Ukraine shot drones into two Russian airbases and damaged several strategic bombers, which made Russia big sad. Confirmed Russian losses are 3 men, 1 truck, and 1 damaged bomber. Unconfirmed reports indicate possibly 2 to 4 destroyed bombers, and 3 to 6 more damaged.
Russia only has around 50 of these bombers, and with their rage, they fired more than 70 missiles into Ukraine from various platforms. Including 60 Kh-101, Kh-505, and Kalibr missiles and 10 Kh-22, Kh-59, and Kh-31P missiles. As well as many S-300 missiles.
Ukraine reportedly shot down more than 60 missiles, and Russia claims 17 successfully found their target.
Russia has the resources to fire between 4 and 8 more of these strikes, depending on whose estimates you use.
These missiles struck Kharkiv, Kyiv, Kryvyi Rih, Mykolaiv, etc. And areas around other cities. As a result, large parts of Ukraine lost power, water, and heat.
Zaporizhzhia got hit by several missile strikes today, almost all of which were S-300 from what I can gather, with perhaps one exception. I don't know how many strikes there were, but at least three. 4,5,6?
Ukraine may have secured several towns east of Kupyansk, all considered gray areas previously. However, I will only update my map once I have confirmation.
Russia claims to have pushed Ukraine away from Chernopopivka. However, I have not confirmed any reports of gained or lost territory in this area. Therefore, I assume nothing has changed in either direction without further proof.
The situation in Bakhmut is as bad as ever. Berestove, Yakovlivka, Soledar, and Bakhmutske have no changes to my knowledge. Russia likely lost ground in Bilohorivka over the past four days or so.
To the east of Bakhmut, Russia is attempting to push down Patrisa Lumbumy street, as they have been trying to do since August. They have had some success.
Russia is attempting to break the defensive line into Opytne, but they have had no success. In addition, Russia is shelling Klischiivka, preparing it for future offensive operations. They also attack on the ground, but we should expect a dramatic increase in hostilities and soon.
Ukraine attempted to counterattack in Opytne, but it failed. Same in Kurdyumivka. I believe they also tried in Andriivka, but it is unconfirmed. If they did attempt there, it also failed.
In Mayorsk, Russians claimed to have found evidence of Satanism.
Around Avdiivka, the line appears to have stabilized. In recent days, Ukraine pushed Russia back a bit in Nevelske and especially Pervomaiske.
This weekend there were erroneous claims that Ukraine attacked Pisky. Instead, they attacked Vodyane from the west without success.
Russia is trying to attack Vodyane from the south, but several of their assault groups were reportedly destroyed (which seems like aggressive language, more likely repelled).
The line in Maryinka has also stabilized after successful Russian pushes into the city's center.
This weekend, Ukraine attempted to push north from Novomykhailivka to claim some gray area, but airpower and artillery stopped their advance. Then, with no success, Russia began attacking the town again over the past 48 hours.
In the recent past, Russia tried to attack Vuhledar from Mykilske, but they made no progress. I don't know if they are trying anymore, but there is fighting in the middle of Pavlivka, where Ukraine is attempting to push Russia back out of the city they failed to capture.
I don't think Russia is trying to attack Pavlivka anymore. I wonder if Russia even has a plan right now.
Around the Zaporizhzhia front, I have no particular news. There are small local battles and artillery duels in addition to the missile strikes I mentioned earlier.
Ditto for the Kherson front. Or, more accurately, the Dnipro River front. I don't expect significant changes in this area, regardless of whatever flag-based videos get posted on social media.
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Sources like warspotting and lostwar withhold losses from their counts when they are not clearly identifiable. Ukraine has pivoted to using heavy bomber drones to destroy vehicles, and posts tremendous numbers of losses per day using this method.
Due to thermals and top down view these losses are only very rarely counted. And when they are counted, it can be many months later when alternate footage appears.
In short, there is not a drop in documented losses, but the methodology used by the loss aggregators is highly conservative and struggles to deal with the types of footage available at the moment. And as a result will lag behind reality.
Kurt Company says they have killed 51 and wounded 57 Russians this month. These guys are situated near Kurdyumivka, and are repelling Russian assaults across the Severskyi Donets canal. I have personally seen about 25 of those 51 killed on video, and I've geolocated around 15.
Ukrainian positions in this area are very well designed, which contribute substantially to their ability to defend. We've seen Ukrainian defenses in other areas, often superior positions, with vastly inferior design and construction fall within minutes or hours.
The main difference you see here is that their firing positions are *above ground* with *interlocking fields of fire* and *trench systems that allow defenders to rapidly displace*.
btw, a huge fraction of the damage we see done every day is not done by fpv drones, it is done by drone dropped bombs. In particular, the heavy bombers like vampire, kazhan, and nemesis. The r18 is getting increasingly popular. And we see more avengers but those are very rare.
avenger is a fixed wing bomber that carriers, i think, 5.5kg payload. most commonly the loadout is either 2-4 medium sized bombs or like 5-8 smaller bombs that it drops as a carpet bombing type thing. It is hard to aim because it is a level bomber. A dive bomber would be better
A dive bomber dropping 5kg bombs would be pretty awesome, to be honest.
Ukraine has two extremely toxic problems that should have been addressed a long time ago, but never were.
First, there is this pervasive idea that being mobilized into the military is basically a death sentence. Which is entirely untrue.
Second, there is this idea that once mobilized, you can no longer contribute to the economy. This is asinine. Of course they can. There are many models of mobilization that allow people to keep their jobs and continue working while also being trained.
For example, taking people, putting them, through a 30 day boot camp, then training them 1-2 weekend per month thereafter. They would continue to work normally. It would create a reserve force. The territorial defense force that Ukraine wanted to have but never made.