Theo Keith Profile picture
Dec 6 9 tweets 5 min read
Minnesota's budget surplus is now projected at $17.6 billion between now and June 2025, per @MMBCommunicates.

The projections will help #mnleg decide short-term spending plans and a two-year budget.
@MMBCommunicates Higher-than-expected tax collections and #mnleg's failure to strike deals in 2022 have contributed to another record surplus, which Democrats now have control over.

Initial story ahead of news conferences that start at 11:45 a.m.:

fox9.com/news/minnesota…
@MMBCommunicates There's the full budget forecast: mn.gov/mmb-stat/000/a… Image
@MMBCommunicates "The current baseline forecast hinges critically on the Fed’s ability to curb inflation."

You can see how Minnesota's forecasting firm, IHS, was wildly off with its 2022 inflation prediction: Image
@MMBCommunicates For you Fed watchers: IHS expects the Federal Reserve will keep its target interest rate at or near 5% into early 2024: Image
@MMBCommunicates Minnesota's forecasting firm predicts a mild, three-quarter recession starting in the 4Q 2022 (the current quarter).

Mild because IHS projects only a slight decline in U.S. GDP + flat employment thru 2023 and 2024.
@MMBCommunicates Minnesota will save an estimated $280 million this biennium (off a $20.5 billion expectation) because of lower student counts in public schools, which are expected to continue declining. Image
@MMBCommunicates Minnesota is sitting on such a big pile of cash that it's making more cash as interest rates rise. That's helping fuel the surplus: Image
@MMBCommunicates Don't expect Minnesota's housing crunch to get better in the near term.

Housing starts, already tumbling this year, will fall further in 2023, per projections: Image

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More from @TheoKeith

Dec 6
Gov. Tim Walz, speaking to reporters, mentions four priorities for the surplus:

-Expanding child care
-Relief to Minnesotans for inflation, in the form of rebates
-Road and bridge funding
-Public school funding

"We can do all of these things," he says. "It isn't either-or."
Walz says he supports excluding more Social Security income from state tax in 2023.

But he's not committing to a full elimination, which was part of the spring 2022 deal that never passed.
Walz says he's going to propose $1,000 rebate checks per adult again despite being rejected by #mnleg in 2022.

He's open to changing the income limits he proposed earlier this year.
Read 5 tweets
Sep 21
.@MNLegAud releases audit of $200 million in state money given by @mnhealth to health care providers during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Overview below. Report here: auditor.leg.state.mn.us/fad/pdf/fad220…
@mnhealth .@mnhealth assigned 35 staffers to review grant applications and recommend awards, but failed to comply with state requirements and get conflict of interest disclosures from the people, auditors found.

This left the state open to potential fraud and abuse, auditors said.
@mnhealth .@mnhealth says the people *did* file conflict disclosures, but the agency didn't retain electronic records of them. That's been fixed, health officials say in their response to the auditor's findings.
Read 4 tweets
May 21
Details of #mnleg's deal on taxes:

-Cuts individual income tax rate from 5.35% to 5.10%

-Makes all Social Security income exempt from state taxes

-Makes renter's tax credit refundable

house.leg.state.mn.us/comm/docs/1u-H…
There are several other smaller provisions, but those three together account for $3.4 billion of the $4 billion bill.
Conference committee due back within the hour to discuss (you know the drill on the timing, though).
Read 5 tweets
May 20
“There is enough time,” House Speaker @melissahortman says about concerns that some of the largest bills, like health and human services, won’t get done by Sunday.

“Everybody has to get realistic,” Hortman says, and no one will get 75-80% of what they want. #mnleg
I asked which issue areas are in the worst shape.

Hortman says K-12, public safety, health and human services are “tied.”

That’s…a lot. #mnleg
Hortman says the tax bill will definitely have an expansion of the renter’s credit and an individual income tax cut.

That’s about all we know for certain. #mnleg
Read 4 tweets
Apr 25
NEWS: St. Paul Police say DFL Rep. John Thompson showed up after officers pulled over his daughter Sunday afternoon, screamed and yelled at police, identified himself as a state lawmaker and handed out his business card during a "chaotic" scene.

(Thread)
Officers say they stopped Thompson's adult daughter for erratic driving and expired registration. Cops smelled marijuana. As more officers arrived, so did Thompson.

To diffuse tensions, police say they decided to charge Thompson’s daughter out of custody and let them both go.
Police are asking the St. Paul city attorney to charge Thompson's daughter with 3rd degree DWI-test refusal, a gross misdemeanor.

Thompson does not face charges, though police say the case is open.
Read 7 tweets
Apr 24
Light #mnleg attendance for Gov. Tim Walz’s State of the State speech tonight given the Sunday evening timing.

I counted fewer than half of the 67 senators entering the House chamber.
Former Gov. Mark Dayton and his wife are in attendance. Though he used a cane, Dayton is moving much better than during his final days as governor.
Gov. Tim Walz urges #mnleg to pass rebate checks but says he's open to income tax cuts -- though excluding wealthy people.

"They don’t need a tax cut," Walz says.

Senate GOP tax bill doesn't have an income cap.
Read 5 tweets

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