Thread by @seshanm

#ABumblingWest
* The idea was to use the Western stranglehold on tankers and Insurance, to compel them to ensure that Russian Oil is exported only at the capped price of $60.

* This cap which has just come into force was in discussion from May.
indianexpress.com/article/explai…

* But over this period Russia's Urals Crude price is hovering around $68, close to the cap. Result there will be little impact.

*Russia’s cost of production of its main crude variants such as the Urals is $20-$44 a barrel. So, a $60 cap is no real hardship.

*  “it is also possible for the shipping industry to misrepresent or obscure the origin of its cargo” and there are historical precedents to that, to get around the cap.

* Also exemptions for Sakhalin 2 [Japan funded] & blends, could lead to leakage in the cap.

And this does not take into account "the routing of Russian oil, outside of the price cap remit, through non-European shipping channels to countries such as China, Turkey, Indonesia and India."

Meanwhile, "Moscow’s current account surplus this year is projected to be above $250 billion, second only to China’s. And the price cap at $60 does not really impact its earnings for now, with crude prices hovering where they are currently. "

"Despite USA-led sanctions on Russia, post its invasion of Ukraine, India has decided to not just continue with but also double its trade with Moscow in the “near foreseeable future”. New Delhi’s stand,for now,has been to remain non-committal on any such pricing cap arrangement"