Thread by @WyAyeScout

It’s been a little over a year since Eddie Howe became the #NUFC manager.

In that time he’s taken a team from relegation favourites to one challenging at the top end of the Premier League table.

In this 🧵, @Edit_Kev takes a look at How(e) things have changed 👇

It’s fair to say that when Eddie Howe took the reins on Nov 9th, things did not look good for #NUFC on the pitch. It’s easy to forget just HOW desperate it was.

Despite the high of the takeover, the team sat 19th in the Premier League without a win & just 5pts from 11 games. 👇

Before Howe’s arrival under the leadership of Steve Bruce (& three games led by Graeme Jones) #NUFC (🔴) were so far behind the league average (🔵) in both Attacking (left image) and Defensive (right) output.

The team performances were as bad as it gets 👇

This wasn’t a blip in #NUFCs form it was a trend.

The gap between #NUFC's Expected Goals (xG) vs. their Expected Goals Conceded (xGC) had been widening for some time.

Since the end of March 2021, #NUFC’s 10-game rolling average xG difference had grown from -0.11 to -0.61 👇

Why does this matter? For those of you who remain sceptical about the power of expected goals (xG) to measure the quality of chances created vs. conceded.

Here’s how closely #NUFC’s actual goal difference tracks its xG difference for the same period of games 👇

The increase in xG Diff was driven by #NUFC’s defence. In 20 games, the team's xGC increased a third from 1.11 to 1.48.

Bruce’s plan to defend deep was no longer enough to power the single-goal victories. These accounted for 60% of EPL his wins at #NUFC. The team had to change.

With a lack of confidence & fitness in the team, the first months of Howe’s tenure were rough.

Though #NUFC picked up a vital 1-0 win against Burnley, draws vs. Brentford & Norwich were joined by defeats to Arsenal, Leicester, Liverpool & Man City.

The xG diff gap widened 👇

It was the 1-1 draw vs. Man Utd, where Howe’s plan started to come together.

A comparison between Burnley (left) & Man Utd (right) games show the difference.

Without the ⚽, the #NUFC press is more aggressive.

With the ⚽, the team's 4-3-3 attacking structure takes shape 👇

Though it was followed by a disappointing draw vs. Watford & an FA Cup exit, the foundation of the great escape had been put in place.

This was boosted by #NUFC's excellent additions in the transfer window, see pre-NUFC radars for Trippier, Targett, Burn and Bruno Guimarães 👇

Starting with a 1-0 win vs. Leeds United at Elland Road, the turnaround in results that followed is already a part of Toon Army folklore.

Despite dealing with injuries to Wilson & Trippier, #NUFC won 12 (63%) of their last 19 EPL games of the season, finishing 11th on 49pts👇

Though narratives for players sprung up: “Joelinton is mint” & "Krafthu" the reality was every aspect of #NUFC’s play was improving fast.

Comparing the attacking (left) & defensive (left) radars from the first 11 games (🔵) to the final half of the season (🔴) is eye-opening 👇

#NUFC’s improving press was a feature of this impressive run. Their ability to put their opposition under pressure helped to generate more turnovers in dangerous areas

From being dead-last for pressures in the opposition half under Bruce, #NUFC were now middle of the pack 👇

An area which significantly improved was #NUFC’s threat from set-pieces.

From Jan to May they were 2nd in the EPL for set-piece shots.

Comparing the first 11 games to the last 19 games we see:

📈 Total set-piece xG 🆙 from 0.21 to 0.31 per 90
📈 Set-piece xG per shot 🆙 by 45%

With #NUFC improving at both ends of the pitch, the xG difference trendline dramatically improves.

In April, #NUFC’s 10-game rolling average xG difference reached a season-high +0.23.

It was #NUFC’s first positive xG difference since Rafa Benetiz was in charge 👇

Building on this #NUFC retained Matt Target before adding Nick Pope, Sven Botman & Alexander Isak to the squad in the summer. See their pre-signing radars below 👇

This extra infusion of quality and a full summer for Eddie Howe to work with the group has propelled #NUFC to even greater heights this season.

In attack (left) & defence (right), we’ve seen another big step forward at the start so far this season (🔴) 👇

The #NUFC press has gone up another level and we’re among the most active teams in the league when trying to win the ball back. 👇

With the form of Trippier & Almiron and with Burn moving to left back, we’re seeing a little right-side bias coming into our attacking structure #NUFC 👇

And Callum Wilson managed to play his way into the England World Cup Squad by scoring six goals in nine games.

He has the 🥉third highest xG per 90 in the entire EPL (of players with 600+ mins) #NUFC 👇

Helping to lift Eddie Howe’s ⚫& ⚪ army up to 3rd in the EPL table with just the one defeat going into Christmas. As #NUFC’s underlying xG difference widens to a Europe-chasing +0.88 xG per 90.

The turnaround he’s managed in just 12 months, is nothing short of incredible 👇

If this is what Eddie Howe can do in just a year. Imagine what he’ll achieve given a few seasons at #NUFC

Maybe, just maybe we can all dare to dream again. 🏆