Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
Dec 6, 2022 22 tweets 8 min read Read on X
Here is a daily update, I'm hoping to get back into posting these after a hiatus. #ukrdailyupdate

Today was a difficult news day. I tried to read as much as I could. I'm sure I missed a lot.

If you would like to view the map: map.ukrdailyupdate.com
Ukraine shot drones into two Russian airbases and damaged several strategic bombers, which made Russia big sad. Confirmed Russian losses are 3 men, 1 truck, and 1 damaged bomber. Unconfirmed reports indicate possibly 2 to 4 destroyed bombers, and 3 to 6 more damaged.
Russia only has around 50 of these bombers, and with their rage, they fired more than 70 missiles into Ukraine from various platforms. Including 60 Kh-101, Kh-505, and Kalibr missiles and 10 Kh-22, Kh-59, and Kh-31P missiles. As well as many S-300 missiles.
Ukraine reportedly shot down more than 60 missiles, and Russia claims 17 successfully found their target.

Russia has the resources to fire between 4 and 8 more of these strikes, depending on whose estimates you use.
These missiles struck Kharkiv, Kyiv, Kryvyi Rih, Mykolaiv, etc. And areas around other cities. As a result, large parts of Ukraine lost power, water, and heat.
Zaporizhzhia got hit by several missile strikes today, almost all of which were S-300 from what I can gather, with perhaps one exception. I don't know how many strikes there were, but at least three. 4,5,6?
Ukraine may have secured several towns east of Kupyansk, all considered gray areas previously. However, I will only update my map once I have confirmation.
Russia claims to have pushed Ukraine away from Chernopopivka. However, I have not confirmed any reports of gained or lost territory in this area. Therefore, I assume nothing has changed in either direction without further proof.
The situation in Bakhmut is as bad as ever. Berestove, Yakovlivka, Soledar, and Bakhmutske have no changes to my knowledge. Russia likely lost ground in Bilohorivka over the past four days or so.
To the east of Bakhmut, Russia is attempting to push down Patrisa Lumbumy street, as they have been trying to do since August. They have had some success.
Russia is attempting to break the defensive line into Opytne, but they have had no success. In addition, Russia is shelling Klischiivka, preparing it for future offensive operations. They also attack on the ground, but we should expect a dramatic increase in hostilities and soon.
Ukraine attempted to counterattack in Opytne, but it failed. Same in Kurdyumivka. I believe they also tried in Andriivka, but it is unconfirmed. If they did attempt there, it also failed.
In Mayorsk, Russians claimed to have found evidence of Satanism.
Around Avdiivka, the line appears to have stabilized. In recent days, Ukraine pushed Russia back a bit in Nevelske and especially Pervomaiske.
This weekend there were erroneous claims that Ukraine attacked Pisky. Instead, they attacked Vodyane from the west without success.
Russia is trying to attack Vodyane from the south, but several of their assault groups were reportedly destroyed (which seems like aggressive language, more likely repelled).
The line in Maryinka has also stabilized after successful Russian pushes into the city's center.
This weekend, Ukraine attempted to push north from Novomykhailivka to claim some gray area, but airpower and artillery stopped their advance. Then, with no success, Russia began attacking the town again over the past 48 hours.
In the recent past, Russia tried to attack Vuhledar from Mykilske, but they made no progress. I don't know if they are trying anymore, but there is fighting in the middle of Pavlivka, where Ukraine is attempting to push Russia back out of the city they failed to capture.
I don't think Russia is trying to attack Pavlivka anymore. I wonder if Russia even has a plan right now.
Around the Zaporizhzhia front, I have no particular news. There are small local battles and artillery duels in addition to the missile strikes I mentioned earlier.
Ditto for the Kherson front. Or, more accurately, the Dnipro River front. I don't expect significant changes in this area, regardless of whatever flag-based videos get posted on social media.

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More from @AndrewPerpetua

Jul 15
It is insane to me that prop planes were never supplied to Ukraine. People have been so focused on the wrong assets. It has been clear since day 1 that prop planes would be one of the most significant military upgrades Ukraine could get, and if they were provided on Day 1 this war could be very different today. They could have been hunting and destroying recon drones this entire time, denying Russia the ability to plan their missile raids and correct their artillery fire and airstrikes. This would have crippled the Russian military. Instead, we put all of our money into defense, which could not be delivered in the time frames or in the quantities to actually defend ukraine. This failure to provide prop planes is completely infuriating to me.
And, even worse, the people who failed to understand how important the prop planes were back then are still in charge of making decisions today. That alone should worry everyone.
These people just don't understand how this war was going to be fought, is currently fought, or how it will be fought in the future. And yet, somehow, they make decisions on which gear should be invested in.
Read 5 tweets
Jul 12
It is honestly interesting seeing multiple prominent Russian milbloggers talking about the hopelessness of a Russian victory. I think they are starting to realize they goofed.
Sentiments along the lines of “no matter how many resources we push in, the front line barely moves”. “ukrainian and european production is growing faster than ours”. “next year ukraine will have more resources than us”
Tack on the comments about how 152mm artillery is a dead end technology due to lack of investment and development from the 80s onwards. Even their latest models, which Russia cannot even produce due to lack of industrial power, is dramatically inferior to even cheap 155mm pieces
Read 4 tweets
Jul 11
Compare what Ukraine does to help and rebuild after liberating from Russian occupation to what Russia does once they enter and you can see which country is on the right side of history.

“We opened a Resilience Center in Balakliya.

This step is part of the All-Ukrainian Mental Health Program "Are You Okay?", an initiative of Olena Zelenska.

The project was implemented jointly with the Ministry of Social Policy of Ukraine and the Coordination Center for Mental Health of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine, with the support of the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF).

Resilience Centers provide psychosocial support, including group and individual counseling, parenting skills training, social support, crisis intervention, conflict resolution, and support for veterans.

Additionally, the centers offer day care services for children with disabilities, tailored to the needs of each community.

It is also a space for community members to socialize and organize joint events, initiatives and training sessions.

The centers were launched with the financial support of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ).”
Ukraine enters and begins to clear mines, restore electric power and water, repair heating systems, restore hospitals, rebuild schools.

Russia builds filtration camps, steals local land and businesses from the owners, turns schools into barracks, does book burnings, and begins logging the forests and stealing natural resources.
Read 4 tweets
May 31
This is the 243 day of the Russian offensive, in this time they have almost 2900 armored vehicles + artillery destroyed plus 1100 more abandoned. Combined is just under 4000. This is actually an undercount as well, because we don't have enough money to buy all the high res sat images.
In the same time period, Ukraine has lost fewer than 900.
We are absolutely double counting vehicles. Its not intentional, its just inevitable. No matter how much we work to avoid it, it happens. But the vehicles we miss almost certainly dwarf the number of double counts. Like, we bought a high res image of an area where we learned we counted the same vehicle 4 times, but there were also like 40+ vehicles nobody anywhere knew were lost. And even still several dozen of those have never been spotted on any photo or video we can find.
Read 4 tweets
May 26
I have an idea. Every time someone uses the total number of Russian mortar + 122 + 152 ammo production to 155mm production, they have to donate 1/4 of their salary to the Czech ammo purchase. Does that seem fair?
Compare 152 to 155, 122 to 105 and mortars to mortars or stfu and don't say anything at all.
Also, comparing the price of a mortar shell to a 155mm shell: are you stupid?
Read 5 tweets
May 23
Remember that time Romanov posted a video where he shot a howitzer, and then cut to a shell hitting a house? And how the shell that hit that house killed a civilian? Now, I cannot tell you Romanov fired that exact shell, but he wanted you to think he did.

Anywho, unrelatedly, I am sure:
when you are a "journalist" Image
Doing journalism Image
Read 5 tweets

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