Thread by @cjsnowdon

This time last year, a bunch of scientists, activists and journalists tried to bounce a heavily vaccinated population into another lockdown. Here's a day-by day reminder of how it happened. 🧵

7 December 2021: At a meeting of SAGE, it is claimed - based on unpublished modelling - that the peak in hospital admissions is 'highly likely' to exceed 1,000 a day. This turns out to be correct. gov.uk/government/pub…

They acknowledge 'some early indications from South Africa' that Omicron is milder, but essentially dismiss this.

Doctors in South Africa have been patiently explaining that Omicron is milder for the last ten days. independent.co.uk/news/health/om…

December 8: As so often happened, the SAGE minutes were leaked to the BBC. They quote: "decision makers will need to consider response measures urgently to reduce transmission if the aim is to reduce the likelihood of unsustainable pressure on the NHS." bbc.co.uk/news/health-59…

That evening (after the resignation of Allegra Stratton), Boris Johnson announces the implementation of Plan B, making masks mandatory in some indoor venues, Covid certification in large venues and advising WFH. theguardian.com/world/2021/dec…

Doctors in South Africa continue to argue that the Omicron wave indicates that the new variant is a "far less severe" form of the virus. telegraph.co.uk/global-health/…

SAGE's John Edmunds says of Omicron: "This is as bad news as you can possibly get, quite frankly." news.sky.com/story/covid-19…

Sky News quotes a SAGE document saying: "If Omicron in the UK combines increased transmissibility and immune escape, irrespective of severity, it is highly likely that very stringent measures would be required to… control growth and keep R (the reproduction number) below 1."

There is no explanation for why why keeping R below 1 would be a policy goal in a country that has been vaccinating people for a year.

Tim Spector, who has been asking the public to report their coughs and sneezes on his app, says that Omicron is "causing milder cold-like symptoms" but says the introduction of Plan B is "too little, too late". news.sky.com/story/covid-19…

Deputy Labour leader Angela Rayner says the Plan B restrictions do not go far enough.

https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1468851435400048645?s=20&t=Jf0on3YxM9-RyqpxESHDcQ

Deepti Gurdasani, a Diet Sage adjacent epidemiologist, and Susan Michie, a communist, also say the government needs to go further. theguardian.com/world/2021/dec…

Meanwhile, the Guardian reports that "As of 6 December, all 212 confirmed Omicron cases across 18 European Union countries were classed as asymptomatic or mild." theguardian.com/world/2021/dec…

10 December: Another leak, this time from UKHSA, says that "under a range of plausible scenarios, stringent action is needed on or before 18 December 2021 if doubling times stay at 2.5 days." theguardian.com/world/2021/dec…

"Even if doubling times rise to around 5 days, stringent action is likely still needed in December." On the same day, UKHSA publishes a Disco Stu model showing infections reaching 1,000,000 a day by Christmas Eve. assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

(It's hard to say what the peak infection rate was but the *total* number of infections on 23/12 was two million, rising to a peak of 3.7 million in January. The number of new, daily infections is clearly a fraction of this.) ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…

Neil Ferguson tells the Guardian that "most of the projections we have right now are that the Omicron wave could very substantially overwhelm the NHS, getting up to peak levels of admissions of 10,000 people per day." (They peaked at less than a quarter of this.)

He adds: "In the context of Delta, I think the government had a clear policy that hospitalisations were manageable, deaths were relatively low, and they did not want to restrict people’s freedoms any more than they had to. I think that calculus has now changed with Omicron."

With a heavy heart, Deepti says a lockdown is now inevitable.

A government spokesperson says: "There are no plans for further restrictions. Plan B is the proportionate approach given what we know at this stage about the Omicron variant." theguardian.com/world/2021/dec…

Not everyone has got the "projection not a prediction" memo.

December 11: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine makes projections based on a range of scenarios. All of them later turn out to be too pessimistic. independent.co.uk/news/health/om…

One of the authors says: "We may have to endure more stringent restrictions to ensure the NHS is not overwhelmed. Nobody wants to endure another lockdown, but last-resort measures may be required to protect health services." theguardian.com/world/2021/dec…

None of the modelled scenarios assume that Omicron is less severe "due to lack of data" but the evidence continues to mount.

South Africa has been on its lowest level of Covid restrictions (level 1) since 1 October and the government sees no reason to change that. independent.co.uk/news/health/om…

12 December: UK alert level rises to 4 for the first time since May. bbc.co.uk/news/uk-596299…

In Scotland, new restrictions are reported to be 'likely'.

Boris Johnson appears on TV at 8pm to declare an "Omicron emergency" and warns that "there is a tidal wave of Omicron coming". He sets a target for everyone over 18 to have a booster available by end of the month. bbc.co.uk/news/uk-596315…

23 million people in the UK have already received a booster jab and another 23 million are eligible for one.

13 December: New modelling from Warwick University projects 30,000 hospital admissions a day under Plan B if, as is still being assumed, Omicron is as severe a Delta. 15,000 are projected if it is half as severe. assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

Even with a 3 month post-xmas lockdown, the model projects a peak of 15,000 admissions. In fact, the peak turned out to be 2,300, many of which were incidental (i.e. not caused by Covid).

The UK records its first Omicron death, leading one political journalist to infer that Omicron must be as lethal as Delta. 🥴

The first patient to die from Omicron was a unvaccinated septuagenarian conspiracy theorist. order-order.com/2021/12/16/fir…

With a parliamentary vote due on 14 December, 65 MPs say they will vote against the Plan B restrictions. metro.co.uk/2021/12/12/cov…

With a backbench revolt, Partygate, and the prospect of another lockdown, it is an exciting time to be a political journalist.

Apologies to Beth Rigby (above) who was actually paraphrasing Boris Johnson. bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-596…

14 December: Boris Johnson faces his biggest Tory rebellion in the House of Commons as 99 MPs vote against Covid passes, but it passes with the help of Labour support. standard.co.uk/news/uk/boris-…

Dr. Angelique Coetzee, chair of the South African Medical Association, says: "Tough lockdown restrictions could end up doing more harm than good. Omicron could potentially be of great help to us". order-order.com/quote/chair-of…

Professor Robert Dingwall says: "The omicron situation seems to be increasingly absurd. There is obviously a lot of snobbery about South African science and medicine but their top people are as good as any you would find in a more universally developed country."

"They clearly don’t feel that the elite panic over here is justified, even allowing for the demographic differences in vulnerability – which are probably more than cancelled by the higher vaccination rate."

"My gut feeling is that omicron is very much like the sort of flu pandemic we planned for – a lot of sickness absence from work in a short period, which will create difficulties for public services and economic activity, but not of such a severity as to be a big problem...

...for the NHS and the funeral business." Data from South Africa show that vaccines are less effective at preventing Omicron infection but are holding up in terms of preventing hospitalisations. telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/12/1…

15 December: At a Downing Street briefing, Chris Whitty says: "There are several things we don't know, but all the things that we do know are bad." He claims South Africa is seeing fewer hospitalisations because of high immunity from previous waves. huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/chris-wh…

By this time, 29 million people in England have had two doses of a Covid vaccine and 21 million people have had a booster.

Based on modelling, SAGE are working on the assumption that deaths will peak at 600-6,000 a day without further restrictions (they actually peaked at 210). gov.uk/government/pub…

Even with full lockdown, the upper estimates for deaths and hospitalisations exceed anything England has seen before. It's as if the vaccines had never been invented.

SAGE are now more or less openly lobbying for a lockdown. gov.uk/government/pub…

SAGE continue to dismiss the evidence from their South African colleagues.

Diet Sage, meanwhile, call for an immediate lockdown.

In an 'Emergency Statement', Diet Sage say: "The opportunity for early action has been lost and the time for further delay is over... we now call for an immediate circuit break to then enable limited mixing from the 25 to 28th December." independentsage.org/emergency-stat…

The Daily Mail pitches it as 'Boris versus the scientists'. Mid-wits have no doubt whose side they're on.

SAGE are working on the assumption that cases are doubling every two days and - crucially - will continue to do so. However, in Gauteng, South Africa - the epicentre of the Omicron outbreak - cases have peaked and are just beginning to fall. dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1…

Within days, the number of new infections in South Africa as a whole will begin falling sharply.

Diet Sage mathematician has the weight of the world on his shoulders.

James O'Brien thinks projections from models are irrefutable facts.

Deepti reckons that this wave will be worse than any previous wave.

... so does WHO Special Envoy on COVID-19, David Nabarro.

Diet Sage's Christina Pagel has done the sums.

On Channel 4 News, Pagel says the doubling time is now just 1.5 days. (This seems unlikely. The number of *recorded* cases had doubled since 6th December and would double once more before the end of the year.) channel4.com/news/omicron-c…

A new caveat is added to the 'million infections a day by xmas' model.

Mark Drakeford announces that nightclubs will be closed from 27 December. Also reintroduces one way systems and two metre social distancing. walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-new…

Deepti once again declares a lockdown "inevitable" and blames everyone else.

Self-declared parent of Diet Sage, Carole Cadwalladr, is still LARPing March 2020. bmj.com/content/bmj/37…

Diet Sage continue to call for a "circuit breaker" lockdown.

Sage's Robert West (husband of Sage and Diet Sage's Susan Michie) predicts disaster.

Joy Morrissey MP has made herself unpopular with midwits for saying that politicians should make political decisions (a view shared, officially, by the modellers themselves). theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/d…

Meanwhile, the assumption of infinite exponential growth in a population with widespread immunity is taking a knock in South Africa.

South Africa Hospitalization Rate Plunges in Omicron Wave bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

However, a new report from Imperial College is reported to have found no evidence that Omicron is less severe than Delta. ft.com/content/020534…

Imperial College's Report 49 says: "We find no evidence (for both risk of hospitalisation attendance and symptom status) of Omicron having different severity from Delta, though data on hospitalisations are still very limited." imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial…

The report is based on just 24 hospitalisations for Omicron in the UK and is edited a few days later.

Neil Ferguson reportedly says that new restrictions will soon be needed and the best case scenario is a peak of 3,000 deaths a day. dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1…

Ireland's version of Diet Sage calls for a partial lockdown to avoid a lockdown. independent.ie/irish-news/hea…

In the UK, there is no majority support for new restrictions, even among the misanthropes who do YouGov surveys.

With one week until Christmas Day, the Observer ups the ante one last time, reporting a projection of two million infections a day unless the government locks down. theguardian.com/world/2021/dec…

Sage is indeed projecting a daily peak in infections of between 600,000 and 2 million.

Sage minutes, 16/12/22: "If the aim is to reduce the levels of infection in the population and prevent hospitalisations reaching these levels, more stringent measures would need to be implemented very soon." gov.uk/government/pub…

Tory MP and doctor Dan Poulter calls for "measures in place sooner rather than later ... I hope the prime minister will listen to the scientists and the medics on the frontline who are seeing the real impact of this pandemic."

Lib Dem leader Ed Davey says: "We cannot allow the prime minister to sit on his hands while the NHS and businesses are on the brink of collapse."

Shadow health secretary Wes Streeting says: "Boris Johnson cannot allow his weakened authority within his party to prevent him from taking the decisions that might be necessary to protect public health."

Dr Stephen Griffin says: "This is a repetition of past failings."

Lord Victor Adebowale, chairman of the NHS Confederation, says: "The fact of the matter is we should be taking the precautionary principle. We should be protecting our NHS and our public services." mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/d…

Sage's Stephen Reichter says: "all the science suggests that (Plan B is) not going to be enough ... things are closing down anyway, because of the spread of infection. So I think we need to act now." inews.co.uk/news/circuit-b…

Kit Yates says: "the most sensible thing to do now in order to give people the best shot at having a relatively normal Christmas .. would be to restrict all indoor hospitality until Christmas and for the Government to step in and pick up the tab." express.co.uk/comment/expres…

The Netherlands goes into a four week lockdown.

https://twitter.com/BNOFeed/status/1472271513436889091?s=20&t=dN74T3VI-WVAENBpJwz1Kg

Observer columnist says "the gloomier forecasts of Sage epidemiologists have become harder to dispute" and predicts a U-turn from the government as happened a year earlier. theguardian.com/world/2021/dec…

The Guardian claims that "ministers are considering a ‘circuit breaker’ in England". theguardian.com/world/2021/dec…

Sky News reports that "Officials are drawing up plans for two weeks of 'circuit breaker' measures after Christmas". news.sky.com/story/covid-19…

However, new data from South Africa provides strong evidence that the Omicron wave was much less severe than the two previous waves.

With infections falling at the epicentre of Omicron, even Deepti has a moment of doubt.

19 December: Statement from the modelling arm of Sage essentially offers the government the choice between a short lockdown and a long lockdown. gov.uk/government/pub…

The Guardian's science editor says "the scientific case for more restrictions is overwhelming". theguardian.com/politics/2021/…

Health secretary Sajid Javid won't rule out a lockdown but says: "We do have to challenge data and underlying assumptions, I think that is appropriate, and take into account a broader set of facts." bbc.co.uk/news/uk-597186…

London mayor Sadiq Khan says more restrictions are "inevitable". bbc.co.uk/news/uk-597186…

20 December: Sage belatedly recognise the improved situation in Gauteng but don't read much into it. They continue to push for a 'circuit breaker'. gov.uk/government/pub…

France has closed nightclubs, Ireland has introduced an 8pm curfew and Denmark has closed cinemas, theatres and concert halls. metro.co.uk/2021/12/20/chr…

Boris Johnson says the 'situation is extremely difficult' and the 'arguments either way are very finely balanced'. He is reportedly considering a two-week circuit-breaker lockdown in England after Christmas. dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1…

105 million doses of the vaccine later, the #FBPE community are still reliving December 2020.

Richard Murphy, the inventor of chinny reckonomics, joins the fray.

As it turned out - and was already becoming obvious - the best case scenarios were too doomy and too gloomy.

21 December: 'Scientists have reacted with dismay to Boris Johnson’s decision not to impose fresh restrictions to curb the spread of Omicron'. theguardian.com/world/2021/dec…

Christina Pagel of Diet Sage writes an op-ed for the Guardian with Deepti Gurdasani and Martin McKee, saying "we have a duty of care to the NHS" and "we need to act now". theguardian.com/commentisfree/…

They say: "The only thing that could work in time is a short circuit breaker to limit indoor social interaction (and return the rule of six when outside, while keeping outdoor hospitality, shops and schools open), as proposed by Independent Sage and Sage."

Nicola Sturgeon announces new restrictions on public gatherings starting on Boxing Day. gov.scot/publications/c…

Sage's Robert West says the government is betting against the odds.

Deepti blames the government and the media.

An outstanding late contender for the Didn't Happen of the Year awards from Diet Sage's Kit Yates.

The Daily Mail reports that Boris Johnson has decided against any more restrictions over Christmas as a result of opposition from the Cabinet.

December 22: Warwick Uni puts out another model projecting that Omicron patients will take up every hospital bed in England even if Omicron is half as severe. assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

LSHTM put out a model projecting over 1,000 deaths a day if Omicron is 30% less severe. assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

But the game is up. Boris Johnson confirms that there will be no new restrictions over Christmas. He also cuts the self-isolation period from 10 days to seven. theguardian.com/politics/2021/…

Johnson: "In view of the continuing uncertainty about several things – the severity of Omicron, uncertainty about the hospitalisation rate or the impact of the vaccine rollout or the boosters, we don’t think today that there is enough evidence to justify any tougher measures".

Keir Starmer, whose position has been ambiguous throughout, says: "The numbers are a cause for concern. [But] the hospitalisations are different than they were [in 2020]." mirror.co.uk/news/politics/…

Sage finally admit that Omicron is less severe than Delta and say they consider the "100% severity scenario to be highly unlikely." gov.uk/government/pub…

Imperial College then publish a study which concludes that "Omicron cases have a 15-20% reduced risk of
any hospitalisation and a 41% (95% CI: 37%-45%) reduced risk of a hospitalisation resulting in a stay of 1
or more nights". assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

This follows a study from South Africa published as a pre-print the previous day, with similar findings (medrxiv.org/content/10.110…), and is big news. theguardian.com/world/2021/dec…

Prof Neil Ferguson, one of the authors of the study, says: "It is clearly good news, to a degree." However, he warned the reduction was "not sufficient to dramatically change the modelling".

Not everyone is pleased.

All three of these assumptions turned out to be correct.

This "narrative" also turned out to be correct.

It's time to end this thread because 22 December was really the end of the story. Lockdown was averted and there was little appetite for one by the new year.

Panicking about Omicron soon became the preserve of politically motivated bad actors and the perpetually hysterical.

Despite many more infections, the Omicron wave was far less deadly than previous waves.

Hospital occupancy peaked at half the level of the previous year and many more patients were there 'with Covid' rather than because of Covid.

All the models were miles off, even the most optimistic ones.

Scientists still debate how much 'milder' Omicron is than Delta. People weren't wrong when they said that a reduction in severity could easily be cancelled out by an increase in the sheer number of infections. So why didn't that happen?

It seems to me that both the models and the likes of Diet Sage underestimated the protection provided by immunity from both prior infection and vaccination. Most people had had Covid once or twice by Dec 21 and the vast majority had had at least two jabs.

In the course of December 2021 alone, 13 million people received their booster shot. This was an incredible effort but was treated almost as a sideshow by those calling for another lockdown.

Among the commentariat, there was a tendency to relive December 2020 when many of the people telling them not to worry had indeed been wrong. The media was already obsessed with 'partygate' and wanted more drama.

There was a clear bias towards bad news among Sage members. It was a fast-moving situation and most data was provisional, but Sage attached strong likelihoods to dubious claims (e.g. 'doubling every 2 days') while dismissing evidence about lower hospitalisation rates in S.A.

This was embodied by Chris Whitty who, in one of the most shameful episodes, said "there are several things we don't know, but all the things that we do know are bad." bbc.co.uk/news/av/health…

The head of the South African Medical Association later said that she was urged to keep quiet about Omicron being less severe. nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19…

I was talking this month to Harvard professor of epidemiology Bill Hanage about what happened last year and what’s happening in China now. Have a listen.

I’ve written about the near-miss of December 2021 here. spiked-online.com/2022/12/23/how…