Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
Dec 7, 2022 7 tweets 2 min read Read on X
An update for December 6th, kinda short. First, I see many sources saying Russia's main line is set up 2km south of Kreminna, and that Ukraine has cleared the forested area north of Kreminna. So I have updated the map thusly.
There was a significant attack by Russia on Bilohorivka today. They made a legitimate attempt to break through the defenses. From what I understand, it failed. I know the first wave failed completely, but I've heard very little about the second wave.
I've updated the Russian area of control around Bakhmut. This doesn't really represent a change in the situation, moreso a clarification. But Russia is advancing slowly.
There was massive shelling of the Novomykhailivka area.
Ukraine has reported shelling in Bilohrudove for several days in a row, I've marked it contested.
Last night Russia launched a wave of Shahed drones. I don't know how many they fired, or really what the targets were. There were reports of drones near Kyiv (not in Kyiv, south west of the city).
And Ukraine reports that they shot down 8 somewhere in Dnipropetrovs'k, presumably near Kryvyi Rih or Dnipro. Ukraine reports they shot down 14 drones total. I have no idea if there was damage, or where the damage was or what the targets were.

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More from @AndrewPerpetua

Jan 7
Sources like warspotting and lostwar withhold losses from their counts when they are not clearly identifiable. Ukraine has pivoted to using heavy bomber drones to destroy vehicles, and posts tremendous numbers of losses per day using this method.
Due to thermals and top down view these losses are only very rarely counted. And when they are counted, it can be many months later when alternate footage appears.
In short, there is not a drop in documented losses, but the methodology used by the loss aggregators is highly conservative and struggles to deal with the types of footage available at the moment. And as a result will lag behind reality.
Read 7 tweets
Dec 28, 2024
THE UKRAINIAN DRONE HAS TWO SHOTGUNS.
im giggling
lol
Read 4 tweets
Dec 27, 2024
Kurt Company says they have killed 51 and wounded 57 Russians this month. These guys are situated near Kurdyumivka, and are repelling Russian assaults across the Severskyi Donets canal. I have personally seen about 25 of those 51 killed on video, and I've geolocated around 15. Image
Image
Ukrainian positions in this area are very well designed, which contribute substantially to their ability to defend. We've seen Ukrainian defenses in other areas, often superior positions, with vastly inferior design and construction fall within minutes or hours.
The main difference you see here is that their firing positions are *above ground* with *interlocking fields of fire* and *trench systems that allow defenders to rapidly displace*. Image
Read 10 tweets
Dec 27, 2024
We have significant map updates. West of Velyka Novosilka the Russians have advanced across two farm fields. Image
Image
Russians are gradually advancing west toward Rozlyv.

map.ukrdailyupdate.com/?lat=47.957306…Image
Image
Read 6 tweets
Dec 19, 2024
btw, a huge fraction of the damage we see done every day is not done by fpv drones, it is done by drone dropped bombs. In particular, the heavy bombers like vampire, kazhan, and nemesis. The r18 is getting increasingly popular. And we see more avengers but those are very rare.
avenger is a fixed wing bomber that carriers, i think, 5.5kg payload. most commonly the loadout is either 2-4 medium sized bombs or like 5-8 smaller bombs that it drops as a carpet bombing type thing. It is hard to aim because it is a level bomber. A dive bomber would be better
A dive bomber dropping 5kg bombs would be pretty awesome, to be honest.
Read 4 tweets
Dec 11, 2024
Ukraine has two extremely toxic problems that should have been addressed a long time ago, but never were.

First, there is this pervasive idea that being mobilized into the military is basically a death sentence. Which is entirely untrue.
Second, there is this idea that once mobilized, you can no longer contribute to the economy. This is asinine. Of course they can. There are many models of mobilization that allow people to keep their jobs and continue working while also being trained.
For example, taking people, putting them, through a 30 day boot camp, then training them 1-2 weekend per month thereafter. They would continue to work normally. It would create a reserve force. The territorial defense force that Ukraine wanted to have but never made.
Read 5 tweets

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