Thread by @bluestein

Not surprisingly, Warnock has a huge early vote advantage as some counties begin to report their totals from the week of early-voting + mail ballots. We are closely watching how Walker does re: Election Day voting — and whether he outdoes his November tally. #gapol #gasen

“Get your coffee,” says a Republican strategist as more exurban and rural rallies come in — and the Democrat’s edge tightens. #gapol #gasen

Walker is underperforming in some small, rural counties so far -- obv a good sign for Warnock. We won't really have a clear look until more metro ATL votes come in -- particularly the Democratic stronghold of DeKalb, Warnock's best path to victory. #gapol

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1600289801441226752

We're expecting all early and mail-ballots before 10 in Fulton County, Georgia's most populous county, where officials are aiming for the entire tally by midnight. But we know that Fulton is also notoriously late, too ... #gapol #gasen

#gapol #gasen ajc.com/politics/get-y…

Think about it this way: Voting is habit-forming, and Georgians are now *very* used to casting ballots in consequential races. Warnock has been on the ballot five times -- since Nov. 2020 #gapol #gasen

https://twitter.com/BenWessel/status/1600296675574415361

As the returns in, keep in mind that DeKalb, the all-important Democratic bastion, has still hardly reported any votes. How well Warnock performs in DeKalb — where there was apparently robust Election Day turnout — will be decisive. #gapol #gasen

Baldwin is Georgia's most competitive county. Check out this @ajc piece that gave a closer look at where voters stand in the "swingiest" place in the state: ajc.com/politics/how-v… #gapol #gasen

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1600299684928819200

Walker’s path is narrowing as more GOP strongholds come in — and big D bastions remain outstanding. Walker must rely on huge exurban gains and low Election Day turnout in metro Atlanta. One R strategist threw in the towel. “It’s all over but the counting.” #gapol #gasen

But as of now it’s razor tight and no one from either campaign is ready to take a victory lap. It’s why the outstanding votes in GOP Cherokee and Forsyth — and Democratic Clayton, DeKalb and Fulton — will be so telling. #gapol #gasen

When they come in, DeKalb and Clayton will go overwhelmingly for Warnock. The Democrat won Clayton by 76 points in November and DeKalb by 70. Fulton will be marginally closer -- the Democrat carried the county by 49 points four weeks ago. #gapol #gasen

ajc.com/politics/with-…

A big trove of votes is still outstanding in these key Democratic strongholds. So far, exurbs and rural areas have been a mixed bag for Walker. Will they be enough to overcome the decisive Warnock edge in metro ATL counties still far from complete? #gapol #gasen

It’s still tight — but there are still so many votes outstanding in Democratic areas that Republicans are losing hope. “Stick a fork in it,” says one strategist. Wasserman has seen enough … #gapol #gasen

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1600317857081872384