those plans.🧵1/5
Apart from the usual nonsense about biolabs and nukes, Lavrov demanded that for stability in Europe, NATO must go back to its 1997 borders, retreating from everything except East Germany. So why wouldn’t Putin ask for this in Riyadh? It seems much more than likely.🧵2/5
Putin is not on the ropes, he is on a roll, his dreams are being realised by his former enemies. NATO stayed out of Ukraine, believed the nuclear threats and allowed the shadow war to escalate. Trump can now add Ukrainian neutrality, elections and territories to the list.🧵3/5
Once again I am leaving the Munich Security Conference in a low mood. Amongst all the noise, the US signalled their plans for Europe, so things are becoming clearer. But things are clearly not good.
This is what we now know, and what we now have to do about it:🧵1/17
Ukraine can no longer rely on US assistance. The US President wants a deal, and he wants it fast. Fast deals cost more for the buyer, but the US is not willing to foot the bill. So, ultimately, Ukraine will have to pay the price.🧵2/17
The US is no longer happy to be the main guarantor of security in Europe. There are talks of a partial withdrawal of troops, and a clear shift of priorities to other continents.🧵3/17
🧵1/6
Europe won't survive sleeping through another wake-up call. We should jump out of bed and throw on a shirt. We should do what we can, with what we’ve got. And we’ve got a lot. Here's how to step things up as the US steps down:
🧵2/6
Ukraine’s full integration into the EU has to start now, in 2025, not 2030. Alongside economic benefits, the EU can also serve as a deterrence umbrella, and Ukraine should be under it.
🧵3/6
With Ukraine secured and part of the EU, rebuilding can begin. Trade and investment will grow. This generates revenue for defence, which makes Ukraine stronger, which attracts more investment. We can start this positive feedback loop right now.