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Andrew Perpetua

Dec 6, 2022 • 22 tweets • 8 min read • Read on X

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Here is a daily update, I'm hoping to get back into posting these after a hiatus. #ukrdailyupdate

Today was a difficult news day. I tried to read as much as I could. I'm sure I missed a lot.

If you would like to view the map: map.ukrdailyupdate.com

Ukraine shot drones into two Russian airbases and damaged several strategic bombers, which made Russia big sad. Confirmed Russian losses are 3 men, 1 truck, and 1 damaged bomber. Unconfirmed reports indicate possibly 2 to 4 destroyed bombers, and 3 to 6 more damaged.

Russia only has around 50 of these bombers, and with their rage, they fired more than 70 missiles into Ukraine from various platforms. Including 60 Kh-101, Kh-505, and Kalibr missiles and 10 Kh-22, Kh-59, and Kh-31P missiles. As well as many S-300 missiles.

Ukraine reportedly shot down more than 60 missiles, and Russia claims 17 successfully found their target.

Russia has the resources to fire between 4 and 8 more of these strikes, depending on whose estimates you use.

These missiles struck Kharkiv, Kyiv, Kryvyi Rih, Mykolaiv, etc. And areas around other cities. As a result, large parts of Ukraine lost power, water, and heat.

Zaporizhzhia got hit by several missile strikes today, almost all of which were S-300 from what I can gather, with perhaps one exception. I don't know how many strikes there were, but at least three. 4,5,6?

Ukraine may have secured several towns east of Kupyansk, all considered gray areas previously. However, I will only update my map once I have confirmation.

Russia claims to have pushed Ukraine away from Chernopopivka. However, I have not confirmed any reports of gained or lost territory in this area. Therefore, I assume nothing has changed in either direction without further proof.

The situation in Bakhmut is as bad as ever. Berestove, Yakovlivka, Soledar, and Bakhmutske have no changes to my knowledge. Russia likely lost ground in Bilohorivka over the past four days or so.

To the east of Bakhmut, Russia is attempting to push down Patrisa Lumbumy street, as they have been trying to do since August. They have had some success.

Russia is attempting to break the defensive line into Opytne, but they have had no success. In addition, Russia is shelling Klischiivka, preparing it for future offensive operations. They also attack on the ground, but we should expect a dramatic increase in hostilities and soon.

Ukraine attempted to counterattack in Opytne, but it failed. Same in Kurdyumivka. I believe they also tried in Andriivka, but it is unconfirmed. If they did attempt there, it also failed.

In Mayorsk, Russians claimed to have found evidence of Satanism.

https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1599933034043957248?s=20&t=imN4-ZNqt6CDdWWgfZu-QA

Around Avdiivka, the line appears to have stabilized. In recent days, Ukraine pushed Russia back a bit in Nevelske and especially Pervomaiske.

This weekend there were erroneous claims that Ukraine attacked Pisky. Instead, they attacked Vodyane from the west without success.

Russia is trying to attack Vodyane from the south, but several of their assault groups were reportedly destroyed (which seems like aggressive language, more likely repelled).

The line in Maryinka has also stabilized after successful Russian pushes into the city's center.

This weekend, Ukraine attempted to push north from Novomykhailivka to claim some gray area, but airpower and artillery stopped their advance. Then, with no success, Russia began attacking the town again over the past 48 hours.

In the recent past, Russia tried to attack Vuhledar from Mykilske, but they made no progress. I don't know if they are trying anymore, but there is fighting in the middle of Pavlivka, where Ukraine is attempting to push Russia back out of the city they failed to capture.

I don't think Russia is trying to attack Pavlivka anymore. I wonder if Russia even has a plan right now.

Around the Zaporizhzhia front, I have no particular news. There are small local battles and artillery duels in addition to the missile strikes I mentioned earlier.

Ditto for the Kherson front. Or, more accurately, the Dnipro River front. I don't expect significant changes in this area, regardless of whatever flag-based videos get posted on social media.

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More from @AndrewPerpetua

Andrew Perpetua

@AndrewPerpetua

Nov 23

The news coming from the Velyka Novosilka area is very bad. There is no way to sugar coat it, the area has reached crisis and needs immediate intervention.

In short, Velyka Novosilka is the anchor of the southern defensive line. The line that runs from the Dnipro river to the east towards Donetsk. The Zaporizhzhia line. This west to east defensive line effectively ends in Velyka Novosilka. (note my map hasn't updated for the changes today)

Velyka Novosilka itself should have very good defenses, but the defenses are meant to stop attacks from the south, not the north and east.

Read 7 tweets

Andrew Perpetua

@AndrewPerpetua

Nov 22

Russia paying soldiers lump sums is not a method to get people to join the military, paying them is a way to make people not care about how many soldiers die.

Everyone knows soldiers are dying in huge numbers. But the money makes people think it is a gamble, not a tragedy. Nobody cares about a guy who signed up for quick money and died. They see it as quick easy money coming with huge risks and shrug. It is their own fault for joining.

It is simultaneously a lot of money and very little money. It is so much money that if you spent it wisely, you'd be set for life. But it is so little money most people will spend it all in a few weeks.

Read 4 tweets

Andrew Perpetua

@AndrewPerpetua

Nov 10

I just posted a map update, and many parts of the update have been written about by others already. But one interesting tidbit is the advance of Ukraine in Bilohorivka.

Here you see a Russian FPV Drone strike hitting a Ukrainian trench. You see that the trench crosses a road and has a hook shape. The trench is of relatively new construction, and cannot be seen on google map, nor other public high resolution images of the area. However, on google earth you can see the relative shape of the terrain (the Z axis is magnified 300% to exaggerate terrain features to make them easier to see. You can see that the trench runs along the crest of a hill. You can see the road it crosses, which is slightly lower than the ridge of the hill, on the reverse slope.

map.ukrdailyupdate.com/?lat=48.939375…

On sentinel, which is 10 meter resolution (a very low resolution image with few details), you can see the hook shape of this trench. This image is from October 24th, 2024, which is about 2 weeks ago.

Read 12 tweets

Andrew Perpetua

@AndrewPerpetua

Oct 28

The war in Ukraine took a turn in June of 2023 when Ukraine launched a counter-offensive south in an attempt to break through toward Tokmak. This decision has influenced every event that has followed, leading to disastrous consequences for Ukraine. I will not go into depth about the offensive south, but in short, Ukraine burned through its ammo stockpile and 12 of its best brigades. The offensive badly weakened these brigades and eliminated Ukraine's already limited flexibility regarding rotating troops and responding to threats.

Immediately upon the conclusion of this offensive, Russia launched a large offensive on Avdiivka and Novomykhailivka. Avdiivka is a small suburb northwest of Donetsk city, and Novomykhailivka is a small village south of Donetsk. Russia's ultimate goal was to break through to the city of Kurakhove, which is a small city west of Donetsk and is the westernmost significant defensive position constructed by Ukraine on the Donetsk front. In essence, Russia's goal was to break through the Donetsk defensive line and force Ukraine to defend weakly defended territory.

Ukraine's Donetsk defensive line was well-constructed and relatively strong. As such, it required fewer soldiers to successfully defend and more soldiers to successfully assault. This created a defensive advantage for Ukraine, which helped ease its relative manpower limitations compared to Russia. Once Ukraine is removed from these strong defensive lines, it requires more men to defend the same amount of area and also fewer men to successfully assault, which gives Russia the advantage due to its superior manpower.

To succeed, Russia would have to create a large manpower advantage in a localized area to break through the hardened defensive lines. Once broken, Russia could then splinter its manpower into many smaller attacks and attack many places simultaneously.

I could review the timeline and list the settlements attacked, and my initial draft of this post included this information. But instead, I will cut to the chase. After capturing Aviivka, Russia simultaneously attacked many locations along the entire eastern front. At first, Ukraine could withstand the attacks, but with each lost position, Ukraine became increasingly weaker. Finally, the fall of Ocheretyne, the next railway stop northwest of Avdiivka, fell. This loss opened the floodgates that allowed Russia to flow across the Donbas and capture many settlements in a short time.

Ukraine has now reached a point where it has insufficient manpower to mount a proper defense. Even after shortening the length of its defensive line to increase the density of its troops, it still lacks the strength to stop the Russian advance.

Read 5 tweets

Andrew Perpetua

@AndrewPerpetua

Oct 27

Russians have effectively broken through the line of defense that was behind Vuhledar by getting into the middle of Bohoyavlenka. This defense line I was hoping could last at least 2-3 months, but was lost in 1. Largely due to extremely heavy bombing and horribly insufficient preparation by ukriane.

In essence, Ukraine spent 2 years defending their forward positions to buy time, and used that time doing nothing to prepare the next line of defense.

There really is no excuse Ukraine has for this failure. You have to point the finger at Zelensky. He is personally responsible for this. It was his job to defend Ukraine. You cannot blame "western partners" for failing to make the most basic defenses in your most critical areas.

Read 5 tweets

Andrew Perpetua

@AndrewPerpetua

Oct 22

https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1674778224398864392

Yesterday a bunch of Russian trolls were trying to tell me Russia doesn’t strike schools, so here is an example of such a thing. It is the most memorable strike to me, the videos of wounded educators being pulled out of the destroyed school is etched into my memory.