Thread by @TrentTelenko

When I read this tweet.**

** "Revolution on Military Affairs" 🧵
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https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1599778904860131335

I think of this tweet.

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https://twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/status/1599499059298910208

Making this tweet far more credible.

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https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1599782600347774976

The pattern suggests Ukraine is now using long range, likely propeller driven, 'drone class' cruise missiles for offensive counter-air against Tu-95 Russian strategic bombers.

Cruise missiles that didn't exist at the beginning of the Russo-Ukrainian War.🤯🤯🤯

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The world of 21st century military airpower has just radically changed in a way that cannot be ignored because 1,000km strike radius is a theater level asset a 3rd tier power threw together in a few months with spare change from the couch in the middle of an existential war.🤔
5/

And it is very clear Western airpower leaders have been doing their very best to ignore this reality for years.🤦‍♂️

One or more of these drones was successful in striking a Russian Su-24 at Khmeimim airbase in January 2018, as shown below.
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chicagoboyz.net/archives/57931…

The upgraded SU-24 damaged above cost Russia at least $50 million.

Media sources at the time placed the total damage at anywhere between three strike fighters and seven strike fighters an a Hind Gunship.
popularmechanics.com/military/weapo…
7/

DIY Drones costing maybe $100,000 to a non-state actor put between $50 million to $400 million in Russian high tech aircraft out of action for months.

There are a -lot- of implications in those numbers. Implications this Ukrainian DIY Drone strike on Tu-95 strategic bombers
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...underline in 🔥🔥🔥

The emergence of DIY Assault Drone/Cruise missile production by Syrian warlords, & now AFU, marks a “Revolution in Military Affairs” that rivals the 1967 sinking of the Israeli Destroyer INS Eilat by Egyptian Styx Cruise missiles.

9/

For those who do not understand the reference,
see:

THE SINKING OF THE INS EILAT: 50TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE FIRST SURFACE TO SURFACE ENGAGEMENT WITH ASCM’S
21 October 2017
steeljawscribe.com/2017/10/21/the…
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The US Military is utterly unprepared in terms of continental air defenses for such DIY cruise missiles based in places Cuba or Venezuela.

The lack of active ground based drone defenses & especially the lack of hardened aircraft hangers against North Korean or
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...Iranian and Chinese strikes against reinforcing US expeditionary airpower across the Indo-Pacific is a weakness which will be exploited in the opening days of any future conflict.

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There are cost effective munitions to deal with the cheap & long range drone class propeller driven cruise missile.

This is one👇
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https://twitter.com/MIL_STD/status/1599231748818075648

A $20K laser spot homing missile like the APKWS adapted to ground and air mounts will answer the Shahed-136 thread nicely.

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But you are going to need more than 4-packs.

Seven packs on existing Avenger multiple Stinger launchers is a short term, bare bones, minimum with several such launchers per US Military airfield.

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Think something like the Canadian Multi-Mission Effects Vehicle (MMEV) with two fewer ADATS missiles & two more seven packs of APKWS to give a deep on-mount magazine of 28 cheap laser spot guidance drone killing missiles.

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That the laser spot guidance APKWS rockets also turns the MMEV class launcher into a precision guided indirect fire platform is both an added bonus and a tradition for heavy anti-aircraft weapons.

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The post-Cold War era has seen Western & particularly American militaries engage in unilateral structural disarmament in both ground based air defenses and electronic warfare defenses that went hand in glove during the Cold War.

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Even Iran striking US occupied air bases with drones & ballistic missiles hasn't really penetrated the Pentagon head space that every base it has in the Indo-Pacific, including Diego Garcia and Hawaii, are within range of drone & ballistic missile
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bbc.com/news/av/world-…

...threats & require more sophisticated & comprehensive hardening than USAFE air bases in Germany had during the Cold War.

The proliferation of cheap Global navigation satellite system (GNSS) guidance to propeller cruise missiles reaching 1,500 km & artillery rockets
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...reaching 300 km by 3rd class military powers means everywhere on the planet is late a Cold War Germany threat environment for American military forces.

This will require a massive DoD budget shift of resources from crewed aircraft to ground based air defenses.
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The on-the-ground reality is that 5th Generation fighters costing $30K an hour to fly, & their munitions, have priced themselves out of this air defense mission. They are going to be as dead as those TU-95's were without hardened & well defend infrastructure to operate from.
/End