Ukraine shot drones into two Russian airbases and damaged several strategic bombers, which made Russia big sad. Confirmed Russian losses are 3 men, 1 truck, and 1 damaged bomber. Unconfirmed reports indicate possibly 2 to 4 destroyed bombers, and 3 to 6 more damaged.
Russia only has around 50 of these bombers, and with their rage, they fired more than 70 missiles into Ukraine from various platforms. Including 60 Kh-101, Kh-505, and Kalibr missiles and 10 Kh-22, Kh-59, and Kh-31P missiles. As well as many S-300 missiles.
Ukraine reportedly shot down more than 60 missiles, and Russia claims 17 successfully found their target.
Russia has the resources to fire between 4 and 8 more of these strikes, depending on whose estimates you use.
These missiles struck Kharkiv, Kyiv, Kryvyi Rih, Mykolaiv, etc. And areas around other cities. As a result, large parts of Ukraine lost power, water, and heat.
Zaporizhzhia got hit by several missile strikes today, almost all of which were S-300 from what I can gather, with perhaps one exception. I don't know how many strikes there were, but at least three. 4,5,6?
Ukraine may have secured several towns east of Kupyansk, all considered gray areas previously. However, I will only update my map once I have confirmation.
Russia claims to have pushed Ukraine away from Chernopopivka. However, I have not confirmed any reports of gained or lost territory in this area. Therefore, I assume nothing has changed in either direction without further proof.
The situation in Bakhmut is as bad as ever. Berestove, Yakovlivka, Soledar, and Bakhmutske have no changes to my knowledge. Russia likely lost ground in Bilohorivka over the past four days or so.
To the east of Bakhmut, Russia is attempting to push down Patrisa Lumbumy street, as they have been trying to do since August. They have had some success.
Russia is attempting to break the defensive line into Opytne, but they have had no success. In addition, Russia is shelling Klischiivka, preparing it for future offensive operations. They also attack on the ground, but we should expect a dramatic increase in hostilities and soon.
Ukraine attempted to counterattack in Opytne, but it failed. Same in Kurdyumivka. I believe they also tried in Andriivka, but it is unconfirmed. If they did attempt there, it also failed.
In Mayorsk, Russians claimed to have found evidence of Satanism.
Around Avdiivka, the line appears to have stabilized. In recent days, Ukraine pushed Russia back a bit in Nevelske and especially Pervomaiske.
This weekend there were erroneous claims that Ukraine attacked Pisky. Instead, they attacked Vodyane from the west without success.
Russia is trying to attack Vodyane from the south, but several of their assault groups were reportedly destroyed (which seems like aggressive language, more likely repelled).
The line in Maryinka has also stabilized after successful Russian pushes into the city's center.
This weekend, Ukraine attempted to push north from Novomykhailivka to claim some gray area, but airpower and artillery stopped their advance. Then, with no success, Russia began attacking the town again over the past 48 hours.
In the recent past, Russia tried to attack Vuhledar from Mykilske, but they made no progress. I don't know if they are trying anymore, but there is fighting in the middle of Pavlivka, where Ukraine is attempting to push Russia back out of the city they failed to capture.
I don't think Russia is trying to attack Pavlivka anymore. I wonder if Russia even has a plan right now.
Around the Zaporizhzhia front, I have no particular news. There are small local battles and artillery duels in addition to the missile strikes I mentioned earlier.
Ditto for the Kherson front. Or, more accurately, the Dnipro River front. I don't expect significant changes in this area, regardless of whatever flag-based videos get posted on social media.
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The war in Ukraine took a turn in June of 2023 when Ukraine launched a counter-offensive south in an attempt to break through toward Tokmak. This decision has influenced every event that has followed, leading to disastrous consequences for Ukraine. I will not go into depth about the offensive south, but in short, Ukraine burned through its ammo stockpile and 12 of its best brigades. The offensive badly weakened these brigades and eliminated Ukraine's already limited flexibility regarding rotating troops and responding to threats.
Immediately upon the conclusion of this offensive, Russia launched a large offensive on Avdiivka and Novomykhailivka. Avdiivka is a small suburb northwest of Donetsk city, and Novomykhailivka is a small village south of Donetsk. Russia's ultimate goal was to break through to the city of Kurakhove, which is a small city west of Donetsk and is the westernmost significant defensive position constructed by Ukraine on the Donetsk front. In essence, Russia's goal was to break through the Donetsk defensive line and force Ukraine to defend weakly defended territory.
Ukraine's Donetsk defensive line was well-constructed and relatively strong. As such, it required fewer soldiers to successfully defend and more soldiers to successfully assault. This created a defensive advantage for Ukraine, which helped ease its relative manpower limitations compared to Russia. Once Ukraine is removed from these strong defensive lines, it requires more men to defend the same amount of area and also fewer men to successfully assault, which gives Russia the advantage due to its superior manpower.
To succeed, Russia would have to create a large manpower advantage in a localized area to break through the hardened defensive lines. Once broken, Russia could then splinter its manpower into many smaller attacks and attack many places simultaneously.
I could review the timeline and list the settlements attacked, and my initial draft of this post included this information. But instead, I will cut to the chase. After capturing Aviivka, Russia simultaneously attacked many locations along the entire eastern front. At first, Ukraine could withstand the attacks, but with each lost position, Ukraine became increasingly weaker. Finally, the fall of Ocheretyne, the next railway stop northwest of Avdiivka, fell. This loss opened the floodgates that allowed Russia to flow across the Donbas and capture many settlements in a short time.
Ukraine has now reached a point where it has insufficient manpower to mount a proper defense. Even after shortening the length of its defensive line to increase the density of its troops, it still lacks the strength to stop the Russian advance.
Russians have effectively broken through the line of defense that was behind Vuhledar by getting into the middle of Bohoyavlenka. This defense line I was hoping could last at least 2-3 months, but was lost in 1. Largely due to extremely heavy bombing and horribly insufficient preparation by ukriane.
In essence, Ukraine spent 2 years defending their forward positions to buy time, and used that time doing nothing to prepare the next line of defense.
There really is no excuse Ukraine has for this failure. You have to point the finger at Zelensky. He is personally responsible for this. It was his job to defend Ukraine. You cannot blame "western partners" for failing to make the most basic defenses in your most critical areas.
Yesterday a bunch of Russian trolls were trying to tell me Russia doesn’t strike schools, so here is an example of such a thing. It is the most memorable strike to me, the videos of wounded educators being pulled out of the destroyed school is etched into my memory.
"According to the investigation, on October 5, 2024, at around 3:30 p.m., using methods of warfare prohibited by international law, the enemy drone attacked a bus traveling through the territory of the Rychkiv community of the Sumy district.
As a result of the attack of the occupiers, three passengers were injured - a 65-year-old man and 54-year-old and 63-year-old women."
I am not convinced Russians actually control the area west of the canal in Chasiv Yar. We’ve been geolocating Russians there for a while, if you scroll back through our map you can see the geolocations and you can see the videos. You can see what the area looks like.
That area is not conducive to being controlled by anyone, Ukraine has thick drone coverage, and anyone who passes through the area has a very high chance of dying. Furthermore, the structures are completely destroyed and there arent many suitable places for defense.
I doubt anyone controls this area. I doubt anyone could control the area no matter how much they wanted to or how many resources they put into it.
Russia is currently bombing Kurakhove into nothingness. They are systematically bombing the entire place into dust. Dropping every weapon they have on it. Glide bombs, tactical cruise missiles, artillery, rockets. They are trying to turn it to dust, to completely erase it.
Kurakhove is the anchor to the Ukrainian defensive strategy, it links their eastern line to their southern line. You can think of two concentric circles. There is the outer circle, that is Kurakhove. And the inner circle, that is Kurakhivka. Together they form this anchor.
Between the two is a giant reservoir. Russia is attacking Kurakhivka from the north. They are moving closer and closer to it. And now they are turning Kurakhove to dust.