Lance Lambert Profile picture
Dec 5 8 tweets 2 min read
#NEW 8% of 2022 mortgage borrowers are underwater, finds Black Knight.

In Colorado Springs, that figure is +30%.
May, June, and July borrowers are the most affected.
As you can see in the chart, very few pre-2022 borrowers are underwater.

Very few might even be an understatement.
When I say "May, June, and July borrowers are the most affected," I'm talking May/June/July 2022.
The 30% figure for Colorado Springs is telling: much of the 8% figure comes from Western markets that have seen home prices fall sharply since June 2022.
(Presumably, 92% of 2022 borrowers are not underwater).
Home prices went up so high & so fast, that home price declines this time around put far fewer borrowers underwater.

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More from @NewsLambert

Dec 5
The Black Knight Home Price Index has U.S. home prices, on a seasonally adjusted basis, down 1.5% since June 2022.

Without adjustment, Black Knight has prices down 3.2% since June 2022.
Nationally, I use Case-Shiller—not Black Knight or the FHFA index—as my gold standard for U.S. home prices.
Black Knight is through October 2022.
Read 4 tweets
Dec 2
Demographics. Image
On one hand, there's still a lot of first-time millennial homebuyers out there.
On the other hand, demographics & home price appreciation aren't always linear.

The purple thingy below represents the '00s housing boom/bust. Image
Read 4 tweets
Dec 2
This week, a company "in the family of iBuying" reached out to CoStar CEO Andy Florance.

The company is at "the point of failure" and asked Florance if CoStar "can fund them."

Florance tells @FortuneMagazine he turned them down.
To be clear: I don’t know what company he’s talking about.
I asked CoStar CEO Andy Florance if iBuyers will still be around in two years time.

He said: "I think people will learn from the first generation."

He added that cost of capital would rise.
Read 5 tweets
Nov 15
UPDATE

Among the country's 400 biggest housing markets, 219 have seen home values fall off their 2022 peak. The average decline being -2%.

Another 181 markets remain at their 2022 peak price.

Source: Zillow Home Value Index
We've seen some of the West Coast declines slow down. At least in the Zillow data.

We've also seen the home price correction spread East. Look no further than Raleigh, which is down 4.79%.
Among the country's biggest housing markets, Austin (down -10.21%) has seen the biggest decline.
Read 5 tweets
Nov 15
Let's dig into Redfin's remaining properties in Las Vegas🎲
Back in June, RedfinNow bought this North Las Vegas home for $457,000.

In August, Redfin listed it for $449,000—which was cut to $399,900 by late September.

Before re-listing it (@ $395,000), it was briefly listed for rent ($2,410).

It remains unsold. Image
I'm going this live. So it'll take time in-between properties.

I'm not cherry picking. I'm going in order based on search results on clarkcountynv.gov. And then cross checking the properties on realtor.com.
Read 12 tweets
Nov 14
On a year-over-year basis, Boise home values are down -4.18%. 🏡📉
These regional housing markets are negative on a YoY basis:

Greenville, MS
Truckee, CA
Greenwood, MS
Grants Pass, OR
Boise City, ID
Shelton, WA
Fairbanks, AK
Minot, ND
99% of markets are still positive on a YoY basis.
Read 5 tweets

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