Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
Dec 6, 2022 22 tweets 8 min read Read on X
Here is a daily update, I'm hoping to get back into posting these after a hiatus. #ukrdailyupdate

Today was a difficult news day. I tried to read as much as I could. I'm sure I missed a lot.

If you would like to view the map: map.ukrdailyupdate.com
Ukraine shot drones into two Russian airbases and damaged several strategic bombers, which made Russia big sad. Confirmed Russian losses are 3 men, 1 truck, and 1 damaged bomber. Unconfirmed reports indicate possibly 2 to 4 destroyed bombers, and 3 to 6 more damaged.
Russia only has around 50 of these bombers, and with their rage, they fired more than 70 missiles into Ukraine from various platforms. Including 60 Kh-101, Kh-505, and Kalibr missiles and 10 Kh-22, Kh-59, and Kh-31P missiles. As well as many S-300 missiles.
Ukraine reportedly shot down more than 60 missiles, and Russia claims 17 successfully found their target.

Russia has the resources to fire between 4 and 8 more of these strikes, depending on whose estimates you use.
These missiles struck Kharkiv, Kyiv, Kryvyi Rih, Mykolaiv, etc. And areas around other cities. As a result, large parts of Ukraine lost power, water, and heat.
Zaporizhzhia got hit by several missile strikes today, almost all of which were S-300 from what I can gather, with perhaps one exception. I don't know how many strikes there were, but at least three. 4,5,6?
Ukraine may have secured several towns east of Kupyansk, all considered gray areas previously. However, I will only update my map once I have confirmation.
Russia claims to have pushed Ukraine away from Chernopopivka. However, I have not confirmed any reports of gained or lost territory in this area. Therefore, I assume nothing has changed in either direction without further proof.
The situation in Bakhmut is as bad as ever. Berestove, Yakovlivka, Soledar, and Bakhmutske have no changes to my knowledge. Russia likely lost ground in Bilohorivka over the past four days or so.
To the east of Bakhmut, Russia is attempting to push down Patrisa Lumbumy street, as they have been trying to do since August. They have had some success.
Russia is attempting to break the defensive line into Opytne, but they have had no success. In addition, Russia is shelling Klischiivka, preparing it for future offensive operations. They also attack on the ground, but we should expect a dramatic increase in hostilities and soon.
Ukraine attempted to counterattack in Opytne, but it failed. Same in Kurdyumivka. I believe they also tried in Andriivka, but it is unconfirmed. If they did attempt there, it also failed.
In Mayorsk, Russians claimed to have found evidence of Satanism.
Around Avdiivka, the line appears to have stabilized. In recent days, Ukraine pushed Russia back a bit in Nevelske and especially Pervomaiske.
This weekend there were erroneous claims that Ukraine attacked Pisky. Instead, they attacked Vodyane from the west without success.
Russia is trying to attack Vodyane from the south, but several of their assault groups were reportedly destroyed (which seems like aggressive language, more likely repelled).
The line in Maryinka has also stabilized after successful Russian pushes into the city's center.
This weekend, Ukraine attempted to push north from Novomykhailivka to claim some gray area, but airpower and artillery stopped their advance. Then, with no success, Russia began attacking the town again over the past 48 hours.
In the recent past, Russia tried to attack Vuhledar from Mykilske, but they made no progress. I don't know if they are trying anymore, but there is fighting in the middle of Pavlivka, where Ukraine is attempting to push Russia back out of the city they failed to capture.
I don't think Russia is trying to attack Pavlivka anymore. I wonder if Russia even has a plan right now.
Around the Zaporizhzhia front, I have no particular news. There are small local battles and artillery duels in addition to the missile strikes I mentioned earlier.
Ditto for the Kherson front. Or, more accurately, the Dnipro River front. I don't expect significant changes in this area, regardless of whatever flag-based videos get posted on social media.

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More from @AndrewPerpetua

May 3
The US saw Russia using nothing but golf carts and ladas in Ukraine and said fuck it, we're going on all in. We're cancelling all armor procurement. Battle golf carts are the future. Who needs firepower when you have bags of meat strapped to a go-cart?
Many Americans will die, and that is a sacrifice the Army is willing to make. Drive the golf cart full steam into a drone swarm. The guys in the back will have tons of ability to shoot back before they die, since there will be no walls or doors to get in the way.
All paths will be heavily mined, which is why we got rid of mraps. The mraps would just get disabled anyway, and then you'd be wishing you had a golf cart to ride. So, instead of wasting our time with armor, lets cut to the chase and deploy you on a golf cart from the start.
Read 5 tweets
May 1
Interesting uptick in Russian dive bomber drones recently. I've wondered why they were developed then suddenly disappeared. They always seemed the most effective type of drone.
Russians are using dive bombers to destroy vehicles. Much more efficient than suiciding the drone and deals the same damage.
Magyar used to use dive bombers to destroy tanks, but stopped for some reason.
Read 8 tweets
Apr 26
Sitting here listening to a news report from the 1970s where the police broke into the wrong house in a police raid, where every American was... normal. They were outraged, they wanted immediate accountability and changes to the law. And then congress... changed the law. Apparently the US had a functional society at some point.
Literally in 4 days there will be a major supreme court case in the US about this. That law from the 70s, the federal government has basically declared the law doesn't count. On Tuesday, four days from now, there is a Supreme Court case where the courts will decide whether that law written by congress is going to be followed or whether the judiciary gets to invent their own laws and ignore congress.
And nobody is talking about this, for some reason. Even after literally yesterday where Trump literally signed an executive order THAT ALLOWS FEDERAL AGENTS TO SEARCH YOUR HOUSE WITHOUT A WARRANT.
Read 6 tweets
Apr 18
I see several things happening in Ukraine right now:

1: Ukraine has pivoted to a drone based defense. Most of the gains you see Russia making right now are coming as a result of one of two things. A: Inferior Ukrainian drone units or B: Overwhelming Numerical Superiority.
When I say an inferior drone unit, I do not mean the pilots are bad, or even necessarily that their construction is bad. It could be as simple as not having access to enough drones, or not having enough pilots. I simply mean the unit isn’t strong enough for the task.
Where we see the strongest drone units, we see Russia struggling to advance, Usually only advancing with extreme numerical superiority and enormous casualties.
Read 15 tweets
Apr 15
I started the weekend with like 40 days of backlog. Ugh. I did 19 days. Meh. Here are the days. Image
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Read 19 tweets
Mar 19
Here are losses for February.

First, the total losses by category. You see significantly more losses for Russia than for Ukraine. This is the first month where Rubicon played a significant part of the Ukrainian losses. Image
Roughly 17% of Ukraine's losses in the month of February were from Rubicon (328 out of 1965). Primarily in Kursk.
Here you can see Tank, Infantry Fighting Vehicle, Armored Personnel Carrier, and MRAP losses by day through the month. Note that Russia uses few MRAPs. Image
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Read 7 tweets

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