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Lakshya Jain Profile picture
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Dec 5 • 5 tweets • 6 min read
Our final @SplitTicket_ #GASen runoff model has Warnock +3 as the predicted outcome and a race rating of Leans Democratic. Warnock has an early vote lead of ~280K, by our estimation, and Walker needs a whopper of an election day to reverse things.

split-ticket.org/2022/12/05/geo…
@SplitTicket_ I will say that the only reason I have this at leans Democratic instead of likely is because I have no idea what election day is going to look like, nor do I find it useful in projecting a false sense of confidence about it. This is worse for the GOP than Loeffler/Perdue 2021 IMO
Model made by me and @ADincgor (hey, sound familiar?), with data cleaning assistance from @HWLavelleMaps and @Thorongil16 (who also made the map). An interactive county map can be found here rpubs.com/splitticket/ge….
@ADincgor @HWLavelleMaps @Thorongil16 I confess that some of these county findings are a shade surprising to me (Fayette being left of the state, for example), but it's less surprising looking at the EV. I didn't go into this looking to engineer a topline, and I'm confident enough in the methodology to stand by it.
@ADincgor @HWLavelleMaps @Thorongil16 Special thanks to @gtryan, @elium2, @GTCarfree, @GhostOfRJ, @DjsokeSpeaking, @joe__gantt and @jonathancasasga for their help with this, whether with data modeling ideas or data retrieval. Please note that the model is built solely off of the early vote, with no polling.

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Lakshya Jain Profile picture
Dec 7
OK, very brief methodological thread on how we did this. We began with precinct early vote shares and splits from November and registered voter numbers, split by race and precinct. Then we took statewide turnout rates and shares and adjusted them by precinct using rake weighting.
The key variable here is white vote in support share. You begin by holding Black/Hispanic/AAPI support shares constant, applying statewide turnout shares by race per precinct, and calculating what the white vote would have to be as step 1.
This isn't perfect. You're going to fall short in some places. Here, it's key to look at precinct composition and see the margins you've put in. If your vote shares exceed the bounds you've set in a precinct (e.g. whites in GA aren't 90%), you start playing with electorate shares
Read 5 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
Dec 6
Absentee file updated last night, so there'll be one more update to the Georgia model, but in general I'm not quite sure there's much good news for Herschel Walker heading into this election, from everything I can model (and maybe I'm missing something massive, who knows...)
Like I said, in 2021 I could construct several cases in which Perdue narrowly squeaked by Ossoff in my model at the end, though I found them wholly unconvincing. Walker could win, but he's facing a deficit of 290K votes after the last update in our model.
Even with 1.56M turnout on election day, if Walker gets November splits of R+15 in the general, we're looking at Warnock +1 in my estimation. Walker needs to blow the doors down with the splits. Very possible, but it shouldn't be understated as to how tough it is.
Read 4 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
Dec 2
In general I think Biden breaking the railroad strike is...

- Not great!
- More complex than it seems; being the president who wrecked Christmas isn't a good look for anyone
- Absolutely not a "betrayal of the party's FDR roots". Go look up how FDR actually responded to strikes
I would have liked to see him take the side of the unions but you are also asking for a lot of trouble politically if you do that. If you want Biden to support the unions out of principle, great! I like that stance. But no, it's not "electorally costly" to break the strike.
People love moralizing about the importance of standing with workers until they're dealing with supply shortages and inflation, and then they're okay reimposing horrific working conditions if it means they get their packages and save money. It's a lose-lose, and it sucks.
Read 4 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
Nov 30
Public, nonpartisan polling was quite good this cycle.

If you followed *that* instead of using pundit narratives and the "add fake Republicans" approach of Trafalgar et. al, this midterm wouldn't have been a shock. From me and @dcg1114 for @BulwarkOnline thebulwark.com/the-nonpartisa…
@dcg1114 @BulwarkOnline A lot of the time, it feels like the insider narrative is basically the same 10 people talking to each other and reading what they want to read into the data before telling everyone else. The truth is that the nonpartisan polls never really indicated a red wave at any level.
@dcg1114 @BulwarkOnline I think everyone somehow looked at 2016 and 2020 and decided that polling was irreparably broken in favor of Republicans. Funny thing is, I remember this discourse was a big thing in 2014 in the reverse side -- Dems were convinced polls would undercount them. That went well.
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Lakshya Jain Profile picture
Nov 30
That dumb talking point of 300K "missing votes" in Maricopa County keeps floating around and is easily debunked by a simple look at the actual turnout data. Was proud to help @Garrett_Archer dispel this for @abc15.

abc15.com/news/political…
@Garrett_Archer @abc15 This was the first midterm election since the turn of the century in which Maricopa County retained a *higher* percentage of its voters from the previous presidential election than the rest of the state did. Doesn't really seem consistent with the conspiracy theory...
@Garrett_Archer @abc15 And then! If you look at the voter turnout numbers, adding 300K "missing votes" to Maricopa's turnout would give you presidential-level turnout in that county in a midterm where *every other county* had midterm-type turnout. As Garrett said, that's...unlikely, to say the least.
Read 4 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
Nov 29
One thing that's extremely funny about the US Senate is that the intra-caucus rivalries are often stronger than the inter-caucus ones. I rarely see the Dem Senators actually say anything nice about Sheldon Whitehouse or Kyrsten Sinema, and most Republicans *loathe* Rick Scott.
Home state senators often spar too. Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe were not fans of each other, and Rubio and Scott have this weird hate triangle with Ron DeSantis. Feinstein and Boxer weren't the best of friends either. Makes Ossoff and Warnock's friendship even more noteworthy
Manchin and Capito get along well. Paul and McConnell, uh, definitely do not. Doesn't take a genius to figure out that Roy Blunt has some choice words for Josh Hawley that he'll never say. And Mitt Romney does *not* like Mike Lee.
Read 4 tweets

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